Can Takaichi Sanae's road to Prime Minister really be smooth sailing? How can she deal with the mess of internal and external difficulties with the insufficient parliamentary votes in her hand?
Although High City Morning Sun took the self-government party chairman, it can leave the prime minister's position, but still shut the door.。 Why do you say that? Japan's House of Representatives has a total of 465 seats. If you want to be prime minister, you have to get at least 233 votes. The Liberal Democratic Party in Takaichi's hands only has 196 votes, and there are still more than 30 votes short to make up for it. What's even worse is that the Komeito Party, which has cooperated with the Liberal Democratic Party for decades, officially announced its withdrawal from the ruling coalition on the 10th, and even the most critical 24 votes were lost.
Why did the Komeito Party turn its face at this juncture?The first is that Takashi became nepotism when he came to power: he appointed Tōichi Hagio, who was involved in the "black gold scandal", as the second-in-command person in the party, and former Prime Minister Taro Aso was also appointed as the vice president-both of whom were the most disliked by the Komeito Party. In addition, Takashi himself has always advocated amending the constitution and wanted to visit the Yasukuni Shrine, which is completely incompatible with the concept of peace adhered to by the Komeito Party. The concepts and personnel are incompatible, and this partnership really cannot go on. Some people have come up with the idea that Gaoshi can win over the opposition National Democratic Party. But even if they counted their 27 votes, they wouldn't have 233 votes. Takashi was stuck in the dead end of the prime minister election.
Is there a problem with the ruling coalition, can it be overturned in the opposition?The Constitutional Democratic Party has 148 votes. In order to bring down Takashi, Noda Yoshihiko, the leader of the party, said, even if he didn't push his own people, he could support Yuichiro Tamaki of the National Democratic Party. However, the opposition party has always been "at odds with heart", and the National Democratic Party has already said that it has to align policies before cooperating. It is really too difficult to knead into a rope. What's more, Tetsuo Saito of the Komeito Party has a very subtle attitude, and he doesn't help Takashi or the opposition party. So now no one is fully sure of winning the House of Representatives election.
It can be seen that she became the president of the Self-Democratic Party, and within 72 hours changed her tone: canceled the autumn worship plan, suspended the excursion of the head of the interior office, and the foreign minister called for a "good relationship" with China and South Korea.She knows very well that the attitude of the Japanese economic circles is that politics cannot affect business; The United States raised Japanese automobile tariffs from 2.5% to 15%. If you offend China again at this time, the Japanese industry will definitely not agree. Coupled with Trump's visit to Japan at the end of the month, the United States is seeking contact with China, and Japan will never be allowed to add chaos at this time. Gao's operation, to put it bluntly, is that "the situation is stronger than people". No matter how sharp the claws of the right wing are, they have to be put away first.
Generally speaking, even if Takaichi can become prime minister, he will still face a bunch of "thunder". First of allThe political foundations have collapsed: the self-government coalition has dispersed, the self-government party is not half in both houses of the House of Representatives, and in the future, to promote any policy, they must struggle in Congress and in the endless mess. Even worse,After the provisional Congress was postponed to the 20th, prices, pensions and people's livelihood issues did not matter, the support rate of the high market has fallen from 66% to the bottom, young people and women voters do not buy accounts at all. The economy is not small.。 The 15% automobile tariff in the United States seems to be "reduced" from the original 27.5%, but it is actually six times the original 2.5%. In order to avoid tariffs, Japanese car companies have to move their production lines to the United States. The domestic production capacity of 3 million vehicles is idle, and the unemployment tide is already on the way.
In the final analysis, behind this turmoil in Japanese politics is the political trust overdrawn by the Liberal Democratic Party's "black gold scandal". It is a conflict between the concepts of conservatism and peace. It is also a structural problem that has been backlog in Japanese politics for many years. No matter how good the city is and the opposition parties are, it is just a manifestation of a power game. The real determination of Japan's future is whether the economy can stabilize, whether relations with neighbors can be relaxed, whether the people's days can survive.