On October 15, the Kremlin Palace was welcomed by an unexpected visitor, the head of the Syrian "National Transitional Committee" Julian. put a few years ago, the name in the Russian military notice also belongs to the "enemy armed chief", but now sits in the living room of the palace.
Putin personally welcomed him, but from the beginning to the end, the smile on his face seemed somewhat stiff, while Julanny was relaxed and seemed relentless.
The former enemy has suddenly become the target of negotiations, and Putin's expression says everything. This is not a welcome, this is a necessity to sit down and talk.
A reversal of eight years of hostility
Looking back over the past few years, the Syrian battlefield has always been Russia's main battlefield in the Middle East. Russia supports the former Syrian government and puts almost all its regional influence on Assad.
From sending troops to support, to air strikes, to setting up military bases in Syria, Moscow has made a heavy bet.
The armed forces led by Julian at the time have always been the main enemy force in the eyes of Russia, and the Russian military has repeatedly announced the implementation of the strike, and even publicly said that it should be "completely cleared up".
But the situation suddenly changed in 2024. The Syria government fell one after another in various places, Damascus was quickly taken by the opposition, Assad fled the capital, and his whereabouts were unknown.
This regime change caught Russia unprepared. The results of years of operation were about to be overthrown, and Russia's influence in the local area also swayed.
Julani's opposition came to power and established a transitional committee. It took less than a year to transform from being armed on the hill to an "official representative."
Against this background, Julani appeared in the Kremlin not to surrender, but to negotiate conditions.
Although Putin still controls two major military bases in Syria, this meeting shows that he is no longer able to unilaterally decide the future of Syria as in the past.
From "controller" to "coordinator", Russia's role is being rewritten.
Anxiety behind a smile.
Russia's core interests in Syria are not just political support. More importantly, the two bases, one on the sea and the other inland, are Russia's rare overseas military fulcrum.
Once lost, deployments to the entire Middle East and even Africa will suffer.
Although Julani did not directly mention withdrawing troops during his visit to Russia, he clearly expressed a position. If the Russian army wants to continue to station in the future, it must respect the sovereignty of the new government and inform the actions in advance.
The subtext is very clear. The agreements signed with Assad's government in the past no longer work. Russia can no longer fight whenever it says, and stay whenever it says, as before.
This is a big blow to Putin. In the past, he almost had a "uncompromising" position in Syria, but now he has to say hello before acting.
More difficult is that Julani also brings an old problem, Assad's disposal.
If the new regime wants to completely cut off the roots of the old forces, Assad will definitely be unable to get around it. Although extradition was not publicly mentioned in this meeting, this meaning is already obvious.
For Julani, Assad is a symbol of the past and a hurdle in consolidating the legitimacy of the new regime.
And for Putin, Assad, the representative of his diplomatic betting in the past few years, sudden renunciation would not only be seen as a “mortem ass” but would also affect Russia’s allies in other regions.
This puts Putin in trouble, unrelenting, and may make the new government more and more impatient with Russia’s military presence; being reluctant is equivalent to publicly acknowledging that Russia has chosen the wrong side before, and may also harm its credibility in other countries.
This is not a simple diplomatic question, but a direct test of Russia’s Middle Eastern strategy.
The New Identity of Julian
During this visit, Julian's gesture was very stable, he had no winner's tone, and he did not show hostility to Russia.
He said he was willing to continue to cooperate with Russia and respect its interest arrangements in Syria, but also made specific demands.
This soft and hard combination indicates that he is no longer the armed head where only war can be fought, but begins to transform into a politician who understands international rules.
In recent years, Julian’s image has not been good in the outside world, and he has been classified as a member of extremist organizations in several Western countries and has a more radical style of conduct.
But now he has visited the Middle East neighbors first, and then made his debut in Russia, obviously promoting a "normalization" route.
He wants the outside world to accept the reality that Syria has changed, the new regime needs to be recognized, and he himself is no longer the role that will only fight armed struggles.
From diplomatic language to negotiation methods, Jurani showed sufficient maturity. He did not forcefully force Russia to make concessions, but slowly squeezed out space in a way of "you have your difficulties, and I have my plans."
He knew that Russia could not easily blame him now, and he knew what the opponent was most concerned about, that he had not much resources in his hand, but he had something Russia wanted to keep, those two bases, that’s his biggest bottom line at the moment.
Change of attitude, shift of pattern
The focus of the conversation was not on who said what, but on how the attitudes of both sides changed.
Putin did not make a strong statement, nor did he show the confident posture he used to be; Julani showed stability from beginning to end, without rushing or impetuous.
This atmosphere has actually explained the nature of the current situation. Russia no longer has the same power that it used to say in Syria, and the new regime in Syria, although not strong enough, has been able to sit down and negotiate.
More profoundly, the talks reflected Russia’s overall situation in the Middle East. With the prolongation of the war in Ukraine and the continued fermentation of economic sanctions, Russia’s strategic focus in the world has been forced to disperse.
Syria, which was originally used to demonstrate global influence, has now become a burden that must be handled with caution. The emergence of Julani is not a victory for Russia, but a new reality that he has to face.
For Julani, this visit to Russia is a kind of "identity confirmation". When he walked into the Kremlin, he no longer represented a mountain armed force, but a new power core in Syria.
Instead of completely turning to Russia or completely cutting off from the West, he tried to find a balance between various forces. This strategy seemed realistic and sophisticated.
Putin's face of "smiling but not smiling" actually hides too many words.
He is unwilling and cannot show concessions in front of the camera, but the reality is already in front of him. Julani is not here to ask for cooperation, but to set the direction.
Syria has changed people, and Russia must readjust its position and strategy.
This meeting was a turning point in Russia's influence in the Middle East. It was also the official appearance of Jurani from a local armed leader to an international political player. Putin is still sitting at the other end of the table, but he is no longer able to make decisions as he did in the past.
reference
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