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Editor | L.Y.
Preliminary
Rump is working to set up a “Ukrainian Victory Fund” that will raise funds by imposing new tariffs on China.
The U.S. president has instructed Treasury Secretary Bessent to present the plan to European counterparts before Zelensky visits Washington on Friday.
According to details disclosed by the White House, Trump has explicitly instructed Treasury Secretary Bessent to fully inform European allies of the plan before President Zelensky’s visit to Washington on October 17. The U.S. has named the tariff “Ukrainian Victory Tariff” or “Russian Petroleum Associated Tariff” to try to pressure Russia indirectly through economic means while providing continued military financial support to Ukraine.
Fundraising: “Unconventional Operations” with a 500% Tariff
The Trump administration plans to impose tariffs of up to 500% on imported Chinese goods, a rate that far exceeds the level of U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods before, covering a number of key categories including electronics, machinery, textiles, etc. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said in a press conference in Washington on October 16: “As long as European allies follow the implementation of similar tariff policies, the U.S. will immediately launch new tariff measures against China.”
This "bundled" strategy exposes the double considerations of the United States: on the one hand, it puts pressure on China through extreme tariffs in an attempt to cut off the energy cooperation ties between China and Russia; On the other hand, pull European allies into the same camp and disperse diplomatic and economic pressures. It is worth noting that the U.S. Senate is ready to grant Trump the power to impose tariffs of up to 500% on China, and the joint authorization of 85 senators has provided domestic political support for this plan.
European Attitude: Differences and Games Coexist
Despite the strong U.S. push, European countries reacted significantly differently. Germany, France and other economies, due to their close trade ties with China, remained alert to the possible economic phobia caused by high tariffs on China. Data show that EU exports to China reached €4800 billion in 2024, imports reached €6400 billion and bilateral trade reached €1.1 trillion. Once a 500% tariff is implemented, European consumers will face rising commodity prices, and enterprise supply chains may break.
However, some Eastern European countries have expressed limited support for the U.S. plan due to geopolitical considerations. At the NATO member state meeting held at its headquarters in Brussels, European countries held a heated debate on two major issues: whether to deliver the Tomahawk long-range missile to Ukraine, and how to fill the US$60 billion of Ukraine's US$120 billion funding gap in 2026. During talks co-chaired by the UK, Ukraine made it clear that funding should come from supporting countries rather than international organizations, further exacerbating divisions within Europe.
$12 billion military life line
Ukraine's dependence on external financial support has reached a critical point. Ukraine Prime Minister Denis Shmihar publicly stated on October 15 that if Ukraine wants to continue to maintain armed resistance in 2026, it will need US$120 billion, half of which will come from supporting countries. Behind this figure lies the reality of continued consumption of the Ukraine battlefield: the Russian military's 300th attack on the Ukraine railway network is in sharp contrast to Uzbekistan's ability to repair traffic within 4 hours, highlighting the cruelty of the endurance competition of the logistics chain.
Even more remarkable is Ukraine’s urgent demand for long-range “Taxic” missiles with a range of 1,600 to 2,500 kilometers, which can allow Russian strike forces to reach Siberia and even Moscow. The Ukrainian Defense Minister said directly at a NATO meeting: “The name of long-range missiles is clear to everyone,” “Despite the general support of Europe for delivery, the final decision is still in the hands of the United States, and Trump said on October 16 only “is considering other options.”
China-Russia response: multidimensional counter-reaction and coordination
Faced with extreme pressure from the United States, China and Russia quickly launched a multi-dimensional counter-measure and coordination mechanism. China has announced the expansion of rare earth control, directly choking the life of the US military industry. Data show that 80% of rare earths in the United States depend on Chinese imports, while the production of advanced weapons such as Tomahawk missiles is highly dependent on rare earth materials. China's move forced Trump to announce on October 17th that he would impose an additional 100% tariff on Chinese imports from November 1st in response, but the 500% tariff scheme was still retained as a "bargaining chip".
Trump said on October 16 that India's Prime Minister Modi had pledged to stop buying fossil fuels from Russia, but that Russia quickly strengthened energy cooperation with countries such as Iran and Syria in an attempt to build alternative supply chains. At the same time, Russia's presence on the left bank of the Dniester River and warnings to Moldova exposed the complexity of its two-line strategy.
conclusion
If this plan is put into practice, it will profoundly change the global political and economic structure. From the economic perspective, the 500% tariff may trigger the restructuring of the global supply chain. China's established counter-measures toolbox includes tariff counter-measures against American agricultural products and aircraft, as well as litigation under the WTO framework. From a political perspective, the United States is trying to reconstruct the international order through the four-dimensional strategy of "support for Ukraine + tariffs on China + pressure on Russia + coordination with India". However, Europe's hesitation and China and Russia's countermeasures may make it fall into a "alone" dilemma.
On a military level, Ukraine's acquisition of "Taxic" missiles will change the balance of the battlefield, but Russia has demonstrated response capabilities: the accurate strike of the Crimean Feudal oil tank on October 13, demonstrating the resilience of its logistics chain.
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