A U.S. decision 20 days later could help China completely win the tariff war, and even Trump would like to go to the scene to witness the results personally.
November 5th is an extremely important day for US President Trump. Because on this day, the U.S. Supreme Court will hold a hearing to determine whether Trump's tariff policy is legal.
As we all know, the tariff war is the core agenda of Trump 2.0. If the Supreme Court makes an "illegal" verdict, it will not only be a heavy blow to the entire Trump administration, but will also help China and even the world completely win this tariff war.
For this, Trump seems to have arranged it in advance, and it is time to witness it on the scene.
He told the outside world at the White House that he might attend the Supreme Court. Although he had faced some major cases, he had never done so before.
Trump called the case "one of the most important cases ever" and said the consequences of the defeat would be that the United States would face the world "without defenses", the economy would fall into trouble, and the finances would fall into chaos.
Although this continues Trump's usual exaggeration, the Supreme Court's attitude will indeed have a huge impact on this U.S. government.
Standing from Trump’s perspective, he did have a reason to appear on the scene and witness the end.
Regardless of technical issues, Trump's appearance at the hearing as president is itself an extremely strong signal. Demonstrate how seriously he takes his core agenda.
Whether this situation will affect the judges 'judgment is also unknown.
Currently, of the nine U.S. Supreme Judges, six are conservatives, three are liberals.While the position is not necessarily the most important factor in influencing the judges’ judgment, the conservative majority is clearly more likely to be Trump’s opinion than the case of a liberal judge’s majority.
In addition, Trump’s personal appearance can also be seen as a “pressure” that sends a clear signal to the major judges that the president is watching you.
Justices are also human beings and cannot just follow set procedures like machines.
Even so, many people are still not optimistic about the Supreme Court's possible ruling.
To know, the trial can go to the Supreme Court, indicating that the lower court has already had a result, and these results, all unfavorable to Trump.
At the end of May, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that Trump "exceeded his authority" by invoking the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose so-called "reciprocal tariffs" on trading partners.
The President of the United States has no "unrestricted tariff power" and needs to be restricted by Congress.
The Trump administration, of course, could not surrender, and appealed a few minutes after the decision came out. From this, it can be seen that for the court to do something unfavorable to its own decision, the Trump administration actually has a forecast, the appeal has long been ready.
The lawsuit then went to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit. After several months of trial, just before September, the judge of the court voted 7-4 to rule that the Trump administration's "reciprocal tariffs" exceeded its authority and violated the law.
In the first and second instance, the interpretation is the same.
Trump still refused, and the lawsuit reached the Supreme Court.
In fact, it is not difficult to find that if it is really to find the basis from the legal provisions, the Trump administration is not very likely to win this trial, otherwise it will not encounter the first-instance second-instance defeat.
In fact, when Trump talks about the matter, he is not talking about the law, but politics.As he said this time, if this trial is defeated, it will bring serious harm to the United States.
Trump’s logic is that the United States is facing a “crisis” in which the framework of the clause is still quietly adhered to, and only mistakes his “major”.
This also corresponds to one of his previous statements: He who saves the country does not violate any law.
It seems that Trump is a big man, but his logic has a core question – is what he’s doing really good for the United States?
However, this is not the focus of our discussion, we are concerned about the Supreme Court decision itself.
If the Supreme Court overturns the previous ruling, it will undoubtedly be an "extreme turnaround" for the Trump administration, and they will also have more confidence to fight tariff wars with other countries, and may even introduce further tariff measures.
However, if the trial loses, the cost may also be heavy.U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent warned that if the trial loses, the U.S. would have to "return tariffs", and the number could account for "half".
Since Trump announced tariffs, U.S. tariffs have reached the level of hundreds of billions of dollars.
In Besant's view, this is very "scary".
Other scholars pointed out that if this really happens, the issue of compensation, interest, etc. cannot be ignored by the United States.
Although the specific situation is more complicated, it can be sure that if Trump this time defeated the Supreme Court case, the result would be "full loss".
Without a doubt, from the perspective of Trump, he must now seize any opportunity to try to get the Supreme Court to make a judgment in his favor and to preserve his “maximum career.”