Speaking of the Taiwan Strait issue, many people are really worried in recent years. Early reunification is the national justice, but external forces always like to intervene, which makes the situation tense.

The United States, in particular, sells weapons to Taiwan Province and encourages "Taiwan independence" elements, which is simply adding fuel to the fire. As an important partner of China, Russia was naturally pulled in and asked: If the mainland really wants to unify Taiwan Province by force, will you help?

Putin, the old fox, in a word at the time, put this matter to death, with a clear attitude: not to go here, but support China's sovereignty.

The two countries have been entangled since the 1950s, during the Soviet period they have built a lot of industrial bases for China, and then the Soviet Union has turned their faces and border battles.In the 1990s Gorbachev¡¯s reform failed, the Soviet Union disintegrated, and China and Russia slowly reconciled.

Entering the 21st century, after Putin came to power, Sino-Russian trade has risen rapidly, from US $8 billion in 2000 to US $240 billion in 2024. It mainly relies on energy exports. Russia sells oil and gas, and China buys it happily. Militarily, they are also getting closer, and joint military exercises are held every year. Before the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics, the two also signed an unlimited partnership declaration.

Russia is contained by the West internationally, and China is also facing a trade war. The two give each other strength: China does not join the West in sanctioning Russia, and Russia helps China block guns in the UN Security Council.

In turn, China and Russia are iron-barrel friends, but not a military alliance. Russia has its own small calculator, especially now deep in the Ukrainian dungeon. In February 2022, Russia launched a special military operation and wanted to speed up the war, and the result is dragged to now, the West has helped Ukraine, NATO has expanded, the Russian economy has not collapsed, but military spending is huge, it has to spend hundreds of millions of dollars a day. Putin has to stabilize in the country, energy exports have become life-saving crust, China is the biggest buyer.

To help China dominate Taiwan? then you have to measure the quantity, if the wave comes in, the West will add sanctions, Russia can withstand? moreover, the Taiwan issue is China's internal affairs, Russia has openly expressed its support for one China, but in actual action, more is diplomatic solidarity, will not send troops or provide direct military aid.

The key is Putin's words. In June 2021, NBC interviewed Putin. The reporter asked a sharp question: If the People's Liberation Army of China attacked Taiwan, how would Russia react? Putin did not answer the question directly, but instead asked: "What? Do you know that the mainland of China is preparing to reunify Taiwan by force? I don't know anything about it."

Then he added: ¡°Politics doesn¡¯t have if.¡± This was said overwhelmingly, on the surface pushed clean, actually kicked the ball back to reporters, and also emphasized not interfering in domestic affairs. The interview was recorded on June 11, broadcast on June 15, Putin was just dealing with domestic vaccines and border affairs, the interview lasted more than an hour, NBC wanted to dig a pit, and Putin had all resolved.

Why did Putin answer this? Logically makes sense. Russia's diplomatic principle is to respect sovereignty and not interfere in internal affairs, which is in line with China. It is clearly written in the United Nations Charter that you should not stretch out your hands in affairs between countries. Putin has repeatedly stated publicly that there is only one China in the world and Taiwan is an inseparable part of China.

In October 2023, he reiterated this point during his visit to China. Russia's failure to help is not because it is not unjust, but because it is a realistic consideration. The main force of the Russian army is now in Ukraine, with a lot of equipment wear and tear. Putin still has to stabilize the hearts of the people before the 2024 election. If we divide our troops to the Taiwan Strait again, domestic opposition will surely rise. Coupled with the complementary economies of China and Russia, China buys Russia's oil and gas, and Russia buys China's drones and electronic equipment. Cooperation is stable, why take risks?

In the Russian presidential election in March 2024, he was elected with 87% of the votes. After winning the election on March 18, he bluntly said: "Those countries that are not friendly to China are doomed to fail if they provoke China on the Taiwan issue." A spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China expressed his high appreciation on the spot. These words sounded tough, but they were still diplomatic and did not mention help.

On his third visit to China in May, Putin signed a joint statement reaffirming his support for one China, but military cooperation was limited to joint exercises and intelligence sharing and did not involve specific actions in the Taiwan Sea.

Russia's position is also linked to the conflict in Ukraine. China remains neutral on the Russian-Ukrainian issue and pushes for a ceasefire dialogue, which makes Putin aware. In March 2023, Putin visited China, and China proposed a 12-point peace plan, which Russia did not fully adopt, but thanked China for its indifference. In contrast to the West, NATO aided Ukraine hundreds of billions of dollars, and F-16 fighter jets were soon delivered.

Russia knows that if China ruled Taiwan, the West would really jump, but Russia would not be an accelerating pioneer. Why? Because Russia itself has a lot to do. Now in September 2025, Ukraine is still on the front line, Russia controls parts of Donbass, but the pressure in the direction of Kharkov is not small.

From a global perspective, this does not have a small impact.The United States has long linked Russia and China together as "axis countries", but the reality is far from the same.The Carnegie International Peace Foundation in August 2024, analyzing that Russia may help China with intelligence or logistics in the Taiwan Sea battle, but will not directly participate in the war.

The reason is simple: the Russian navy is weak, the Pacific fleet is mainly in Vladivostok, the far waters are unable to rescue near fire. In addition to the U.S. Seventh Fleet in the Western Pacific, the risk of Russian interference is too high. Russia is more inclined to speak out in the United Nations, condemning the U.S. "armed Taiwan".