Regarding whether the US will eventually erupt into a hot war, make a prediction:
The probability of a hot war is 45%.
There will be no hot war, 55% chance.
At the moment, at least in the next five years, it is unlikely that China and the United States will have a positive gathering.But five years later, when the United States is at the end of the war, who can guarantee that he will not hurry the wall?
Without a doubt, China and the United States will not finally really shoot up this matter, don't watch the online chatter boiling up, right now is "thunderstorms and little rain", in the next few years probably won't fight up, but as long as the United States really came to go to no way, no one dares to pack the ticket he won't do anything!
Don't talk about those advanced strategic analyses first. Let's take what everyone around us knows. Some people shout "China and the United States want a hot war", and I really want to say "a hot war".
Back then, the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union lasted for 50 years, causing chaos throughout the world. It was the Cuban Missile Crisis and the arms race. Both sides wanted to put their nuclear weapons at each other's doorsteps, but in the end, they did not fight with real swords and guns.
Looking at the current Russian-Ukrainian conflict, it has been so long, the Ukrainian side has hit the scratch, the United States is giving weapons and money, the mouth shouts to "support Ukraine", but really let him send troops off, he does not dare to let go, this shows what?
Moreover, given the current situation, it is really unlikely that China and the United States will engage in direct fire in at least the next five years. Why do you say that? First of all, fighting depends on strength. Now China and the United States are both major countries in the world, and their economic, military, and scientific and technological strengths are all there.
Although the United States is strong military, but China is not a soft tomato, our East Wind missiles, aircraft carrier fleet is not vegetarian, really to fight, the United States even if it can take in cheap, also have to pay a painful price, can he be willing?
Secondly, fighting requires sacrifices. Over the years, the United States has been fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan. The people in the country have long complained about how many soldiers have died and how much military expenditure has been spent.
There are now a lot of domestic problems in the United States, such as inflation, debt crisis, and social divisions. If there is another hot war with China, it is estimated that the country will have to break into chaos first. Even if the Biden administration wants to cause trouble again, it will have to weigh the domestic pressure.
In the end, the war has huge benefits, the United States and China have a hot war, what benefit can it get?Now the Chinese-American economy is deeply bound, you have me and you have you, really fight, how many American enterprises must collapse, how much the lives of the people are affected, what does he think?
But don't be too optimistic. No one knows what will happen in five years. Some people say that the results will be known within three years at most. I don't think this is unreasonable.
Now that the hegemony of the United States has begun to decline, economic growth is slowing down, China is constantly catching up with it in the scientific and technological field, and its influence in the international arena is becoming weaker and weaker. Those younger brothers in the past don't listen to him much. When he is really at the end of his life, who can guarantee that he will not jump over the wall?
You know, there is an adventurous spirit in the genes of Angla people. This spirit can sometimes make them come up with some innovative inventions, but sometimes it also makes them never hit the south wall and never look back.
Like when Britain was engaged in colonial expansion, and America was engaged in the western movement, it was all based on this adventurous spirit, now if America's hegemony was really gone, could he be willing?
In particular, in the past two years, the United States also felt that it had the power to break the wrist with China, and when it could fight together, the likelihood of a hot war could be 0%.
Because he knows that he now has codes, and can also pressure China through trade and scientific and technological wars, there is no need to really fight a hot war, but until one day he feels that he has not coded, hegemony really cannot beined, then the risk of a hot war will increase.
But then again, even if the United States wants to take risks, it has to see if it has that strength. Now that China is developing faster and faster, and its comprehensive national strength is constantly improving, if the United States wants to fight a hot war with China, it has to think carefully about whether it can fight and bear the consequences.
In general, America is now the big trend has gone, even if he still wants to struggle, it will not change the fate of decline, maybe afterwards will forever have to reverse.
Of course, this is only my personal opinion, in the end, China and the United States will not explode a hot war in the future, and we have to look at the subsequent development.
The probability of a hot war is 45%.
There will be no hot war, 55% chance.
At the moment, at least in the next five years, it is unlikely that China and the United States will have a positive gathering.But five years later, when the United States is at the end of the war, who can guarantee that he will not hurry the wall?
Without a doubt, China and the United States will not finally really shoot up this matter, don't watch the online chatter boiling up, right now is "thunderstorms and little rain", in the next few years probably won't fight up, but as long as the United States really came to go to no way, no one dares to pack the ticket he won't do anything!
Don't talk about those advanced strategic analyses first. Let's take what everyone around us knows. Some people shout "China and the United States want a hot war", and I really want to say "a hot war".
Back then, the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union lasted for 50 years, causing chaos throughout the world. It was the Cuban Missile Crisis and the arms race. Both sides wanted to put their nuclear weapons at each other's doorsteps, but in the end, they did not fight with real swords and guns.
Looking at the current Russian-Ukrainian conflict, it has been so long, the Ukrainian side has hit the scratch, the United States is giving weapons and money, the mouth shouts to "support Ukraine", but really let him send troops off, he does not dare to let go, this shows what?
Moreover, given the current situation, it is really unlikely that China and the United States will engage in direct fire in at least the next five years. Why do you say that? First of all, fighting depends on strength. Now China and the United States are both major countries in the world, and their economic, military, and scientific and technological strengths are all there.
Although the United States is strong military, but China is not a soft tomato, our East Wind missiles, aircraft carrier fleet is not vegetarian, really to fight, the United States even if it can take in cheap, also have to pay a painful price, can he be willing?
Secondly, fighting requires sacrifices. Over the years, the United States has been fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan. The people in the country have long complained about how many soldiers have died and how much military expenditure has been spent.
There are now a lot of domestic problems in the United States, such as inflation, debt crisis, and social divisions. If there is another hot war with China, it is estimated that the country will have to break into chaos first. Even if the Biden administration wants to cause trouble again, it will have to weigh the domestic pressure.
In the end, the war has huge benefits, the United States and China have a hot war, what benefit can it get?Now the Chinese-American economy is deeply bound, you have me and you have you, really fight, how many American enterprises must collapse, how much the lives of the people are affected, what does he think?
But don't be too optimistic. No one knows what will happen in five years. Some people say that the results will be known within three years at most. I don't think this is unreasonable.
Now that the hegemony of the United States has begun to decline, economic growth is slowing down, China is constantly catching up with it in the scientific and technological field, and its influence in the international arena is becoming weaker and weaker. Those younger brothers in the past don't listen to him much. When he is really at the end of his life, who can guarantee that he will not jump over the wall?
You know, there is an adventurous spirit in the genes of Angla people. This spirit can sometimes make them come up with some innovative inventions, but sometimes it also makes them never hit the south wall and never look back.
Like when Britain was engaged in colonial expansion, and America was engaged in the western movement, it was all based on this adventurous spirit, now if America's hegemony was really gone, could he be willing?
In particular, in the past two years, the United States also felt that it had the power to break the wrist with China, and when it could fight together, the likelihood of a hot war could be 0%.
Because he knows that he now has codes, and can also pressure China through trade and scientific and technological wars, there is no need to really fight a hot war, but until one day he feels that he has not coded, hegemony really cannot beined, then the risk of a hot war will increase.
But then again, even if the United States wants to take risks, it has to see if it has that strength. Now that China is developing faster and faster, and its comprehensive national strength is constantly improving, if the United States wants to fight a hot war with China, it has to think carefully about whether it can fight and bear the consequences.
In general, America is now the big trend has gone, even if he still wants to struggle, it will not change the fate of decline, maybe afterwards will forever have to reverse.
Of course, this is only my personal opinion, in the end, China and the United States will not explode a hot war in the future, and we have to look at the subsequent development.