Statement | The content of this article is written with authoritative materials and personal opinions. The source and screenshots of the literature have been marked at the end of the article. Please know
In October 2025, Belarusian President Lukashenko made some shocking remarks in an interview:
"If Ukraine does not come to the negotiating table immediately, it may disappear completely as a country."
This word is like a heavy hammer, striking the nerves of the already tense Russian Ukrainian warfare.
For a time, the world's attention was focused on this: Is this the peak of psychological warfare carefully planned by the Russian-Belarusian camp, or is it a ruthless prediction of the cruel reality on the front line?
Lukashenko's warning and the Kremlin's duet
Lukashenko’s “Aware of the Dead Country” is not an isolated event, but rather a part of a carefully planned drama.
Just two days before his interview, on October 10, Kremlin spokesman Peskov had set the stage for the play.
Peskov publicly stated at that time that Russia had already submitted a detailed draft peace memorandum, proposing to set up three working groups to promote negotiations, but the negotiations stalled "due to Ukrainian reasons."
This statement seems plain, and the actual amount of information is huge.
It clearly sends a signal to the outside world that Russia has a plan, that Ukraine is rejecting peace.
immediately afterwards, Lukashenko appeared in an "unofficial" but more impactful way, directly targeting Ukrainian President Zelensky personally from the vague "Ukrainian side".
Lukashenko said that “the problem is not with the United States or Russia, but with Vladimir Zelensky” and called for “strong pressure” on him.
This song and harmony are seamless.
The Kremlin plays the role of "rationality" and poses a willingness to negotiate; Lukashenko plays the role of "rudeness" warner, exerting psychological pressure with the most extreme results.
The purpose of this "double play" is very clear: Separating Ukraine inside, separating Kiev from its Western allies, and putting all responsibility for the refusal to negotiate on Zelensky alone.
What is more profound is that Lukashenko also semi-disclosed the trump card of Russia's "peace plan", which is said to have been conveyed to the Trump team through Putin.
The core contents include: Ukraine renounced its sovereignty over the four states in the east, withdrew the Ukrainian troops from the relevant areas and froze the conflict with the current line of contact, and was jointly guaranteed by China and the UN Security Council.
It's almost telling the world that the door to negotiations is open, but the threshold has been set and the price is steep.
Behind this public opinion offensive is the strong endorsement of Russian military power.
Not long ago, the large-scale "West-2025" Russia-Belarus joint strategic exercise had just come to an end. The exercise even included plans for the use of non-strategic nuclear weapons. Putin went to the scene to observe it personally. The high degree of coordination between the Russia-Belarus military alliance is self-evident.
At the same time, according to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, on October 3, the Russian military "progressed forward on almost all the lines of contact."
In Lukashenko’s gate, “the unstoppable advance of the Russian army” was precisely the greatest tone he dared to give “the warning of the abduction.”
He mentioned the Russian forces advancing “thousands of kilometers” on the northern Donetsk line, advancing “six kilometers” in the direction of Kharkov, and the Pokrovsk warfare into white heat, these “workout” advances are gradually swallowing the Ukrainian military’s defense space and logistics supply lines.
Zelensky’s response
In the face of this “extreme pressure” that Russia and Belarus jointly performed, how did Kiev respond?
The choice of Ukrainian President Zelensky is to take a very risky “high-stakes”.
He ignored Lukashenko's warning, but on October 11, the day before Lukashenko's exclusive interview, he announced in a high-profile manner that he had a "good and fruitful" phone call with former U.S. President Trump.
The main theme of the conversation was the vital aspect of Ukraine – the air defense system.
Zelensky informed Trump of the Russian military's continued attack on Ukraine's energy facilities. And desperately hopes to obtain stronger air defense capabilities, even touching Ukraine's coveted Tomahawk cruise missile.
This clearly shows that Zelensky's strategy is still to "exchange strength for negotiation space."
He firmly believes that only by gaining a greater advantage on the battlefield, or at least stabilizing his position, can he have real bargaining chips in future negotiations.
Any compromise under the current disadvantage is tantamount to "surrender" and a betrayal of national sovereignty.
However, the gamble of Zelensky's big bet is an unbearable burden that the entire of Ukraine is bearing.
The price paid by Ukraine in the war to this day is staggering. The latest United Nations data lowered the country's permanent population to 29 million, which means that "the entire city of Beijing" disappeared into thin air before the war. In addition, more than 30,000 missing people were recorded.
In the military, there was a severe shortage of soldiers, and the age of recruitment decreased.
The shortage of ammunition is even more imminent, and it is reported that its inventory is "only enough for twenty days of high-intensity shooting."
The economy is already overwhelmed.
The cost of the war was so huge that "the money burned every day is equivalent to the entire budget of the country for a day." The country's operations relied entirely on Western loans.
The life of ordinary people is even more difficult. The price of bread has increased by 30%, the bus fare has increased by 20%, and people's livelihood is in decline.
Zelensky is facing a cruel situation: “Hard jump, the country is broken; soft jump, the reputation is broken.”
He chose to remain tough and hopes that help from the West will be delivered in time, especially by Trump, a potential mediator who has made the slogan “End the War in 24 Hours.”
However, there is often a time lag between the promise of aid and the reality. There are many examples of armored vehicles promised to be delivered in the spring but not shipped into the summer.
This uncertainty is the biggest risk in Ukraine’s “huge stake.”
To sum up, Lukashenko's "warning of national subjugation" is by no means a simple threat.
It is a general offensive psychological warfare launched by the Russia-Belarus alliance against the background of realizing that Ukraine's national strength is weakening, internal pressure is increasing, and Western aid is unstable.
It combined military superiority on the battlefield, diplomatic isolation tactics with extreme pressure on public opinion in an attempt to crush the resistance of Zelensky’s government.
References:
Lukashenko warns that Ukraine may "no longer exist" and blames Zelensky for stalling negotiations
2025-10-13 16:10·Beijing News Network