China and the Philippines have a territorial sea dispute and constant frictions. The Philippines is backed by the United States. In April 2024, the United States and the Philippines held a "shoulder-to-shoulder" military exercise. The United States deployed the Tifeng medium-range missile system to Luzon Island. It originally said to withdraw in September, but it did not leave.
In April 2025, the NMESIS anti-ship missile system was deployed, which is only 96 kilometers away from Taiwan Island and can block the Bashi Channel.
These missiles have a long range and directly threaten the passage of the China navy. By agreeing to keep these equipment, the Philippines serves as a springboard for the United States.
The United States 'deployment in the surrounding areas does not exceed this. South Korea has the THAAD system. The first batch will be installed in 2017 and the second batch will be increased in 2022 to intercept missiles.
In 2024, the United States sold two sets of land-based Aegis shields to Japan, which will be used in Akita and Yamaguchi prefectures in 2025, with a range of 2,500 kilometers. F-35 fighter jets are also spread everywhere. Japan will need 48 F-35As by 2026, Iwakuni base will add F-35Cs, and South Korea's Gunsan base will add 20.
Nuclear submarines have docked more frequently in Busan and Yokosuka. These things add together to form an encirclement of China, obviously preparing for war.
In addition to these, the economic and technological games also pushed things forward.Sino-U.S. trade war from 2018 to now, tariffs, technology embargo layers out.China is tight on the chip, 5G, the United States is the neck.
If China continues to develop and the United States feels that the threat is great, military options will be put on the table. Historically, the United States, Britain, and the United States and the Soviet Union did not directly fight hot wars, but now the situation is different and the competition has become fierce.
Bradley Greek, an expert at the Atlantic Council of the United States, made it clear in an article published on April 10, 2025 that fighting against China is either a quick victory or a major defeat.
He is a non-resident senior researcher of the Indo-Pacific Security Initiative, and he says that the United States does not think of fighting a lasting war, so the cost is too high, infrastructure, networks, space assets are all affected. Why? Because the battlefield is at the doorstep of China, the United States has to pull supplies from the home, long lines, easy to break.
What Glick means is that the United States has to throw all its conventional weapons in from the beginning, and strive for a short-term decisive victory. Referring to history, from 1904 to 1905 in the Russo-Japanese War, Japan used land and sea maneuvers to end the battle in 19 months. The United States has to build a front inventory and multi-domain troops, which will be in place within six months. If it fails to win quickly, the United States will have to admit its defeat, because if it lasts, the economy will collapse and its allies will not be able to stand it.
The U.S. Navy is strong and has many aircraft carrier formations, but China's missile saturation attacks are severe. Anti-ship missiles such as the Dongfeng series have long range and high precision. In the simulated war, the U.S. aircraft carrier group is close to the Taiwan Strait and is easy to be attacked.
Land that the high-intensity war lasted long, the United States lost a lot, the Chinese economy was hurt, but China was resilient.The Brookings Institute article noted that some simulated the United States to keep, but died thousands of wounded; some China won.
The United States ranks first in the world in military spending, exceeding 800 billion US dollars in 2024, and China's about 600 billion US dollars. However, China has a large number of troops, with 2.2 million active duty and 1.4 million in the United States. In terms of navy, the number of Chinese ships exceeds that of the United States, with 370 ships in 2025 and 290 ships in the United States. However, there are 11 American aircraft carriers and 3 Chinese aircraft carriers, and the United States leads in quality. For the Air Force, the United States has many F-22 and F-35 stealth aircraft, while China has a small number of J-20s, but it has made rapid progress.
Geographical factors are key. China's domestic strike, missiles launched from the land, covered the first island chain. The United States has to cross the Pacific, supply ships are easy to sink by submarines or missiles. Nuclear weapons no one wants to use, but in conventional warfare, China's domestic industry can quickly manufacture ammunition, the US production line is slow, inventory is not enough.
In 2023, the United States helped Taiwan Province and won, but lost 20 ships, hundreds of aircraft. Another simulation, China blocked Taiwan Province and quickly took it. The National Interest magazine said that the United States must rely on allies, Japan, Australia, the Philippines to help disperse Chinese power. If China were to win quickly, the United States would not react and would lose.
But the U.S. has an advantage, more intelligence satellites, strong cyber warfare, can interfere with Chinese command. In the space field, the U.S. SpaceX star chain can help communicate, China's anti-satellite weapons can do, but it has not fought. Economically, the global trade war, China's exports are big, the U.S. imports are big, all hurt. oil from the Middle East, China relies on the Strait of Malacca, the U.S. Navy can block.
China can also win fast, especially in the Taiwan Sea, quickly unify, reduce losses. lasting war no one wants, economy, finance, people's livelihoods all crack. history textbook, the US-South Cold War for more than forty years, did not play the hot war, because the consequences are serious.
Americans feel like their own tech cow, but ignore logistics.
Experts warn, prepare for a quick victory, but it's best not to go to war.
reference
John Mearsheimer, Jeffrey Sachs: Can China and the United States avoid war? Observernet