On October 10, in the White House Rose Garden, Trump faced reporters 'camera and fired a shocking bomb: The United States may implement export controls on Boeing aircraft parts in response to China's rare earth control measures.
When these words were made, the global aviation industry was in an uproar. A civil aviation industry observer bluntly said: "Trump has no cards to play, so he plays whatever he grasps as a card."
Trump’s crash, Boeing is in crisis
Trump's decision was not an isolated incident. Before throwing out the "Boeing parts embargo" theory, he announced in early October that he would impose an additional 100% tariff on all China goods starting from November 1, and also planned to freeze all exports of "key U.S. software" to China.
Among these three axes, the most surprising one is the threat of embargo against Boeing. Boeing insiders voiced opposition almost immediately. Boeing CEO Ortberg called U.S. Trade Representative Greer overnight, with an anxious tone: "Does the president want China to be unable to buy Boeing, or does he want me to close the door?"
The market reacted quickly and fiercely. On the day of Trump's statement, Boeing's share price plummeted by 11%, and its market value evaporated by about $28 billion. Its supplier Spirit AeroSystems fell 15%, and GE Aviation also fell 9%. Fitch, a rating agency, listed Boeing on the "negative watch" list on the same day.
The American Aviation Union issued a statement warning: "For every less aircraft sold, 7500 fewer American jobs are created." An American aviation mechanic left a message on Trump's social account: "Mr. President, my pension is heavily in Boeing. Please treat it as an American company, not a bargaining chip.
Boeing is not a top-notch company, but is deeply plunged into multiple crises. Between 2018 and 2019, two fatal air crashes in the 737 MAX series killed 346 people, causing the model’s global flight shutdown for two years.
In January this year, an Alaska Airlines Boeing 737 MAX 9 passenger plane crashed in the mid-flight cabin door, and the investigation found that the four screws fixed at the aircraft's factory were not all installed.
In 2018, Boeing’s market share in the world’s large passenger aircraft market reached 53%, and by 2024 it had dropped to 29%. Airbus jumped from its competitors to 64% in the same period. Boeing lost six consecutive years, with a net loss of $7.8 billion in 2024 and a total liability of $65 billion.
As of 2025, there are more than 1,500 Boeing aircraft in China's civil aviation system, accounting for about 45% of China's civil aviation fleet. Of the 5,000 orders globally accumulated by Boeing, China's orders account for about 500 aircraft. If the embargo is implemented, these orders are likely to be cancelled and Boeing will lose $500 to $70 billion in future revenue.
Opportunities for Airbus
Airbus is already fully prepared to compete for Boeing's market share. Airbus has a production base in Tianjin and can produce about four single-aisle A320 passenger aircraft per month. Airbus currently holds orders for 185 aircraft from customers in China, and this number is expected to grow rapidly.
Airbus’ advantages in the Chinese market are not only in localized production, but also in the market recognition of its products.The Airbus A320 family has delivered more than 12,260 aircraft for the first time, surpassing the Boeing 737 as the world’s best-selling jet aircraft.
In 2024, Airbus delivered 447 aircraft to China, far exceeding Boeing's 291 aircraft. Airbus's second final assembly line in Tianjin is also scheduled to be opened in 2025, which will further improve its delivery capabilities in the Chinese market.
Following Trump’s threat release, Airbus quietly adjusted its production plans to prepare for new orders that could be shifted from Boeing. For Airbus, Trump’s decision was equivalent to removing its biggest competitor and helping it gain a monopoly on the Chinese market.
China is not unprepared for a possible embargo. China airlines generally reserve spare parts and components inventories for 3-6 months to cope with short-term shocks. More importantly, China does not put eggs in one basket.
Domestic C919 large aircraft have begun to be delivered, with domestic orders exceeding 300 aircraft. China Eastern Airlines has operated a number of C919 aircraft for main routes such as Shanghai to Chengdu, and the operation performance is stable. The unit price of the C919 is US $99 million, which is more than 15% lower than the Boeing 737 MAX of the same class, and the operating cost is also about 8% lower.
China Commercial Aviation plans to increase the production capacity of the C919 to 75 aircraft by 2025, 100 aircraft by 2026 and 200 aircraft by 2029.In terms of engines, China's independently developed CJ-1000A engine has completed extreme testing and plans to complete airworthiness certification by 2027.
The global order volume of COMAC C919 has exceeded 1,000. As of the end of December 2024, a total of 16 C919 aircraft have been delivered to customers, of which 12 will be delivered in 2024. COMAC has announced its production capacity increase plan and is expected to achieve an annual production target of 200 aircraft in 2029.
Potential value in the military field
The domestication of civil aviation passenger aircraft is not only a matter of commercial interest, but also of important strategic significance. In the past, China has modified special aircraft based on Boeing and Airbus platforms, such as early warning aircraft, anti-submarine aircraft, etc. With the maturity of domestic large aircraft, China will gain greater autonomy in the choice of military aid aircraft platforms.
High prototype research and development such as the C919 is underway to lay the foundation for subsequent high-altitude operational needs.This feature is important for military aid aircraft and can enhance its combat capabilities in high-altitude areas.
The CJ-1000A engine independently developed by China has completed extreme testing and plans to complete airworthiness certification before 2027. Once the domestic engine is successfully equipped, it will completely solve the "heart" bottleneck of China's aviation industry and provide a completely autonomous and controllable platform for military modification.
China Comac is also developing the wide-body passenger aircraft C929. This long-range wide-body passenger aircraft can be used as a modification platform for special military aircraft such as tankers and early warning aircraft in the future. The maturity of domestic passenger aircraft will provide China Air Force with more platform options and reduce its reliance on imported platforms.
The landscape of the global aviation manufacturing industry is being reshaped. Workers at Airbus's Tianjin assembly line are working overtime, and it is expected that more A320 series aircraft will be produced in 2025. In Shanghai, COMAC workers are also accelerating the production of C919. The robotic arms on the production line are swinging in an orderly manner, and large domestic aircraft are gradually taking shape.
On the tarmac of Boeing Zhoushan Completion Center, several Boeing 737 MAXs that were supposed to be delivered to China Airlines are still quietly parked. Their future fate has become the most intuitive footnote of this game.
And Trump’s threat could eventually become a classic case of “making a wedding suit for others” – Airbus harvesting the market, China harvesting the opportunity of accelerating nationalization.
Source of information:
Trump threatens to restrict the export of Boeing aircraft parts to China, civil aviation experts: This move is devastating to Boeing
2025-10-12 09: 40 · Observer.com