¡÷ On October 14, Randrianirina (center), the officer who led the mutiny in the military camp, attended a meeting between military representatives and members of parliament.

The grass is tight, because the soldiers of Madagascar are agitated.

10month14On the 20th, Madagascar soldiers entered the presidential palace directly and claimed to take over state power, suspend the current constitution, dissolve almost all institutions such as the Senate and the Supreme Court, leaving only the National Assembly to maintain the facade.

From popular protests to the military taking power, but10For several days, the political order in Madagascar has just completed a rapid ¡°washing of cards.¡±

15On the 20th, the African Union suspended Madagascar'sMember Statesof qualification.

between half a month.

No one expected that the last straw crushing Madagascar was the power outage.

9In late March, residents of the capital Antananarivo took the lead in taking to the streets to protest against "daily power outages exceeding12"Madagascar is facing a serious energy crisis, the country continues to power and water shutdowns, hospitals stopped non-emergency care due to power outages, small merchants refrigerated goods"AlsoPiled up into a mountain of trash.

The protests spread rapidly. Short3Many cities were caught up in chaos, shops were robbed, and the governmentbigThe building burned, and the social order was completely out of control.

Vehicles and shops damaged in the commercial district of Madagascar.

President Rajoelina also triedThe fire rescue:9month29Day,announceddissolvedcurrentGovernment, recognition¡°Government cannot solve people¡¯s livelihoods problems.¡±10month6On the 20th, former Health Minister Zafisambo was urgently called to serve as the new prime minister and demanded15Get water and electricity within days.

But this set."Change" operation, failed to stop the situation from worsening. In the protest of the shortage of hydroelectricity, the military camp shooting sounded suddenly again.

10month11On the day of the demonstration, soldiers carrying guns joined the demonstration.Two days later, the troops announced that they would take over the command of the entire army, and the presidential palace could only send a letter condemning the "illegal seizure of power", but it was impossible.

In just half a month, Madagascar slipped from street riots to military power, and the political situation of this African island countrydramatic changefar beyond external imagination.

The vicious cycle.

The situation in Madagascar, first and foremost, has been overwhelmed.¡°Chronic illness¡±¡ª¡ªThe shadow of colonial history is never gone.

Since1896Since then, France has been colonial over Madagascar for decades and has been forcibly implanted into political and cultural systems.The current social turmoil is undoubtedly linked to the power vacuum and political chaos left by colonial rule.

University College London Madagascar Expert LukeDr. Freeman noted that"Colonial rule not only took away Madagascar's resources, but also destroyed the foundation of its independent development."In the chaotic political landscape of post-independence Madagascar, it has always been difficult to establish a stable and effective governance system, and subsequent development has become difficult and has fallen into a vicious cycle of multiple difficulties.

First, resources are abundant but difficult to develop. Madagascar contains scarce minerals such as nickel and cobalt,45%Homeland is cultivable farmland. But that country per capitaGDPonly500Around the US dollar, the global countdown; near70%The population earns less than a day2.15Dollar.

The data shows,2019year to2023Income from the country¡¯s minerals62%Separated by multinational companies and local elites, only3%beIntroduction to public services.History Trauma and Reality.OfUnder the double influence, even after Madagascar's independence, it is difficult to turn resources into a driving force for development.

Second, political stability cannot last long. independent65Over the past few years, Madagascar has experienced multiple coups and government disbandments. The African Union's observation report put it bluntly: "Every government comes to power, it calls for reform, and in the end it is all slogans. Public services are paralyzed, and no one listens to the people's demands."

The political system left behind during the colonial period is difficult to match the national conditions, and the forces of all sides often struggle for power, making the government like a "temporary worker", seriously consuming the country's governance capabilities.

Third, the economic structure is unbalanced.Colonial rule ignores long-term planning on local education and industry, making the economic structure of Madagascar unified after independence, making it difficult to create enough jobs.¡£Data from the Madagascar Statistics Bureau show that the country15age isto35Unemployment among young people is high72%This undoubtedly boosts society.OfDisappointment.

Chain reactions

Madagascar's pillar industry, tourism, bears the brunt. This Indian Ocean island country attracts hundreds of thousands of people every year with its unique lemurs and tropical rainforests.30Thousands of tourists, tourism accounts forGDPOf12%According to the Ministry of Tourism,nowadaysCancellation rate for international tourists soaredrose to68%Hotel Accommodation Rates DecreasedLess than15%¡£¡°I have resigned.12Employees,ifThere are no more tourists, so we can only close the door¡£"The words of an eco-hotel owner reveal the desperate situation of the whole industry.

As a member of the Common Market of Southeast Africa, Madagascar has frequent trade with South Africa and Tanzania.10At the beginning of the month, border customs duties between the two countries increased.42%¡£"Trucks are stuck in Madagascar and can't be transported at all", and the chain of regional economy is broken.

As a result, the global grass supply will be tightened.Madagascar's vanilla production accounts for % of global vanilla production80%£¬10Month is the critical time for harvest, but it is near20%Ofplantation due to interruption of traffic,lead toNo one harvested the grass in the ground, and some ports were closed, and goods could not be sent out."If the situation drags on, the global vanilla price maywillRise to30%¡£"Fromice creamWhen it comes to perfumes, many industries have to followfor thisto pay.

Future Questions

In the face of the unrest in Madagascar, the international community has reacted intensely.

10month12The chairman of the African Union Commission, Yousafzai, called on all parties to "cold consultation and respect for human rights" and expressed the willingness of the African Union to help restore stability.10month13On July, the Peace and Security Council of the African Union held an emergency meeting and issued an announcement£¬Expresses the urgent appointment of a special envoy for Madagascar and the establishment of a follow-up coordination mechanism¡£meanwhile£¬It is recommended that a high-level delegation be dispatched to Madagascar immediately andeachStakeholder engagement with a view to solving the challenges facing the country.

East African Community10month5The callAt an emergency meeting, Kenyan President Ruto pointed out:"Neglecting people's livelihood will lead to trouble sooner or later. African countries must take public services and poverty reduction seriously¡£¡±

Foreign aid has been silently tightened.The United Nations Development Programme said it suspended part of non-emergency aid,"Wait until the situation stabilizes"; EUAlsoDelayed the original plan.11The agricultural cooperation project launched in October also asked Madagascar to "give a timetable for governance reform".

After Madagascar's military took power, it promised"New elections in two years." It is obviously difficult to predict what changes the military can bring to the country. But right now Madagascar's most urgent needs are to restore water and electricity and reopen shops.

In the long run, solving structural problems such as resource distribution and state governance is the basis for social stability and economic development.