Assad, the former Syrian leader in exile in Russia, is once again hanging by a thread. At the end of September, the news broke that he was poisoned and admitted to hospital again. Assad has never appeared in public since he fled to Moscow. What turning point will his fate face now? And how will the Russian-Syrian game play the big card of Assad?

On October 15, local time, Syrian interim government leader Shara met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow. This was Shara's first visit to Russia since Moscow ally former Syrian President Assad was overthrown by rebels led by Shara last year. On the day of the meeting, the two leaders discussed developments in the regional and international situation and ways of cooperation between Syria and Russia. For Shara, the most urgent domestic demands of this visit to Russia. Nothing more than formally submitting a request to Russia for the extradition of former President Assad. Behind this appeal lies the new regime's practical need to consolidate the legitimacy of its rule. As a result, Assad's fate has also been pushed to the forefront.

Earlier on October 13, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov was suddenly asked at an Arab national press conference: ¡°Did the former Syrian President Assad really be intoxicated in Moscow?¡±

According to the media, Bashar's poisoning occurred around September 20, allegedly poisoning at home while eating, toxins were detected to be neurotoxins, doctors urgently sent him to the hospital for treatment and isolation. About the details of poisoning, a Polish media pointed to the poison to the Soviet Neurotoxin "Novichok" developed during the Cold War. According to the Guardian, "Novichok" is very toxic, only a few milligrams can be deadly, the use method is even harder to find, as long as the mixed toxins are applied to objects that may be used, or the target contact with the skin can cause poisoning.

Senior Media Officer Sassu:

This poison use is a special, and also a relatively rare type of poisoning, the poisoning phenomenon is difficult to diagnose, but the symptoms are different from the current situation, it should be harmful to the central nerve, causing severe cough, difficulty breathing, and its attacks are extremely fast.

This time, although the Russian side made clarification, a reality that cannot be avoided is that since Assad fled Damascus to Russia at the end of last December, Assad has hardly appeared in public.

He was granted asylum with Putin's approval. For 10 months since then, the outside world has known nothing about the movements, residence, health, etc. of Assad and his entourage. The rise and fall of this "poisoning rumor" not only revolves around the fate of an exiled president, but also affects a deep game between Russia, the new regime in Syria, and even the entire political map of the Middle East. Assad's fate has become an important bargaining chip for many parties to gain benefits.

Dean of the Chinese Arab National Institute of Research at Ningxia University ţдº:

Assad, a former Syrian leader who fled to Russia for a year, has almost no public activity, and his activities are clearly restricted and controlled by Russia. For the new Syrian regime, Assad was a key figure when liquidating the old regime, and he may have seen Assad as a code for restoring relations between the new Syrian regime and Russia.

This is not the first time that Shala has "requested" Putin, from a local Syrian armed forces spokesperson to the leader of the Syrian interim government, after the overthrow of the Assad regime, has been seeking the regime "transformation", the formation of the interim government, trying to introduce funds for the development of the economy, to the neighbouring countries frequent concessions, to meet with the President of the United States Trump, to wipe off the "terrorist organization" coat, dressed appeared at the General Assembly, various measures are illustrating that Shala hopes to get international recognition as soon as possible.

At the moment, Assad is clearly becoming his important hidden danger, and in January 2025, Sala's envoy began negotiations with Russia to propose to keep Russia's military bases in Syria as a condition in exchange for the transfer of Assad to the country for trial, a request that was rejected by Putin in February, when Sala once again put forward the need to extradite Assad while talking to Putin. In April, in an interview, Sarah for the first time publicly emphasized the judicial need to extradite Assad, calling him responsible for "crimes during the civil war".

Senior Media Officer Sassu:

His proposal to extradite Assad may be related to his visit to Moscow, because the new Syrian regime wants to establish a new relationship with Moscow, which involves the exchange of interests. Therefore, when he faces Russia, he is also considering how to achieve the best exchange of interests. He turned Bashar al-Assad's dead card into a live card, which is an excellent political decision. If Assad is promised to be extradited, the trial to be held by Julani (Shala) will become an important ceremony for his consolidation of rule, which is extremely beneficial to him.

On September 27, 2025, a Syrian court issued an absence arrest warrant against Assad, accusing him of suspicion of the ¡°Draya Holocaust¡± in 2011. For Saleh, the extradition of Assad to his country to trial is both a fulfillment of the supporters¡¯ promises and a symbolic act of severing his ties to the old regime. The regime has an urgent need to shape the image of the domestic ¡°justice embodiment¡± through trial of Assad in order to consolidate its rule over Syria.

Senior Media Officer Sassu:

Demanding the arrest of Bashar al-Assad is loyalty to the Western table, showing that he stands with him, because Bashar al-Assad was anti-Western at the time, and now the new regime receives help and the whole country may be westernized, is a guarantee he offers to the West.

In addition, the presence of Assad is viewed by the Shara regime as a potential source of opposition appeal, and despite Assad¡¯s escape to Russia, the Alawites who have always supported the Assad family remain an inescapable force in Syria, which could greatly weaken the threat of the Assad-supported faction in a time of domestic political unrest, if Assad was extradited home for trial.

Dean of the Chinese Arab National Institute of Research at Ningxia University ţдº:

If the Arabs who support Assad in Syria have conflict and turmoil with the new regime, the new regime does not want the exile of Assad to connect with the opposition of the Arabs in Syria.So as an exile former leader, Assad is concerned with both the relationship of the new Syrian regime with Russia and the armed Arab factions of the Syrian anti-government in Syria and the relationship of the new regime.

Sarah's demands have faced real resistance from the beginning, after the fall of the Assad regime, he and his family have long gone to Russia to seek asylum, although public information shows that Putin did not meet him after Assad's exile to Russia, but before, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov has made it clear that Assad in Moscow "very safe", behind this position, both the moral consideration of Russia to former allies, a more realistic strategic calculation, retaining Assad this "card", is equal to mastering an important key to balancing the new regime of Sarah.

Dean of the Chinese Arab National Institute of Research at Ningxia University ţдº:

In Russia-Syria relations, Assad is an unavoidable issue. Saleh proposed that extraditing Assad is his right, but the decision-making power is in Russia, which is or becomes the Russian code. Under normal circumstances, Russia is unlikely to agree to extradition, otherwise it will lose its credibility and face as a great power, the Assad government is an important ally of Russia and the former Soviet Union in the Middle East for decades, and Russia is unlikely to suddenly return after last year's reception.

Some analysts believe that Assad was already used as a code for calling for Russia before the visit to Russia, and if extradition of Assad is difficult, then seeking economic assistance from Russia becomes possible, which also directly determines the bottom line of the survival of the new regime.

Dean of the Chinese Arab National Institute of Research at Ningxia University ţдº:

The relationship between Russia and Syria is mainly determined by bilateral relations such as economy, military and politics. Although the Assad issue is one of them, it may not be the most important and core issue.

Of course, in addition to the economy, Sarah hopes to use Russia's refusal to surrender Assad in exchange for more political capital, and the interaction between the West and the Sarah regime always revolves around geopolitical games, rather than really recognizing his dominance. The interaction between the United States and Sarah is representative. Trump and Sarah met twice in May and September, but the statement of the U.S. State Department shows that the core of the discussions between the two sides is "anti-terrorist efforts, searching for missing Americans and Syrian relations", the lifting of Syria's most urgent sanctions and avoidance of economic aid issues, the attitude of European countries is equally ambiguous, and Italy, France, Finland and other countries also have only stopped at the level of "exchange of views" and no substantial

Dean of the Chinese Arab National Institute of Research at Ningxia University ţдº:

Julian (Sarah) hoped to maintain relations with Russia, although he received strong European and American support but did not fully get what he wanted. The new Syrian regime realized that it relied unilaterally on Europe and the United States and was not a rational choice, it was better to maintain relations with Russia, at least as a keyboard for negotiations with Europe and the United States.

During the talks between Shara and Putin, the issue of the survival of Russia's military bases in Syria became a core issue of more substantive significance than the request for the extradition of Assad. The Tartus Naval Base is Russia's only Mediterranean naval base outside the Black Sea, and the Khmaimim Air Force Base is an important springboard for Russian troops to intervene in Middle East affairs. These two bases constitute the "twin engines" of Russia's geostrategy in the Middle East., its strategic value is self-evident.

Senior Media Officer Sassu:

If the base is lost, Russia will not be able to exert political influence here. Moreover, there is an air base next to the base to provide air superiority cover, and the two are as inseparable as Gemini. If Russia wants to maintain a military presence in the Mediterranean and the Middle East, on the one hand, for the Mediterranean and the Middle East on the other, it cannot give up these two bases, or at least find alternatives.

For Russia, retaining its two bases in Syria is the bottom line of the talks. After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Russia transferred some military resources from the Middle East to Ukraine, which led to a loosening of its influence in Syria. After the fall of the Assad regime, the new regime led by Sala initially took a tough attitude towards the existence of Russian troops, making Russia once faced the risk of losing its strategic fulcrum in the Mediterranean. Therefore, Putin urgently needs to legalize and long-term Russia's military presence in Syria through this meeting.

Senior Media Officer Sassu:

Russia and Syria negotiations are very resilient, the Assad family stay, the Russian base issue can be discussed, then Putin will not easily evacuate. Both sides will choose the most favorable conditions, that is, Russia will reserve the base in Syria for a period of time, after the expiry may give a buffering period, the follow-up to be dealt with according to the international situation. Now if Russia promises to return the base, both domestic "preserved the base", Shara can also announce the "recall of the base" victory.

For Shara, after the fall of the Assad regime at the end of 2024, Israel repeatedly attacked Damascus under the pretext of "protecting the safety of the Druze" and became the biggest security threat to the new Syria regime. Shara realized that Syria's own strength could not resist it, and the existence of Russian troops could just form an effective strategic deterrent.

Dean of the Chinese Arab National Institute of Research at Ningxia University ţдº:

Israel continues to violate Syria's airspace, territorial sovereignty, and the Syria government has not responded because it is unable to do so. At present, we cannot see the new Syria regime's ability to confront and strike Israel in the future. Syria is still far from being stable and strong in its regime and becoming an important player in the Middle East. The most important thing now is to win Russian military assistance.

Although Shara's visit to Russia has reached a preliminary consensus in military cooperation, economic assistance and other fields, the future of Syrian-Russian relations still faces many deep challenges. The core contradiction is still the question of Assad's stay or not. Shara's regime needs to consolidate its legitimacy by liquidating the old regime, while Russia needs to maintain its influence on Syria by sheltering Assad. This contradiction may become a time bomb of Syrian-Russian relations in the future.

Dean of the Chinese Arab National Institute of Research at Ningxia University ţдº:

Without surprise, Assad will remain in Russia and gradually disappear from the historical horizon. The possibility that he will have a significant impact on Syrian internal politics is small, his era has passed, and his influence in Syria is less than before. And Russia has had a good relationship with the Syrian Assad regime for many years and has pledged to protect him, so the possibility that he will end like Gaddafi and Saddam is now seen as small.

In the face of national interests, Assad's fate is no longer worth mentioning. Syria's interim government wants to gain breathing space for the new regime between Western isolation and domestic difficulties, while Russia needs to maintain its strategic fulcrum in the Middle East and achieve the continuation of influence. As a "card" for both sides, Assad cannot go to the poker table, and no one knows where he will go in the future.

Producer: He Jining

Directed by: Zhang Zhang

Edited by: Wang Zheng