From wanted criminal to president, Julani walked into the Kremlin: demanding Assad to be handed over, and Putin's expression said it all.
On October 15, 2025, the Kremlin Palace welcomed a special visitor, the Syrian “transitional government” President Ahmed al-Sharaa, the well-known “Julani”, the opposition leader who had been repeatedly declared “dead” by the Russian Defense Ministry, and now walks into the Kremlin as the head of state, becoming Putin’s “sitter”. However, the meeting was filled with a embarrassing and complicated atmosphere. Putin’s face was always hanging with a laughing expression, his eyes were low and hardly faced with Julani. This conversation not only reflected the profound shift in Russia’s strategy in the Middle East, but also revealed the cruel logic of geopolitics.
Eight years ago, when the Syrian Civil War was in full swing, Russia fully supported the Assad regime against the armed opposition in an attempt to consolidate its strategic position in the Middle East. The Russian military not only provided advanced weapons, but also directly participated in the fighting. However, in 2025, Julian’s armed forces seized Damascus in just 12 days, ending 53 years of Assad’s rule. The crash of the Assad regime caused Russia to be embarrassed. Putin had hoped to rebuild Soviet influence by supporting Assad, but now this vision has been broken down. Julian’s rise not only symbolizes a radical overthrow in the Syrian power pattern, but also leads Russia’s Middle East strategy to an unprecedented defeat.
The transformation of Julian’s identity is a geopolitical miracle. He was once listed as a “terrorist” by Russia and now talks with Putin as the head of state. Julian’s diplomatic wrist is striking. He frequently visits Europe and the United States, and his relations with the West are significantly eased, whileining a subtle balance between Russia, the country and the three major powers. This visit to Russia, he tried to code the Russian military base in Syria in exchange for transactions with Assad, thus further consolidating his regime’s legitimacy.
Julani's trump cards are clear: Tartus Naval Base and Hmeimim Air Base. These two bases are not only Russia's strategic fulcrum in the Middle East, but also a symbol of its status as a "global power". However, with the reversal of Syria's power structure, the sovereignty of Al Qaeda has changed hands. Julani has ordered Russian military vehicles to report in advance when entering and leaving the base. This is tantamount to declaring: I set the rules, and cooperation needs to be renegotiated. For Putin, the loss of these bases will mean the complete collapse of Russia's influence in the Middle East.
Putin’s choice is extremely difficult. To surrender Assad means publicly betraying his former allies and further destroying the international credibility of Russia’s “trusted partner.”When the conflict has severely weakened Russia’s global influence, another loss of credit in the Middle East will likely accelerate the strategic marginalization.But if he refuses to surrender, Julanis may expel the Russian army on the basis of “sovereignty” and completely cut off Russia’s last ticket in the Middle East.In this game, so-called “allies” are only a temporary label of interests, and “justice” is only a code package.
This meeting is a symbolic moment for Russia's Middle East strategy to change from "leader" to "survivor". Putin once fantasized about rebuilding Soviet influence by supporting Assad's regime, but now he has to bow to his former enemies just to keep two bases. Julani's counterattack is a miracle of personal destiny and a ruthless portrayal of geopolitics. In the future, whether Russia can keep its final strategic fulcrum still depends on how Putin finds a balance in this game.