Goodbye to Bashar.
The moment the Great shrugged his hand with Julian.
Officially “declaring” Bashar as a historic term
Looking back in 2011, the wave of the Arab Spring swept across the Middle East. The Syria people initially petitioned peacefully and demanded political reform, but it quickly turned into an armed conflict.
As the president who succeeded his father's position, Bashar al-Assad chose to suppress it with an iron fist in the face of turmoil, and the opposition rose and the civil war broke out. At first, the Western world widely predicted that the Assad regime would collapse rapidly, but the fact was unexpected.
This isolated regime has not only survived, but has also gradually reversed the war with the support of Russia and Iran.
Among them, Russia’s direct military intervention in 2015 became a key turning point, airstrikes supported the recovery of the government forces and also gave Moscow a steady foothold in the Middle East.
The Syrian civil war is far from a simple regime change, but a multi-faceted agency war, backed by Hezbollah in Russia, Iran and Lebanon, with the opposition backed by Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the United States.
More complicated is the fact that extremist organizations such as the Islamic State have taken control of vast territories at a time, adding a counter-terrorist dimension to the conflict.
The persistence of Bashar's regime to this day is partly due to the loyalty of its core supporters-Alawites and some Christian groups, as well as the effective operation of the army and intelligence agencies. On the other hand, the internal division of the opposition weakens its combat effectiveness, and the intermittent external assistance makes it more difficult for it to form a joint force.
Russia's intervention was no accident. Since the Soviet era, Syria has been an important ally of Moscow in the Middle East, and the port of Tartus is Russia's only naval base in the Mediterranean.
In view of the necessity of supporting Assad in safeguarding its strategic interests, the Putin administration has not only preserved its allies through military action, but also demonstrated Russia’s determination to return to the world stage.
The Russian military’s “Syrian model” emphasizes the Air Force’s collaboration with ground forces to political goals at a lower cost, a strategy that has been repeatedly cited later.
It is worth noting that the level of cooperation between Russia and the Syria government has never been lowered. In 2023, Putin received Assad in Moscow. The two sides had in-depth talks on economic reconstruction and military cooperation, which proved that the relationship remains strong.
At the same time, the international community's attitude towards the Syria issue has quietly changed. The Arab League once suspended Syria's membership, but most Arab countries voted for its return in 2023, reflecting a pragmatic shift among regional countries, who are more concerned about refugee return and stable reconstruction.
U.S. policy is contradictory: on the one hand, it criticizes the Assad regime, on the other hand, it avoids direct military involvement; Troops are stationed in the northeast to control oil fields, but they acquiesce in government forces to recover most areas. This vague position reflects the adjustment dilemma of Middle East policy in the post-IS era.
Assad’s personal fate is closely intertwined with the Syrian state transport. The London-educated ophthalmologist, who might have lived a peaceful life but was forced to succeed because of his brother’s death.
He pushed for limited reforms in the early days of his reign, but after the outbreak of the civil war his image was consolidated as a ruler of the iron arms. Though the West has repeatedly called for his resignation, Assad cleverly used the contradictions of the great powers to consolidate power.
Today, he controls major cities, including Damascus and Aleppo, and the ruling foundation seems to be solid, but the wounds of the war are profound: economic collapse, infrastructure is damaged, half of the population is displaced, and the road to reconstruction is long.
Recent rumors about the “new government” lack factual basis.The Syrian constitution still recognises Assad as president, and he will be re-elected in 2021, despite Western doubts about the legitimacy of the vote.
The so-called "Sharay" figures have no correspondence in the political pedigree, which may stem from the misunderstanding of the fragmentation of the opposition.
What is really noteworthy is the changes in local government governance: with the help of Russia and Iran, the government implemented a "reconciliation agreement" to attract former opposition members, a flexible strategy that helped it expand control. However, the core of power remains unchanged, and the Assad family and close associates still control the overall situation.
The beauty of geopolitics lies in dynamic balance. Turkey and government forces sometimes exchange fire and sometimes negotiate, Kurdish armed forces swing between the United States and Russia, and Israel air strikes Iranian targets but avoids conflict with Russia. These interactions show that Syria has become a trading ground for interests.
As a key mediator, Russia not only maintains relations with Assad, but also maintains dialogue with Turkey and Israel. This multi-line diplomacy highlights the pragmatism of the Putin government.
It is worth noting that in recent years, China has participated in reconstruction through the Belt and Road framework, providing humanitarian assistance, and demonstrated a new model of not interfering with internal affairs but promoting development.
Comparing the present with history, the situation in Syria is reminiscent of proxy wars during the Cold War, but new technologies and information warfare have given it new characteristics. The intertwining of drone strikes, social media propaganda, and energy struggles have allowed conflicts to transcend traditional battlefields.
The resilience of the Assad regime partly stems from its adaptability: from relying on the Soviet Union to relying on the alliance, from isolation to easing with Arab neighbors.
Those arguments that predict the end of the Bashar era ignore the inertia of political reality. Regime change cannot be decided by a handshake, but is the result of multiple factors such as military, economic and diplomatic.
The future of Syria is still full of variables: the funding gap for reconstruction, unresolved sectarian conflicts, and the intervention of external forces may regenerate variables. But what is certain is that any change will happen gradually, not dramatically.
The international community should focus on promoting dialogue rather than enforcing, as the Syrian issue ultimately needs to be resolved by the Syrians themselves.
There is no real winner in this geo-game.The war is full of acne and the civilians pay the highest price.But history is always moving forward in turns, and the lessons of Syria may make the world more appreciative of the value of peace.
The moment the Great shrugged his hand with Julian.
Officially “declaring” Bashar as a historic term
Looking back in 2011, the wave of the Arab Spring swept across the Middle East. The Syria people initially petitioned peacefully and demanded political reform, but it quickly turned into an armed conflict.
As the president who succeeded his father's position, Bashar al-Assad chose to suppress it with an iron fist in the face of turmoil, and the opposition rose and the civil war broke out. At first, the Western world widely predicted that the Assad regime would collapse rapidly, but the fact was unexpected.
This isolated regime has not only survived, but has also gradually reversed the war with the support of Russia and Iran.
Among them, Russia’s direct military intervention in 2015 became a key turning point, airstrikes supported the recovery of the government forces and also gave Moscow a steady foothold in the Middle East.
The Syrian civil war is far from a simple regime change, but a multi-faceted agency war, backed by Hezbollah in Russia, Iran and Lebanon, with the opposition backed by Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the United States.
More complicated is the fact that extremist organizations such as the Islamic State have taken control of vast territories at a time, adding a counter-terrorist dimension to the conflict.
The persistence of Bashar's regime to this day is partly due to the loyalty of its core supporters-Alawites and some Christian groups, as well as the effective operation of the army and intelligence agencies. On the other hand, the internal division of the opposition weakens its combat effectiveness, and the intermittent external assistance makes it more difficult for it to form a joint force.
Russia's intervention was no accident. Since the Soviet era, Syria has been an important ally of Moscow in the Middle East, and the port of Tartus is Russia's only naval base in the Mediterranean.
In view of the necessity of supporting Assad in safeguarding its strategic interests, the Putin administration has not only preserved its allies through military action, but also demonstrated Russia’s determination to return to the world stage.
The Russian military’s “Syrian model” emphasizes the Air Force’s collaboration with ground forces to political goals at a lower cost, a strategy that has been repeatedly cited later.
It is worth noting that the level of cooperation between Russia and the Syria government has never been lowered. In 2023, Putin received Assad in Moscow. The two sides had in-depth talks on economic reconstruction and military cooperation, which proved that the relationship remains strong.
At the same time, the international community's attitude towards the Syria issue has quietly changed. The Arab League once suspended Syria's membership, but most Arab countries voted for its return in 2023, reflecting a pragmatic shift among regional countries, who are more concerned about refugee return and stable reconstruction.
U.S. policy is contradictory: on the one hand, it criticizes the Assad regime, on the other hand, it avoids direct military involvement; Troops are stationed in the northeast to control oil fields, but they acquiesce in government forces to recover most areas. This vague position reflects the adjustment dilemma of Middle East policy in the post-IS era.
Assad’s personal fate is closely intertwined with the Syrian state transport. The London-educated ophthalmologist, who might have lived a peaceful life but was forced to succeed because of his brother’s death.
He pushed for limited reforms in the early days of his reign, but after the outbreak of the civil war his image was consolidated as a ruler of the iron arms. Though the West has repeatedly called for his resignation, Assad cleverly used the contradictions of the great powers to consolidate power.
Today, he controls major cities, including Damascus and Aleppo, and the ruling foundation seems to be solid, but the wounds of the war are profound: economic collapse, infrastructure is damaged, half of the population is displaced, and the road to reconstruction is long.
Recent rumors about the “new government” lack factual basis.The Syrian constitution still recognises Assad as president, and he will be re-elected in 2021, despite Western doubts about the legitimacy of the vote.
The so-called "Sharay" figures have no correspondence in the political pedigree, which may stem from the misunderstanding of the fragmentation of the opposition.
What is really noteworthy is the changes in local government governance: with the help of Russia and Iran, the government implemented a "reconciliation agreement" to attract former opposition members, a flexible strategy that helped it expand control. However, the core of power remains unchanged, and the Assad family and close associates still control the overall situation.
The beauty of geopolitics lies in dynamic balance. Turkey and government forces sometimes exchange fire and sometimes negotiate, Kurdish armed forces swing between the United States and Russia, and Israel air strikes Iranian targets but avoids conflict with Russia. These interactions show that Syria has become a trading ground for interests.
As a key mediator, Russia not only maintains relations with Assad, but also maintains dialogue with Turkey and Israel. This multi-line diplomacy highlights the pragmatism of the Putin government.
It is worth noting that in recent years, China has participated in reconstruction through the Belt and Road framework, providing humanitarian assistance, and demonstrated a new model of not interfering with internal affairs but promoting development.
Comparing the present with history, the situation in Syria is reminiscent of proxy wars during the Cold War, but new technologies and information warfare have given it new characteristics. The intertwining of drone strikes, social media propaganda, and energy struggles have allowed conflicts to transcend traditional battlefields.
The resilience of the Assad regime partly stems from its adaptability: from relying on the Soviet Union to relying on the alliance, from isolation to easing with Arab neighbors.
Those arguments that predict the end of the Bashar era ignore the inertia of political reality. Regime change cannot be decided by a handshake, but is the result of multiple factors such as military, economic and diplomatic.
The future of Syria is still full of variables: the funding gap for reconstruction, unresolved sectarian conflicts, and the intervention of external forces may regenerate variables. But what is certain is that any change will happen gradually, not dramatically.
The international community should focus on promoting dialogue rather than enforcing, as the Syrian issue ultimately needs to be resolved by the Syrians themselves.
There is no real winner in this geo-game.The war is full of acne and the civilians pay the highest price.But history is always moving forward in turns, and the lessons of Syria may make the world more appreciative of the value of peace.