Before Ukrainian President Zelensky met Trump, the Russian phone call arrived first. Putin swung three axes, and Trump even stepped on the brakes urgently. So, what did Putin say on the phone? What is Trump's attitude towards aiding Ukraine?
On October 16 local time, Putin actively called Trump, the two spoke for two and a half hours, and decided to say goodbye in Hungary. The scene occurred just the night before Zelensky arrived in the United States and was preparing to ask for the "Tax" missile support. The reason is not complicated, Putin chose to call Trump on the day before Zelensky visited the United States, which is a typical "rhythmic" operation.
In the past few months, the focus of U.S. -Ukraine relations has been on long-range weapons. Ukraine has always hoped to obtain a Tomahawk missile that can reach Russia. This missile has a range of more than 2,000 kilometers and can cover central Russia and even the Ural Mountains. Zelensky has high hopes for this trip to the White House, believing that as long as Trump agrees, Ukraine can turn the situation around on the battlefield. But Putin saw it more clearly. He did not wait for the other party to express his position and attacked first, disrupting Uzbekistan's plan with a phone call.
The details released by the Russian side show that Putin took the initiative to make the phone call and chatted for two and a half hours. Trump immediately issued a message afterwards, calling the call "very fruitful" and revealing that the two will meet in Budapest. Almost at the same time, Hungarian Prime Minister Orban announced that Hungary was ready to host the Russia-US summit. The rhythm is completely controlled by Putin, Zelensky is still preparing for a meeting, and Russia and the United States have already set the venue for a new round of negotiations.
In this phone call, Putin swung three axes. One is "praise". He knows Trump's character best. Trump is a man who eats soft but not hard. To him, any affirmation from a "big man" is more useful than a pile of documents. Putin knows this well, and on the phone, he did not forget to praise Trump for "achieving peace, which is a dream for centuries" on the Middle East issue. This sentence may not mean anything to others, but for Trump, it directly pokes his heart. He immediately posted content on social media, trumpeting Putin's praise. This satisfaction of being "recognized" makes Trump relax during negotiations, and naturally lowers his vigilance. Putin's first step is to open up the situation with praise and "soften" the negotiation atmosphere.
The second axe is to "draw a line". During the call, Putin clearly told Trump that if the United States provides Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, it will not only fail to change the war situation, but will damage the peace process and undermine Russia-US relations. Russia has repeatedly emphasized that the Russian army has fully grasped the initiative on the battlefield, and no long-range missile can change this fact. This statement is moderate on the surface, but it is actually a deterrent. It reminds Trump that if he insists on supplying weapons, US-Russia relations may move towards a more dangerous situation. Considering Trump's business thinking, this undoubtedly implies that cooperation is more cost-effective than confrontation. Trump later mentioned in his statement that once the Russia-Ukraine conflict is over, it will open up huge space for US-Russia economic cooperation. This is actually the effect Putin wants-let Trump pull his attention back from the battlefield to business.
Putin proposed a meeting in Budapest, Trump agreed. For Putin, this was an opportunity to show diplomatic initiative; for Trump, it was a new “show”. He liked to be the focus, like the feeling of “controlling the situation.” One meeting of the Russian-American heads was enough to put him on the global headline. Putin gave him this stage, giving him a reason to temporarily put off the “war-ax” issue, with “negotiations” instead of “armed aid”. From Putin’s perspective, this meeting can not only continue the channel of dialogue, but also keep Russian-American relations controllable.
Zelensky’s plan was basically disrupted. Originally he hoped that Trump would explicitly support Ukraine’s long-range missile demands at the White House meeting, but now he found the topic stolen by the US-Russian call. Trump openly said that he would “think Putin’s concerns” at the meeting, which is equivalent to pouring cold water into Ukraine in advance. More subtly, Budapest itself is extremely unfriendly to Ukraine, which also means that if US-Russia is really there to meet, Ukraine has little space to participate.
As for Trump, he has always liked to experiment on the “rand”, but he is more clear where his bottom line is. Once the Russian-US relationship is completely broken, the United States will pay a huge price, especially in the fields of energy and European security. In addition to his own preparation for the APEC summit, it is impossible for any risk to affect his political image. Therefore, when Putin throws out the “olive branch” of the meeting in Budapest, Trump naturally follows, urgently kicking the brake on the matter of the “war-Tax” missile.
Overall, the brilliance of Putin's operation this time lies in his "first move". He did not wait for the United States and Ukraine to finish talking before responding, but took the initiative to set issues before the other party took action. The content of the phone call is not complicated, but the signal it releases is very strong: there is still room for communication between Russia and the United States, and war is not the only option. Trump's choice to suspend the supply of arms in the face of interests is not weakness, but a reflection of real politics. For Zelensky, this means that Ukraine's position in the Western support chain is once again passive.
It can be predicted that in the future, the US and Russia will carry out more diplomatic moves around the Budapest meeting. Trump needs this meeting to add points for himself, and Putin hopes to push the situation in a favorable direction for Russia through talks. and Zelensky, it seems, can only wait for the outcome of this game of great power.