Putin woke up: Modi changed his face to Trump? India promises to stop buying Russian oil, and the Kremlin is furious: Is the life and death situation for Russian oil here?
Putin may not have expected that the early morning of Moscow in October would start in this way. When he woke up, what he heard was not good news on the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield, but breaking news from the White House: Indian Prime Minister Modi promised Trump that he would stop importing Russian oil. Trump vowed at the press conference: "Modi is my friend, and he assured me that India will no longer buy Russian oil." This news not only stunned Putin, but also made the international community wonder: Why did India suddenly turn? Is Trump's statement another precision blow to Russia? And what kind of complicated international game is hidden behind Modi?
In July 2025, Trump first proposed a "secondary tariff" scheme, threatening to impose additional tariffs on all countries importing Russian oil, mainly against China and India. China showed a tough attitude and continued to maintain a high demand for Russian energy. While India seemed reluctant, trying to find a balance between the US and Russia. State-owned refineries in India even suspended Russian oil orders, thus releasing goodwill to Trump. However, this gesture did not replace Trump's understanding. At the end of August, Trump imposed an additional 25% tariff on India on the basis of "importing Russian oil" and the total tariff reached 50%. Clearly, "importing Russian oil" was just an excuse, and Trump's real goal was to force India to open the market while increasing oil imports from the United States.
Modi's change of attitude may seem sudden, but there are profound reasons behind it. As the world's third largest oil consumer, India's energy demand continues to rise with economic growth. While Russia is an important oil supplier to India, India's energy mix remains highly dependent on the Middle East and the United States. Trump's secondary tariff policy and trade pressure have forced India to reassess its energy strategy. The Modi government is trying to find a balance between the United States and Russia, not only to avoid further escalation of the trade war with the United States, but also to maintain energy cooperation with Russia. Modi's promise seems to be a compromise with Trump, but India's state-owned refineries continue to import Russian oil, showing its vacillation between the United States and Russia.
Russia will obviously not abandon India as an important energy market easily. In September 2025, Russia exported 16.2 million barrels of oil per day to India, accounting for one-third of India’s oil imports. In order to consolidate this partnership, Russia has steadily increased the oil discount from $1 per barrel to $2.5 per barrel. Putin is aware of the importance of the Indian market and has therefore tried to maintain the economic bond between the two countries with preferential policies. However, Modi’s promise has put Putin in a difficult position. In the coming months, Russia may further raise the oil discount and even offer more preferential payment conditions to fight India to continue to buy Russian oil.
Trump's pressure is not only a blow to Putin, but also part of the U.S. energy expansion. The U.S. is trying to seize a greater share of the global energy market, and India's huge market is undoubtedly its important target. By imposing tariffs on India, Trump is trying to force India to increase oil imports from the U.S. while fighting for more encryption for U.S.-India trade negotiations.
The Modi government's calculations are even more complicated. India is trying to play the role of a balancer between the United States and Russia. On the one hand, it needs market and technical support from the United States. On the other hand, Russia's energy discounts are crucial to the Indian economy. Modi's strategy is to extend the buffer period as much as possible and seek the greatest benefits between the United States and Russia. This game around energy, trade and geopolitics is destined to not end easily. In the coming months, the world will continue to pay close attention to the dynamics of the United States, India and Russia. Every step of this international tussle may reshape the world's energy landscape.