[Global Times reporter Ding Yazhi Global Times special correspondent in Germany Aoki] The "shutdown" of the US federal government has entered its third week. According to multiple foreign media reports, the long-term "shutdown" has seriously weakened its ability to release key market reports such as inflation and employment. The "cut-off" of official economic data in the United States not only makes local market observers and policy makers fall into "data blindness", but also makes economies such as Japan and Europe that rely on these data for decision-making face policy judgment difficulties. The global financial market has also lost volatility due to the loss of key "pointers".

"A disturbing void"

According to the US "Political News Network", Forbes News Network, Reuters and other foreign media reports, the federal agencies responsible for issuing indicators of U.S. economic activity, including the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Bureau of Population Census, have suspended the collection and publication of almost all data during the "stop". originally should be released employment reports, consumer price indices, import and export price key economic indicators and other important economic indicators collective "hard production", these are viewed by the global market as the wind indicator data suddenly from the investment "radar" disappeared, leaving only a disturbing void.

¡°Current policy makers and investors have had doubts about the health of the U.S. job market, inflation trends, consumer spending and corporate investment efforts, and the government¡¯s ¡®stop¡¯ has caused the release of key economic data to be interrupted and worsened,¡± Reuters wrote in the report.

The September jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics has reportedly been delayed and the October report is also at risk. If the government's "shutdown" continues until late October, relevant agencies' interviews and surveys on the unemployment rate of tens of thousands of households will also be blocked. Not just the jobs report, but the prolonged "shutdown" will also hurt the accuracy of this month's consumer price index (CPI), the core inflation measure released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has delayed the release of its September consumer price index report to Oct. 24, more than a week later than usual, when the data released may also be a patchwork version.

Omar Sharif, president of Inflation Insights, bluntly stated that if the "shutdown" continues beyond October 23,"October CPI may not be released." As the core reference indicator for the Federal Reserve to formulate interest rate policy, the lack of CPI data will directly weaken the scientific nature of monetary policy decisions.

Officials from many countries worry about US economic data blindness

The impact of the "cut-off" of data in the United States was quickly transmitted to other economies around the world. Reuters reported that officials from many countries said that if the U.S. economic data is "blind" for a long time, it may complicate domestic policy formulation, thus increasing the risk of decision-making mistakes. At present, countries need to keep a close eye on a series of measures taken by the U.S. government to "reshape global trade." Against this background, the risk of decision-making mistakes has become more prominent.

Kazuo Ueda, governor of the Bank of Japan, said at a press conference on October 3: "This (missing data) is a serious problem, and we hope it can be solved as soon as possible." Reuters reported that the "shutdown" of the US government has disrupted the release of official economic data, which may make policy makers in Japan and other countries "confused". For these countries, understanding the economic trend of the world's largest economy is an important basis for judging the trend of their currencies, trade performance and inflation.

An anonymous Japanese policymaker's criticism was even sharper: "This is a joke. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell always says that Fed policy is'data-dependent ', but now there is no data to rely on."

Commissioner for Monetary Policy at the Bank of England, Katharine Mann, said U.S. data disruption has limited direct impact on UK central bank policy discussions. U.S. data controversy has not become a ¡°core topic¡± in central bank policy discussions, but has been included in the ¡°lists of hidden risks.¡±

Germany's Focus weekly that the U.S. government "stops" or brings significant opportunities to Europe.Given the high level of U.S. government bonds, a deep-flowing safe EU bond market could provide opportunities for international investors to decentralize risk.

Private sector data cannot be replaced

In the context of official data, some of the non-official information channels are still operating. Reuters that the Federal Reserve funds are still collecting economic information through its extensive network of connections without being affected by the government's "stop-down". Private data service agencies will also provide alternative data, despite deficiencies, but can still meet basic needs.

Adam Posen, director of the Peterson Institute for International Economics and former policy maker at the Bank of England, believes that the "shutdown" of the government and the current turmoil at the Bureau of Labor Statistics "will intensify external doubts about the ability and reliability of U.S. governance, and this is crucial. Such doubts will ultimately affect the management of foreign exchange reserves and monetary decisions of various countries, and will also aggravate expectations of volatility in the U.S. economy."

At the joint meeting of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) held in Washington this week, although global economic leaders faced multiple issues such as the situation in the Middle East, the "cut-off" of U.S. data remained the focus of discussion. The IMF wrote in its "World Economic Outlook" report released on the 14th:"If pressure comes on the technical institutions responsible for data collection and release, it may also weaken the public and market trust in official statistics, which will significantly increase the difficulty for central banks and policymakers to formulate policies... If political interference undermines data quality, reliability and timeliness, it will further increase the probability of decision-making mistakes."