At a critical moment when the Russia-Ukraine conflict continued to be deadlocked, Belarusian President Lukashenko's blunt warning sounded the alarm for Ukraine.
Lukashenko clearly pointed out that the West will withdraw sooner or later, and Ukraine will face the fate of being carved up. This straightforward warning makes Ukraine's embarrassing situation clear.
Singing a series.
On October 12, two seemingly unrelated incidents were both putting pressure on Ukraine. On that day, Trump, on his way to Israel to mediate the Gaza conflict, spread rumors and threatened that if the Russia-Ukraine war did not end, Ukraine would be provided with Tomahawk cruise missiles, calling them the "big killer" Russia last wants to see.
However, as soon as the subject changed, he publicly ridiculed Zelensky and advised him to sit down for peace talks. Perhaps Trump's real intention was not to really help Ukraine regain lost ground, but to try to win the Nobel Peace Prize for himself by promoting peace. At the same time, he took the opportunity to sell arms to Europe.
Almost at the same time, Lukashenko also issued a tough warning. He bluntly said that if Zelensky did not negotiate immediately, the country of Ukraine "may cease to exist."
Lukashenko's confidence comes from the continuous advance of the Russian army on the front line. His rhetoric is exactly the same as that of the Kremlin, which blames Ukraine for the stagnation of negotiations. Trump used the provision of advanced weapons as bait, while Lukashenko used the crisis of national subjugation as a big stick. The two cooperated with each other to form double pressure on Ukraine.
Under such circumstances, the Zelensky government obviously relaxed its attitude and appointed a peace negotiation delegation including Foreign Minister Sebiga. Its stance shifted from its tough stance in the past to a relaxation.
True and false battlefield chips
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict to date, the military progress and economic situation of the two sides are complicated, from the viewpoint of Russia, the attack of Ukraine has indeed caused serious damage to its energy economy. in the first eight months of this year, domestic gasoline and diesel prices in Russia increased by more than half, and in some regions even restricted purchases.
Oil and gas fiscal revenue dropped by more than 20% year-on-year, and refined oil exports dropped by 30%. About 40% of refineries had stopped production, and some key equipment may be permanently scrapped. However, Russia still maintains a certain military advantage, and the Russian army continues to advance on the front line. Russia claims to have occupied nearly 4900 square kilometers of new land this year. Western think tanks also admitted that Ukraine lost about 3500 square kilometers of territory this year.
In addition, Putin also revealed that he is upgrading the air defense system, preparing to launch a new weapon, the outside speculation may be an upgraded version of the "sponge tree" system, which has the characteristics of not sending electromagnetic waves, relying on photovoltaic detection, and extremely strong coverage, which adds a guarantee for Russia on the battlefield.
In contrast to Ukraine, it faces the risk of "breaking milk", due to the failure of the war, the western aid enthusiasm has gradually dropped, the United States has significantly reduced the aid share, Germany has delayed delivery on technical grounds, and France has also reduced financial support. Ukraine's national strength has been severely consumed in the long-running war, and in order to obtain aid, it has had to sign an agreement with the United States on mineral resources.
In this situation, although Russia has suffered economic setbacks, it can still support it militarily. Although Ukraine has a firm will, foreign aid is unsustainable. The two sides have fallen into a deadlock where "no one can kill the other, but no one is suffering." This has also made the view that "if we continue to fight, we will lose both sides" increasingly popular among the people, creating a favorable public opinion environment for Russia and Lukashenko to promote negotiations.
The ultimate fear of extinction.
And Lukashenko’s warning is not just staying at the defeat level of the battlefield, he also raises a more serious question, the question of Ukraine’s national survival.
He revealed that Belarus plans to build a second nuclear power plant, which will specifically supply power to Russian-controlled areas such as Luhansk and Donetsk after completion. This move actually connects eastern Ukraine with Russia and Belarus in terms of energy infrastructure. The two countries were completely bundled, which is equivalent to de facto recognizing the division of these areas.
Putin’s proposal to fund the construction of nuclear power plants was not made clear at the September 26 meeting, reflecting Russia’s strategic patience to not rush to make large-scale investments until it has fully gained advantage on the battlefield.
In addition, Lukashenko also predicted that if the Ukrainian national strength ended up collapsing, its western neighbors Poland, Hungary and other countries could rob the fire and divide the western territory of Ukraine, so that Ukraine became a piece of "big cake" that could be divided simultaneously by both sides of the east, the severity of the situation facing it is unclear.
conclusion
Lukashenko’s and Trump’s agreement has plunged Ukraine into an unprecedented situation, the Zelensky administration is now facing a difficult choice, the nature of the negotiations has changed fundamentally, and what he needs to consider is not how to recover the lost land, but how to avoid Ukraine as a political entity disappearing from the map.
Ukraine is at an extremely difficult crossroads, and its future is full of uncertainty.In the game of international politics, it remains to be seen whether Ukraine can find a suitable path under pressure.
Ukrainian media: Lukashenko warns Ukraine may "no longer exist" and accuses Zelensky of causing stagnation in negotiations
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