China has just announced that it will strengthen export controls for rare-earth materials, and a pot has exploded around the White House.In a sudden closed-door meeting, Trump blasphemed Commerce Minister Lutnik, saying he was unable to act and ruined the situation.
Trump even called Lutnik a "dummy" in front of him, accusing him of provoking China without a request, completely ruining the situation that could still be eased.
Although it was an internal quarrel on the surface, it actually led to a bigger problem behind it: the strategic coordination of China within the White House was out of control, the rhythm of the United States' external game was disrupted, and even its always close allies began to hesitate. This is not someone's mistake, but a country's foreign policy is wrong.
The White House was in a row, and the U.S. strategy towards China became "each singing its own tune"
China has announced that it will further tighten its exports of rare-earth materials, which are critical to U.S. high-end manufacturing and defense industries. The news comes out that the U.S. is in a hurry and the most pressing thing is Trump himself.
He originally wanted to do some pattern before the future APEC summit, ready to do a little "moderate gesture" on the issue of China, adding points for himself to re-shape the image of the leader of the great powers. But in this short-lived eye, Commerce Minister Lutnik, without the presidential authorization, pushed for a new sanction, specifically aimed at China's key technology enterprises.
Trump immediately summoned a high-level meeting after he learned that it was a rage, he thought that Lutnik did what he shouldn’t do and disrupted the entire diplomatic rhythm of the White House. Informed people revealed that Trump was very excited at the time, and even when the public insulted Lutnik “stupidly stupid.”
The latter's face was livid and left halfway. What was even more embarrassing was that after the meeting, other officials also began to complain privately, saying that this was not the first time this practice of "singing his own tune" was used.
On the surface, this storm is a conflict of power and responsibility between the president and his subordinates, but in essence, it exposes deeper problems. The Trump administration has been wavering in its attitude towards China, trying to show toughness while looking for room for negotiation. This inconsistent strategy has led many internal departments to "make their own decisions", regardless of the overall diplomatic rhythm of the White House.
In the past few years, this kind of chaos is no longer an accidental event, but the norm. Whenever China introduces a new policy, there are people in the United States who are anxious to "respond", whether it is deliberate or not, whether it is the president's intention or not. Over time, an atmosphere of "grabbing credit" has been formed within the White House. Whoever makes the move first will appear tougher. But the problem is, toughness is not the end, coordination is the key. Once the rhythm is chaotic, the initiative will be handed over to others.
The advantage is no longer there, and the United States began to try to "hold together for warmth"
In the past, the U.S. has always been confident in its policy towards China, and felt that as long as they moved their fingers, they could let China step back. But now this psychological advantage is clearly absent. Trump is still in the direction, and former ambassador to China Burns has openly stated that the U.S. and China have formed a situation of "equal enemy."
While Burns’ statements are not officially adjusted, as a former frontline diplomat, his remarks reflect a perception of reality within the United States.The United States over the years has taken a series of restrictive measures against China, from trade war to technological blockade, from investment restriction to public opinion offensive, using almost every possible trick.
But the results were not satisfactory. Not only has China not backed down, but has accelerated the pace of independent research and development in some key areas. Now, it is becoming increasingly difficult for the United States to continue to suppress China.
Especially in terms of supply chains, the vulnerabilities of the United States are more obviously exposed. As soon as the rare earth policy came out, American high-tech companies immediately felt the pressure. Trump wanted to make China make concessions by "suppressing". As a result, China used a new export regulation to counter the army. This trick is not only effective, but also quite accurate. It specifically targets the weakness of the United States.
In this context, another voice began to appear within the United States: since it is not possible to make sure of itself, then try to find a way to pull up partners together.This is not difficult to understand, after all, the era of the past "America said count" has ended, want to maintain influence, can only rely on "the combination is strong".
The alliance is no longer reliable, and Japan begins to "give priority to self-protection"
The U.S. wants to form a circle of encirclement against China by drawing allies, this strategy has been around for a long time. Trump's approach here has not changed, and is still lobbying traditional allies such as Japan and South Korea, Europe, hoping that they will "stand up" on the issue of China.
The most obvious change comes from Japan. Recently, the Japanese government has obviously turned to a low profile in dealing with Taiwan-related affairs. Before, it said that it would promote relevant trade agreements, but now it suddenly presses the pause button. This attitude change is not accidental, but due to the judgment of real interests.
Japanese enterprises have a small share of the Chinese market, and many high-end manufacturing industries rely on Chinese parts and consumer markets.If Beijing is angry at the Taiwan issue and is counter-controlled, the price is probably not the U.S. can afford.
Japan's attitude has actually shown signs for a long time. For example, the once active hardliners against China in Japanese politics have recently lost successively in the election campaign. Politicians like Takaichi Sanae, who once pushed for the "anti-China" policy, lost the support of the alliance because of their radical stance, and even the road to the Prime Minister was blocked. This shows that the political trend in Japan is also changing, and the past strategy of "confronting" with the United States is no longer popular.
More importantly, not only Japan, but also Europe is beginning to hesitate. Although Germany and France pay lip service to "values diplomacy", they increasingly emphasize "strategic autonomy" in practical policies. They are unwilling to choose sides between China and the United States, let alone take economic risks for the sake of U.S. strategy. The United States wanted to rely on the alliance to exert its strength on China, but found that "the team is not easy to lead." Many people watched while walking, waiting to see the wind direction.
This shows that the so-called "encirclement of China" is no longer monolithic. All countries have their own calculations, and economic interests are their most concerned about. The United States wants to recruit people to form a team, but others may not be willing to buy it. Especially after China has demonstrated stability and countermeasures, many countries prefer to remain flexible and are unwilling to take sides easily.
conclusion
This is not as simple as a verbal battle between Trump and Lutnick, nor is it as easy as a policy mistake. From the chaos within the White House, to the out-of-control strategic rhythm, to the uncertainty of alliance support, the true state of the U.S. layout towards China is being revealed little by little.
China's counter-measure is not an emotional response, but a powerful rhythm control, forcing the United States to rethink its style of play. The competition between China and the United States is still going on, but who can really take the initiative may no longer depend on who shouts louder, but on who can stabilize the position and see the situation clearly. To win, the United States should not only be tough, but also be calm.
Information source: Observer Network