The Chinese-American "rare-earth war" entered the 7th day, Australia sent foreign aid to the United States, can it really solve Trump's burning urge?
Since the Chinese Ministry of Commerce issued new rules on rare-earth export controls on October 9, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent has been in a hurry, warning and threatening to take action.
The US's anxiety is not groundless. This tension stems from the United States 'deep dependence on China's rare earths:
A F-35 fighter requires hundreds of kilograms of rare earth to make hidden coatings and radar systems, and Tesla's electric vehicle's drive engines are inseparable from rare earth permanent magnets, and the supply chain of these core materials has long been dominated by China.
What worries the United States even more is that China's control accurately covers heavy rare earth elements such as holmium and erbium and key equipment such as centrifugal extractors, which just hit the "soft spot" of the U.S. industrial chain.
Just as Bezent called for allies to join forces, Australia took the initiative.
On October 16, Australia Treasury Secretary Chalmers made a clear statement during a meeting with US officials in Washington: “Australia is fully capable of meeting the needs of the U.S. and other markets around the world.”
It implies that no matter how much rare earth the U.S. wants, Australia can provide a stable supply.
Earlier, Australian ambassador to the United States, Land Quinn, said that Australia has sufficient mining power to be ready to help the United States reduce its reliance on China.
From this point of view, Australia’s bottom line seems to be good enough.
As a country with the highest reserves of rare earth in the world, its mining companies do have mature experience in the mining field, and have even cooperated with American companies to build a rare earth separation plant in Texas, the United States.
But reality quickly poured cold water on this enthusiasm- Even if the U.S. and all its allies consider rare earth to be a national project, it will take at least five years to catch up with China. These words from Marina Chang, a key mineral researcher in Australia, accurately pointed out the embarrassing situation of US-Australia cooperation.
This is not a rumor, but is based on China’s profound advantage in the rare-earth industry.
The Chinese Coloured Metals Association has pointed out that China's rare-earth advantages are more reflected in technology, separation technology is the world's leading, leaving almost all Western similar enterprises in the competition.
In rare earth separation, for example, key series extraction technologies, China can not only higher purity separation, but also control the cost of one-third of European and American enterprises.
More importantly, China has formed a complete industrial chain from mining and smelting to equipment manufacturing, while the United States 'own report estimated as early as 2016 that it may take 15 years to complete the domestic supply chain alone.
In contrast, the embarrassment of the United States and Australia also reflects the deep dilemma of the global rare earth industry chain.
The United States tried to bring together its G7 allies to respond together, but found that there were already many differences within the alliance.
Germany's finance minister clearly warns against countermeasures to disrupt its economyAfter all, German automotive enterprises are highly dependent on rare-earth permanent magnets, and once the supply chain turbulences, losses will be directly transmitted to the end of the industry.
Japan is actively cooperating with Vietnam to develop rare earth mines, but it is stuck in smelting technology.
Although Sweden has discovered rare earth mines and developed mining plans, it has so far failed to start production due to EU environmental regulations.
These fragmented efforts simply cannot form an effective replacement for China's industrial chain.
The reaction of global enterprises can better explain the problem, Tesla on the one hand is busy signing long-term procurement agreements with Australian mining companies, but on the other hand has to accept the reality of the rising cost of metallurgy, because even if you get the ore, it is difficult to make available materials without Chinese processing technology.
A German auto parts company once planned to build its own permanent magnet production line. After investigation, it was found that the equipment procurement cost alone was 50% higher than that of China, and in the end, it had no choice but to give up.
This confirms the consensus in the industry: China’s dominance in the field of rare earth is based on technology, cost and the integrity of the industrial chain, not simply on resource reserves.
Faced with the unjustified accusations of the United States, China's Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Sword has already responded clearly: China's export control is in line with international practice and aims to fulfill its non-proliferation obligations, not to target specific countries.
A spokesman for my country's Ministry of Commerce also emphasized that, The United States, on the one hand, borrowing tariff intimidation and on the other hand, having a dialogue with China is not the right way to deal.
This well-founded position makes the United States '"collective pressure" seem nameless.
After all, in the rare earth industry chain, China has never been a passive resource exporter, but a leader who has mastered the right to speak through decades of technology accumulation.
U.S. Australia’s rare-earth cooperation horror, ultimately pointing to a clear conclusion: The core of international competition has never been the match of resource reserves, but the combination of industrial chain and technological strength.
Neither the anxiety of the US Treasury Secretary nor Australia's initiative to fill in positions will change China's deep advantages in the rare earth field.
When China has completed the entire chain layout, the United States and the West want to catch up in just a few years, which is itself a personal fantasy that violates the logic of industrial development.