On October 9, our Ministry of Commerce issued the announcement of the new regulation for the control of rare earth exports.
This can be called a “precision hole”. first, if the content of rare earth in China exceeds 0.1%, should exports be approved. second, foreign products produced using rare earth technology in China must also be approved. In particular, the provisions also add a sentence, sold to overseas military users and those entities that are included in our control list, in principle, not.
What is this concept? This almost grasps the "lifeline" of some high-tech and cutting-edge industries in the United States. You know, from F-35 fighter jets to various precision-guided missiles to cutting-edge electronic equipment, which one can live without high-performance rare earth permanent magnet materials? This is not just a countermeasure, In key areas, redefine the rules in a language that the other party can understand.
Sure enough, Trump on the other side of the ocean immediately jumped up and announced that from November 1st, he would impose a 100% tariff on our goods. This posture seemed to be about to turn the table over.
However, the most honest ones are often the capital markets. As soon as Trump's harsh words were released, Wall Street traders voted with their feet. On October 11, U.S. stocks suffered The Black Friday.The Nasdaq index fell 3.56 percent, the S&P 500 fell 2.71 percent, and Dow Jones fell 1.9 percent, and AMD fell 8 percent, and Tesla fell more than 5 percent, and even the Nasdaq China Financial Index fell 6.1 percent, and the S&P, Dow Jones and Alibaba fell more than 8 percent.
Bloomberg reports that this is the biggest single-day drop in U.S. stocks since April this year. The panic sentiment in the market, almost visible to the naked eye, is heating up sharply. This shows what? indicates that capital doesn't believe tears, and not even a mouthgun. They clearly know that once China's rare-earth cards hit out, the impact on the U.S. supply chain will be real, and Trump's tariff bar will not only not solve the problem, but will exacerbe the already fragile economy.
Just at the time of the market's mourning, a deeper problem emerged, and it was this problem that forced Trump to make the choice of "abandoning the car guard".
The government shutdown, the most direct effect is that the salary of more than a million U.S. soldiers is not out. Military heart, has always been the cornerstone of stability of any country. Trump understands more than anyone that trade wars can be lost, the stock market can fall, but the army can absolutely not be messed up.
So we saw such a scene. Trump urgently signed a presidential order requiring the Secretary of Defense to ensure that the U.S. military receives salaries on time on October 15 in any case. Where does the money come from? Defense Minister Hagesese had no choice but to Misappropriate $8 billion in Pentagon military research and development funds.
Friends, note that the $8 billion is not a waste of money.This money, originally used for military new technology testing and evaluation, is a “seed fund” to ensure the U.S. military’s technological leadership in the next few decades.
this is the typical "Abandon the car and protect the handsome"The “car” he gave up was America’s long-standing military-technological advantage and development progress; the “brainer” he wanted to secure was the current military stability and his own political base.
What's even more interesting is that the Americans themselves understood it. Palmer Lucki, founder of Anduril Industries, an American artificial intelligence military enterprise, and a big shot in the circle, pointedly pointed out: "China has been preparing for this game between China and the United States for 50 years. The United States must rebuild its rare earth supply chain and industrial system immediately."
"50 years of preparation" is too heavy, which shows that every step we see today is not the result of heart-breathing, but the result of generations of thoughtful, long-term layout.
Let’s see how robust this 50 year layout is. According to data from China Rare Earth Industry Association last year, we control 92% of the world’s rare earth oxide refining capacity, 87% of the world’s metal alloy smelting capacity, and 85% of the high-performance magnet manufacturing capacity. What is this concept? This is an absolute, overwhelming dominance. Even the only rare earth processing plant in the United States – the Mantenpass minefield in California, excavated the minerals because of their own mature separation technology, and finally had to be shipped all to China to process.
Now, does the United States want to rebuild its supply chain? I don't know if it's too late, but the difficulty is definitely hellish.
Let's settle the bill. An industry report shows that the investment in building a 10,000-ton rare earth separation plant alone exceeds $500 million. This is not the most troublesome thing. Under the environmental standards of the United States, the cost of disposing of radioactive waste residue brought by rare earth mines is about six times that of China. What is more core is technical barriers. China now holds 90% of the world's rare earth cascade extraction technology patents, this is the real "unique stunt". It's not that American companies haven't tried to do it themselves, but what's the result? The performance of the trial-produced magnet can only reach 65% of the military standard, which is simply unusable.
The U.S. Department of Energy itself has assessed that in order to establish a complete rare earth supply chain that does not rely on China, It will require investments of at least $12 billion and up to a decade.Ten years, in today’s rapidly changing world, are enough to make a huge change.When he builds it ten years later, our technology may have iterated for generations.
So you see, Trump's tariff policy not only failed to turn the situation around, but instead was like a reckless boxer, punching a steel plate, shaking his arms numb, and completely exposing the fragility of his supply chain to the world.
Looking back at us, these decades of slumbering, deep cultivation in the key resource fields, is showing its far-reaching strategic value. When the Pentagon's "oil water" is used to deploy troops, when once inexorable U.S. military soldiers also start to rely on relief days, these scenes, are silently speaking of the tension of an empire's strategic resources.
When the chess game went down to the middle of the game, Trump abandoned the "car" of developing the future and maintained the stable "handsome" in front of him. But the question is, can this really be preserved? The strength of a country does not depend on temporary stability, but on its continuous innovation capabilities and strong industrial foundation. When the engine in the future is stalled early, how long will this "handsome" be stable?
This game of great powers has evolved from a simple trade friction to a comprehensive contest of industrial chain, supply chain and future technological dominance. We don't cause trouble, but we are never afraid of trouble. When others put a knife on our neck, we must have the ability and wisdom to show our sword.
Rare earth is the sharp sword that we have hidden for decades.
Of course, the chess game is still going on, and there are still many variables in the future. After Trump "abandons the car to protect the coach", what will he do next? Will you choose to moderate, or will you bet more crazily? This requires us to maintain a high degree of vigilance and strategic determination. But in any case, one thing is certain: in the face of an opponent who has been preparing for this for half a century, any short-sightedness and impulsiveness will pay a heavy price.