The game between China and the United States has entered the deep water area, and rare earths have become a new focus. Just after China successively introduced new rare earth export control regulations, the United States finally couldn't hold back. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessen was in a hurry and said directly: The United States can extend the "truce period" of tariffs on China, as long as China relents on the rare earth issue. But this time, I'm afraid the United States will be disappointed again.

You know, rare earth is not an ordinary mineral resource. It is known as an "industrial vitamin" and "high-tech lifeblood" and involves key fields such as chips, new energy, electric vehicles, military industry, and aerospace. In this battle without smoke, what China holds in its hands is the trump card that can change the pattern of the global science and technology industry.

Last week, China's Ministry of Commerce issued six consecutive announcements to further strengthen the supervision of the entire process of rare earth exports, especially in high-end application fields, which imposed strict restrictions on technology transfer, ingredient extraction, and third-party exports. The outside world was in an uproar, and the American political circles reacted most fiercely.

Besent couldn't sit down, he released the so-called "coding" - extending the validity of the Sino-U.S. tariff ceasefire agreement, in exchange for China's rare-earth "fusion" - this proposal looks like a kind of "deal", but behind it is revealed, in fact, the anxiety and panic after the United States was hit.

If previous Sino-US trade negotiations were a tug-of-war, then this time the core of the rare earth issue is more like a "battle for life." China does not need to say much. It just moved the "tone" of rare earth management, and the United States feels real pressure.

Under the current agreement, the suspension clause on the 24% tariff between China and the United States will expire in November, and theoretically the two sides should start another round of trade consultations to re-evaluate and discuss how to handle a new phase.

Some people say that the United States does not want to talk anymore. In fact, it is not that the United States does not want to talk about it, but does not dare to talk about it because it has no trump cards in its hands that can suppress China. The card of "extending the truce period" played by Besent is more like self-rescue in essence-if it is not extended, American companies will also face high tariffs again, and for the current high inflation in the United States, this is undoubtedly worse.

Moreover, the United States is eager to talk about something else, such as soybean exports. In the past few years, China's soybean orders with the United States have dropped significantly, causing complaints from farmers in agricultural states in the United States. Coupled with the fact that the initiative in rare earths is not in its own hands, the United States naturally hopes to solve it in a package.

But obviously, China does not intend to accept such calculations.

Ironically, after throwing out the so-called ¡°coding code¡±, Bezent also specifically mentioned Chinese trade negotiator Li Zhen Steel, saying he ¡°visited the United States not invited to come from¡± and also ¡°pronounced unreasonable remarks¡±. but this speech, as early as the end of August, had been made public, when Li Zhen Steel made it clear that the differences between China and the United States should be resolved through equal dialogue, there was no cross-border speech.

The United States is now digging up old scores and picking on shortcomings. To put it bluntly, it means that it has broken its defenses. Because he understood that if China really "stuck" on rare earths, many industries in the United States would have problems. Just like technology and military giants such as Apple, Tesla, Raytheon, and Loma, which one does not rely on rare earths for a living?

So we see that the Trump administration has recently jumped higher and higher, what "to China 100% tax increases" and what "prohibits the import of Chinese edible oil", and even to China to say three and four, to South America, to Europe, is not dare to respond positively to this key issue of rare earth control.

What is reflected behind this is not only economic anxiety, but also panic about the rising voice of China.

China's move this time was not a hot-headed move, let alone a impulsive move, but a long-term plan for the situation in a thoughtful and step-by-step manner.

From Qualcomm's investigation, to port charges on U.S. ships, to the Commerce Ministry's striking rare-earth policies, they are using a systematic toolkit to cope with the escalating deterrence of the United States.

In contrast, apart from constantly issuing threats, the United States has almost no effective countermeasures. Even this so-called big bargaining chip "extension of the truce period" is essentially not alluring to China. On the contrary, it is the United States that is afraid that it will suffer another round of high taxes, so it is eager to ask China to sit down and "talk again."

Trump's old trouble again, hard in the mouth, waiting for China to "recognize a mistake" and put him off.But China was not the role that was passively beaten at the negotiating table a decade ago.

What we want is not so-called immunities or temporary compromises, but cooperation based on the principles of equality, mutual benefit and sovereignty.

Rare earths are our core resource and are not a bargaining chip for arbitrary bargaining.

More importantly, China has established a complete industrial chain in the field of rare earth, from mining, metallurgy to deep processing, to export control, each link is constantly upgrading, normalizing, and improving, relying not on blocking others, but on playing their own cards harder and more stable.

This rare-earth-driven trade war, to some extent, is no longer a mere tariff war, but a game between supply chain security and national interests.

The U.S. wants to use "extended ceasefire" to replace China, in the end, is to underestimate China's strategic determination.In the past we initially gave the opportunity to cooperate, but they once broke the agreement, increased the pressure, and now it is our turn to say "no".

And the U.S. also seems to have the illusion that China will make concessions under pressure, even if it is only a symbolic gesture.

China-US relations, of course, still have space, cooperation is also the way out, but on the basis of mutual respect and fair dialogue, and not who takes the bullet, who can win.

It is wishful thinking that the United States wants to rely on "big chips" in exchange for China's concessions. China's rare earth policy is not a "blockade", but a proper management, which is a response to the United States' suppression of China's high technology. At present, China and the United States are no longer a question of who relies on whom, but a question of who can be more patient and lay out. This time, the United States is playing "gambler's psychology", but China's response is obviously calmer and more effective.

Finally, this contest around rare earths will never stop at verbal confrontation. Next, whoever is more patient, understands strategy better, and can keep the bottom line better will be able to master the future.

In this regard, the United States is really afraid to get stuck.