With the calendar twisting, we are closer to the fourth year of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. The winds outside the window bring deep autumn coldness, as if the complex situation above Eastern Europe was also quietly changing. Though the rumors of “reversal” were spreading around, the fog and concerns behind it became clearer.
In the morning, I received anxious news: the continued withdrawal of the Krasnohorivka defense line in Donetsk, the defense of Ukrainian soldiers in the ruins turned into an endless consumption war; the situation in Kharkov’s Kupyansk worsened, and the Russian army had penetrated into the center of the city, and the supply line was in danger. These frontline details were far more eye-catching than the macro “reversal of the situation”, as the traces left by the Russian drone crowd were not dissipated – on October 7th, 183 drones flew from Three States, destroying not only the Chernobyl oil tanks and railroads, but even more seriously hitting Ukraine’s fragile energy supply. Today, many still rely on emergency power supply
At noon news focused on the “Tax” missile, which has made Trump’s unresolved “blade” the most dramatic element in the current situation. Two days after talking to the Russians, Zelensky finally said he would meet in Washington on the 17th, focusing on the “Tax” and air defense systems, and has presented the approximate amount needed. The weight of this is indisputable – 1600 kilometres of range, which means that Ukraine can finally reach Russia in depth, and even the core target around Moscow. However, whether the “Save Rice” can really catch, is still an unknown word. Trump has always made a real hypothesis, and he warned Putin “not ending the conflict will bring you disaster”, while also saying that it is to negotiate first with Putin, after all, it is a “situation
After reading through old news and new explanations in the afternoon, I realized that the location of Budapest, Hungary was very meaningful. This city, which is not a member of the International Criminal Court, allows Putin to avoid legal risks, and has a special historical connection with Ukraine due to the Budapest Memorandum, has become a negotiating stage led by Trump. However, when the stage was set up, the actors 'scripts were completely different. Putin said that the core of expert-level consultations should be "safeguarding national interests" and also hinted that new weapons were about to be unveiled, which was obviously a response to the "Tomahawk"; Zelensky wanted to rely on the "Tomahawk" to increase bargaining chips, but even Belarus President Lukashenko's warning of "going home after the war is over"-the harsh words "if we drag on, Ukraine may disappear from the map" are by no means groundless; Trump's calculations are the most practical. He does not want to really let the situation get out of control, but also relies on leading the negotiations to show his influence. After all, his core demand has never been "victory for Ukraine," but just "achieving a ceasefire." This kind of three-party wrestling makes the talks more like a dangerous balancing act, and the "tomahawk" is just a weight pushed to the stage.
In the evening, Chen Yu's analysis allowed me to sort out the mess: Trump's "Tomahawk" was essentially putting pressure on Russia. This was an obvious policy shift in recent months, but there was still huge uncertainty about supply; even if it could be implemented, it would not change the balance of power on the battlefield, but would instead attract crazy attacks from the Russian army on the launch facilities. What is exposed is that the current negotiation space between Russia and Ukraine has been greatly reduced. Both sides are waiting for the other party to "blink" and neither is willing to give in first. The "good day" Zelensky wanted was premised on stabilizing the battlefield, providing assistance, and favorable negotiations, but now nothing has been settled-the front line is lost, the "tomahawk" is gone, and the prospects for the talks are slim. Even he himself once hinted that "go home when the war is over." The suffering of the wartime president has long been written on his face.
When the night came, Kiev received the news of a partial power outage. Those in the basement who escaped a possible airstrike, the soldiers who counted the days in the front line, probably didn’t care about the argument of “reversing the situation” or curbing the “strike axis” belonging. For them, the so-called “good days” might just be able to sleep and use a stable electric light. While the negotiating table in Budapest has not yet opened, Washington’s promises are still half empty.
The wind blew again, and the battle report on the desk turned a page. Zelensky will go to Washington tomorrow, and the talks the day after tomorrow are still hanging. The so-called "reversal" may never be the victory or defeat of the battlefield, but who understands the weight of reality first in this long consumption.