At the beginning of the second term, Trump pushed the US-China trade friction to a new peak.On October 10, 2025, he publicly stated that he would impose a 100% tariff on Chinese US goods from November 1, which was another round of action following the first term's 301 clause investigation.This tariff level directly doubled the existing tax rate, covering electronic products, mechanical equipment and other large-scale imports, with the aim of forcing China to make concessions on intellectual property and technology transfer through economic pressure.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent then spoke further at the October 15 conference, saying that 85 senators in Congress had already supported authorizing Trump to impose tariffs of up to 500 percent on China, especially on Chinese companies importing oil from Russia. This figure sounds exaggerated, but it stems from a sanctions expansion bill against the Russian-Ukrainian conflict that the Senate passed with 85 votes in July, and Trump’s team is now taking the opportunity to point it to Chinese energy imports.
This kind of policy doesn't come out of thin air. Since 2018, Trump has launched a tariff war against China on the grounds of trade deficit. The first round of 25% tariffs covered $50 billion of goods, and the second round expanded to $200 billion. Although there was some easing during the Biden era, Trump regained control of the White House after the 2024 election and immediately resumed a tough stance. On February 4th, he signed an executive order to impose a 10% basic tariff on all Chinese imports, and on May 31st, he raised the tax rate of steel and aluminum products to 50%. Now this 100% upgrade directly responds to China's recent announcement on rare earth export controls. Document No. 62 of 2025 strengthens the review of critical minerals and affects the U.S. chip and electric vehicle industry chain.
The Tax Base Foundation estimates that Trump's tariff in 2025 is equivalent to nearly $1,300 more in taxes paid by each American family, mainly reflected in the rising prices of imported goods. Soybean exporters in agricultural states such as Iowa and Illinois have suffered heavy losses. Sales to China have plummeted by 30% in the past few years, but farmers have turned to ethanol production, but it is difficult to make up for the gap. The manufacturing industry has also been affected, with supply chains disrupted by companies such as Apple and General Motors and maintenance costs soaring.
Trump's five cards prepared this time, the combination boxing on the surface, are still the same old extreme pressure in his bones. The first chip is the tariff itself, starting at 100% and possibly going straight to 500%. This is not only for general commodities, but also specifically for the Russian oil import chain. Bescent made it clear that if China continues to buy energy from Russia, the United States will impose punitive tariffs on these oil re-exports, and the proceeds will be used for aid to Ukraine. China is the largest buyer of Russian oil, with imports accounting for 60% of Russian exports in the first three quarters of 2025. However, energy diversification has become a reality, and the supply from the Middle East and Australia has kept up, and the short-term impact is limited. The United States wants to use this to cut off Russia's capital chain, but it may raise global oil prices and bite American refineries.
The second chip focuses on technology export controls. When announcing it on October 10, Trump emphasized that a comprehensive ban on high-end chips, design software and AI tools would be extended to "any critical software." Huawei and ZTE have become old examples of this list of entities that have continued their first term, and are now targeting more Chinese companies such as Hikvision. Data from the Ministry of Commerce shows that the United States controls 90% of the global market share for chip design software, but China's semiconductor self-sufficiency rate has increased from 15% in 2018 to 35% in 2025, and domestic substitution has accelerated. Although the blockade has added to the congestion, it has stimulated China to increase investment in R & D. EU and South Korean companies have taken the opportunity to fill the gap, and US companies such as Intel have lost orders.
The third encoding involved the civil aviation sector, especially Boeing parts exports. Trump threatened to restrict repair services and technology transfer, because Chinese airlines rely on U.S. aircraft, accounting for a fleet of 40%. The Boeing 737 and 787 model repair demanded imports, the ban out could delay flights, but the execution is difficult. FAA certification chain global interoperability, FAA officials have warned that this would affect European Airbus orders, triggering chain reaction. China Commercial Aircraft C919 has delivered hundreds of aircraft, the nationalization process accelerated, the U.S. move is more like killing an enemy a thousand losses than eight hundred.
The fourth chip points to the flow of Chinese students and talents. Recently, the State Council tightened the examination of F-1 visas. Bescent called the number of international students "too much", implying the need to limit the current to prevent the outflow of skills. In 2024, China and the United States will send more than 300,000 students to each other. Chinese students will account for 1/3 of international students in American universities and contribute more than 15 billion US dollars in tuition fees. Although the ban can be blocked in the short term, it hurts the research funding of Stanford and MIT, and professors complain that the cooperation project is interrupted. In the past few years, similar policies have led Chinese students to turn to Australia and Canada, and the application rate of American universities has dropped by 15%.
The fifth bargaining chip is geopolitical binding, that is, Russian oil tariffs are linked to Ukraine's "victory tariffs". Trump proposed that if Europe did not follow up the pressure on China, the United States would go it alone and impose a 500% levy on China's resale of Russian oil. This trick wants to pull allies into the water, but the EU's position is ambiguous. Germany relies on the Chinese automobile market, French nuclear power exports require Chinese orders, and Brussels has stated that it gives priority to strategic independence. After the Russian oil embargo, China turned to discounted purchases, saving 20% of foreign exchange. The United States played this card, but it exposed its own weakness in energy security.
In the face of Trump's tariff fire, the Ministry of Commerce of China on October 14 gave a clear statement: fight, join the end; talk, the door open. These ten words are not an empty slogan, but a confident response based on economic strength. Writing through the bottom line, speech remains space, reflecting China's consistent two-way strategy. Since the opening of the trade war in 2018, this set of words has repeatedly appeared, has been reiterated at the April 2025 routine press conference of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
This effort stems from industrial upgrading. Rare-earth export controls are typical countermeasures, the 62nd announcement of 2025 strengthens censorship, not retaliation, but safeguarding national resource security. China controls the global supply of rare-earth 80%, for magnets and batteries, and U.S. companies like Tesla are highly dependent. China is not actively upgrading, but is in key areas, forcing the U.S. to reflect. Export structure is also more balanced, U.S. dependence drops from 20% in 2018 to 12% in 2025 and Asia and the "Belt and Road" market absorbs surplus. Electric vehicles and photovoltaic exports have risen sharply, although the EU has an anti-dumping investigation, but overall cooperation is deepened.