At a meeting in the White House, Trump suddenly threw a phrase: “If we don’t impose tariffs, then we will lose national security.”
Trump is pulling the trade friction back on the table again and this time, he is only looking at one point: rare earth.
He did not mention anything else, not about agriculture, not about investment, the tone was tight, as long as China let go of rare-earth exports.
As soon as this happened, everyone understood: Trump's China strategy is taking a sharp turn.
Are tariffs said to be national security, mindfulness or calculation?
It’s not the first time Trump has hit tariffs, but this time he has added a point to link tariffs and national security.This statement sounds scary, can be thought of carefully, and actually reveals his inner unrest.
He also knows that the effect of tariffs has become less and less obvious now. Companies in the United States couldn't stand it, and ordinary people began to complain about high prices. He was anxious when the trade war had reached this point.
So he changed his point of view, describing tariffs as a need for national security, trying to make a larger resonance.
But the real change was that he staked all his chips on rare earths. In the past, he would also raise other demands, such as requirements for China to buy more American products and open up its market. But now, he only has one request left: release rare earths.
This change was actually due to his realization that other paths were no longer feasible and that there were not many things he could use to coerce China, except rare earths that were still useful. Unfortunately, he still didn't understand that China's attitude on this matter has never been negotiable.
Rare earths, in the final analysis, are China's resources. How China wants to use and distribute it is up to China itself. Trump wants to suppress China with a "national security", which is too simple to think.
The response from the Chinese Foreign Ministry is very clear:
"China's competent authorities have clarified their position on the policy of rare earth export control, and China's position is consistent and clear. On the other hand, the United States threatened and intimidated, imposed high tariffs, and introduced new restrictions while talking. This is not the right way to deal with China.“
Rare-earth resources are not what anyone wants to get, and control is based on resource conservation and sustainability considerations and will not change due to external pressure.
China doesn't give face, but it's hard and confident
When China said "no" this time, it was not emotional or belligerent, but it was well-founded and prepared.
From the policy perspective of these years, China’s attitude toward rare earth has been clear. control is not a day-to-day affair, nor is it to target whom, but to protect its own resources.
After all, this key material is equally important to China's future development and cannot be easily lost.
More importantly, it is not the first time that China faces such pressure, as China experienced a similar external game more than a decade ago, also because the issue of rare earth sparked controversy at the time.
But China has always adhered to its own rhythm, not being driven by the rhythm. This time in the face of Trump's single demands, China has no compromise as before. Why? because China is no longer the country that can only passively respond, now China, more boldly say "no".
At a time when the global industrial chain is changing rapidly, the value of rare earths is self-evident. Whoever masters rare earths will have more say in the initiative of high-end manufacturing.
China clearly knows that this card in its hands cannot be played easily. And this is exactly what Trump is interested in. Unfortunately, he used it the wrong way. He wanted to use threats and tariffs to force China into a position of concessions, but China did not accept this move at all this time.
Trump did not dare to play the remaining few cards easily
It can be seen that Trump has really thought about the rare earth this time, and it also shows that he has not much card in his hand. In addition to the rare earth, he of course has some options, such as hype on the Taiwan issue, or make a little move in the South China Sea.
But these options, he did not dare to move easily.The reason is simple: the cost is too high, the risk is too high.
First of all, Taiwan.Though Trump has not spoken loosely, there have been very few practical moves against Taiwan since he took office.The arms sales are not as frequent as their predecessors, and there are no high-ranking officials who visit each other.
He knows that once something happens in the Taiwan Strait, the United States really has to shoulder it hard, and the domestic opposition will not be small. Especially at present, the economic situation in the United States is unstable and the military expenditure is tight, so he doesn't dare to act rashly.
As for the South China Sea, it was even thunderstorms and little rain.U.S. naval ships came back and went around a few rounds, and did something like it could be, really to move, Washington did not have to have that courage.
Moreover, the country around the South China Sea is not a fool, the mouth is screaming, and the heart is clear that once the gun is wiped out of fire, the loss is not only China, but the United States itself has to go in.
So in the final analysis, what Trump can really move is actually the trade piece. He wants to use rare earths as a breakthrough, because he wants to find a low-cost, high-return way to solve the deadlock.
But China's refusal this time is equivalent to directly blocking his retreat. The current situation is that if you don't let me, I won't touch you either. No one is willing to give way first. But this deadlock must be broken by someone.
Of course, Trump can continue to increase the number, such as throwing out a new round of tariff threats or even setting a timetable to force China to express its position. But it's hard to say whether this will work.
Judging from past experience, China does not follow this approach. Every time the United States shouts harder, the calmer China becomes. Because China knows that once it is followed by a rhythm, it will be tantamount to handing over the initiative.
This impasse, whoever blinketh first.
Up to now, the game between China and the United States on the rare earth issue is not only an economic dispute, but more like a confrontation about the strategic bottom line. Trump only stares at one point, indicating that he is in a hurry; However, China steadily refused, indicating that it did not panic.
This contrast is actually a true reflection of the current strength and confidence of both sides.
Is there any other way for Trump? Yes, but they are all more expensive options. He himself knows that if he doesn't open a step, he may end up forcing himself into a dead end.
China, on the other hand, is neither proactively provocative nor easily concessive, showing a mature strategic endurance.On this big chessboard, everyone wants to win, but nobody wants to lose too quickly.
I'm afraid there will be no result in this contest in the short term. What Trump wants is too direct, and what China gives is too firm. There is no room for manoeuvre in the middle, we can only see who can hold out longer. But one thing is clear: China will not let go easily because of temporary pressure, especially on core resources such as rare earths, let alone make any exchange.
Next, Trump may also speak loud, and throw new demands, but how it works, I am afraid that even he himself will not end. China will not sit and wait, but continue to follow its own route, without interference from the outside.
It is not time to see whether the two sides have the sincerity to really want to talk, rather than who cried louder.
ended
Looking back at this dispute, Trump wants to exchange rare earths for a respite, but China is unwilling to hand over its cards. On the surface, it is a trade issue, but in fact it has already evolved into a confrontation over strategic dominance.
Everyone knows that resources are the lifeblood of the country, so how can we just agree? China said "no" this time, which carried great weight. As for Trump, whether he will continue to increase the number, I am afraid he is also calculating in his heart.
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