The contents of this article are written with authoritative materials and personal opinions. The source of the literature has been marked at the end of the article, so please know.
On October 16, the Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence Agency publicly stated: Russia could lose effective control of 40% of its territory in the future。
And in the report, China and North Korea were directly named, believing that these two countries are strengthening their deployment in Siberia, Russia's Far East.
The implication is obvious, that is Putin is so busy fighting that he forgets his backyard is already on fire。
How important is Siberia?
The region crosses several time zones in Russia. More than 13 million square kilometers, it is said to be "the earth's resource warehouse". There are 5% of the world's oil, 157 billion tons of coal, 80% of Russia's natural gas, and various mines and forests.
Now this place is a little upsetting for Russia.
Recently, Ukrainian drones bombed a Siberian oil refinery in Okymin, showing that Ukraine can also hit places where Russia once felt safe.
But here's the thing. Auming refinery is a key energy hub in Siberia.One-third of its diesel exports are used to fuel Russia's military operations.
The development of Siberia has always been a "century problem" for Russia.During the Soviet era, the state made every effort to invest 5% of GDP annually in the development of this land, but there was no harvest.
The foundation of the Tyuming Oilfield sank by 1.5 meters as soon as it was completed. The Bei-A Railway took 20 years, but in the end it suffered a large loss.
In 2016, Putin launches "Far East One Hectare" billThey tried to attract the population by donating land for free, but the weather was too cold and the infrastructure was scarce, so the policy didn’t work.
According to the data for 2024, the population of the Siberian region accounts for only 4% of the total population of Russia and is continuously declining every year.
Unlike Russia's difficulties in developing Siberia, China's method is smarter.
The "Power of Siberia" natural gas pipeline opened in 2019 is estimated to be able to deliver 38 billion cubic meters of natural gas every year by 2025, enough for Shanghai to use for three years.
In 2015, Zhejiang Zhejiang Resources Company signed a contract with the sub-Baharan border district, renting one hundred and seven thousand and fifty thousand acres of wilderness, for a lease period of 49 years, the rent is cheap.
This cooperation has allowed China companies to build modern agricultural bases in Siberia and brought revenue to Russia.
This July, The value of goods shipped to Russia by China-Europe freight trains is 19.8 billion。
From Siberian pine wooden furniture, to oil crushed by Russian oil seeds, to second-hand cars sold in China to Russia, resources and markets between China and Russia slowly shifted.
China's Ambassador to Russia Zhang Hanhui made it clear that "Taking over Siberia" is purely a replica of the China threat theoryHe pointed out that China-Russia had drawn the border line in 2008 and had a total length of 4,300 kilometers, with no territorial disputes.
Unlike China’s economic cooperation, North Korea is mainly a labor force import.
In the past year, about 15,000 North Korean workers have informally arrived in Far East Siberia, Currently, the number of North Koreans working in the country has reached 50,000.
More importantly, Russian companies have signed a new agreement with Pyongyang, which plans to introduce another 15,3 thousand North Korean workers.
In response, Ukraine's intelligence service stated that Moscow was using labor in exchange for political support, while North Korea was earning foreign exchange by exporting labor. Both sides get what they need.
In June 2024, Putin also signed the Treaty of Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with Kim Jong-un in Pyongyang, covering a number of areas including politics, security and trade.
The agreement is also seen as the highest level of cooperation between the two countries since the Cold War.
This also means that the cooperative relationship between North Korea and Russia will be closer. In other words, North Korea is becoming an "external labor force army" in Russia's Far East.
However, because of the increasing number of foreigners in Siberia, Russia is also starting to change its immigration policy。
On December 30, 2024, Putin signed an order saying that foreigners currently staying illegally in Russia should either leave by themselves before April 30, 2025, or find a way to make their identities legal.
The command says, to legalize identity., you have to provide personal information, a physical examination, prove that you understand Russian and Russian historical laws, pay off the money you owe, and you have never been rejected or cancelled before.
On February 5th, Russia's new immigration law came into effect, establishing a system for repatriating foreigners, and using a list to control those foreigners without legal formalities.
Foreign citizens listed will face a series of restrictions,This includes prohibiting registration as a legal person or individual business owner, purchasing and registering real estate, bank account opening and transfer funds, etc.
At present, Russia faces three major difficulties, namely economic dependence, labor dependence, and capital dependence.
Ukrainian intelligence services pointed out that, China intervened economically, North Korea intervened with labor, and the two nuclear-armed countries are increasingly present in the Far East.
On the surface, Russia is a partner, but in fact, in long-term cooperation, Russia is losing initiative in the region., and this situation will become increasingly obvious in the next few years.
But to be honest, Ukraine is probably scaring Putin.attempt to separate the relations between China and Russia.
But looking at it from another angle, such warnings are not empty talk.
Russia’s development in the Far East is stagnating, local government finances are facing an emergency, resources are running out, and the continued influx of external capital and labor force are naked realities.
It must be admitted, The stronger a nation is on the battlefield, the more vulnerable the back is.。
This is something Russia should be vigilant about now.
reference
1. "Russia claims to repel Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian energy facilities" 2025-10-16 15:10 | Source: CCTV News
2. "KCNA: Putin says Russia and North Korea will respond more uniformly to threats and challenges" 2024-12-27 13:14| Source: The Paper News
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