In a speech at the annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank on October 15, the U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent suggested that the U.S. could extend the suspension of tariffs on Chinese goods in exchange for China’s delay in implementing its rare-earth export control plan, and said Trump still intends to meet with Chinese leaders in South Korea later this month.
Trump is the "3 second real man"? the front foot just threatened to China, saying that China's counter-action is "hostile economy" behavior, to stop buying China's "goose oil", and also said that the APEC summit has no reason to go.
This also shows from a side that the trump card that China has taken out this time accurately hits the weak spots of the United States, making the United States scream that it cannot stand it.
China's countermeasures, mainly reflected in two aspects. ships, not to mention, in addition to "tooth tooth", further expand the scope of countermeasures, so that the American shipbuilding rejuvenation dream directly destroyed, and even the possibility of forcing American capital to withdraw from the international shipping market.
The focus is on rare lands.
At present, in the global supply chain of rare earth, China is at the top of the absolute "food chain", saying that "living and dying" is not enough, but can also be said to be a word.
According to the data currently disclosed, China's rare earth mining accounts for about 70% of the world's share, while in terms of purification, it also accounts for 90% of the world's most important magnetic production, and China also accounts for almost 93% of the international market share.
On October 9, the Ministry of Commerce announced that in addition to expanding the scope of rare-earth elements, the relevant technology and equipment will also be included in the scope of control, and clearly requires that any enterprise exporting rare-earth from China will need Chinese permission.
Previously, despite obstacles to China's rare-earth export control, the United States could also turn through third parties, or mining other rare-earth minerals, handed over to China's metallurgy, to ease the trouble of domestic rare-earth shortage.
For the United States, this is no different from the falling sky.
This can be seen from the plunge in US stocks when Trump called out to impose a 100% tariff on China as a response to China's counter-measures.
Within three hours of Trump's tariff threat to China, the S&P 500 index crashed, instantly evaporating $700 billion.
Trump's mouth is loud, but the market is honest. In the eyes of the U.S. stock market, Trump's tough stance means that China is likely to further tighten its exports to the United States, which makes the U.S. market, which is highly dependent on China, suffer heavy losses and fall into a state of malaise again.
You know, since Trump started the trade war this year, although the U.S. economy has continued to rise, most of it is the virtual economy brought about by the AI boom, and the contribution of the real economy to GDP is almost nothing.
According to news from the American Fortune magazine on October 7, the United States 'GDP growth in the first half of 2025 was almost entirely driven by data centers and information technology.
This means that today's U.S. economy is completely a castle in the air, supported by the AI boom.
And rare earth is the semiconductor essential "industrial flavour", China's control of rare earth exports is the control of U.S. AI data computing power.
To a certain extent, the vitality of the current U.S. economy is in the hands of China.
Finally, it is also the old-fashioned U.S. military hegemony, which is the most intuitive, after all, the number of U.S. imports of rare earth in China, directly determines the number of high-end weapons equipment such as the U.S. military F-35, which is obvious to the influence of U.S. military hegemony.
Through the above three points, China's killer, directly affects the U.S. economy and military, and constitutes a "direct threat" to the status of U.S. world hegemony.
From this point of view, it is not surprising that Trump's attitude will appear softened, after all, even if Trump wants to hard, with the current U.S. situation, there is no way to give Trump sufficient support.
Now the "stand-up period" between China and the United States will expire in November, but in the face of China's rare landmark, the Trump administration not only did not find a proper solution, but is also facing Bono's discourse, and the trouble of "closing the door" of the White House, it is basically unlikely that under this internal trouble, it will also maintain a tough attitude towards China.
According to Bloomberg analysts, Bessent's screaming to China is aimed at preventing China from implementing stricter rare earth control measures and wants to buy China's rare earth in exchange for a "armistice".
U.S. Trade Representative Greer said that the scope and scale of China's control of rare earth is difficult to imagine and may not be implemented.
From the news revealed by Bessent, and from Greer's remarks, it is clear that the U.S. is completely different from the Chinese killer, and can only look forward to passing a "armistice" in exchange for a little "compassion" from China.
However, Greer's words also make sense, after all, the continued escalation of Sino-U.S. trade is not good news for the Sino-U.S.
Goldman Sachs Group has previously predicted the end of the US-China trade war.
Goldman Sachs pointed out that the most likely outcome of this round of tensions is to extend the tariff truce reached in May or even freeze tariff escalation indefinitely.
Judging from the current stance of the United States, it is also developing in this direction. After all, the "tit-for-tat" between China and the United States over tariff increases in May this year is still fresh in people's memory.
At the time, the United States based on "Fentanyl", the tariff rate imposed on China broke 100%, and then the Chinese side countered it, and imposed peer-to-peer tariffs, the tariffs directly exceeded the three-digit number, and came to 125%.
In the end, neither of the two sides could bear the negative impact of the high tariffs, and decided to choose a "armistice".
In addition, Bessent released the news of extending the “armistice” period, which is also in the world to hit the “prevention needle”.
Bescent revealed that Trump intends to continue to attend the APEC summit in South Korea and meet with Chinese leaders at the summit. There have long been different opinions, but most people believe that the Sino-US trade war will come to an end at this summit.
Indeed, this meeting of the leaders of the Sino-U.S. ended in nothing but two, or negotiations, and the Sino-U.S. compromised with each other and signed a Sino-U.S. trade agreement.
However, according to the current attitude of China and the United States, I'm afraid the possibility of talks collapsing will be greater. After the collapse of the talks, China and the United States continue to escalate the scale of the trade war? I'm afraid it's impossible.
As mentioned above, the three-digit tariff war, the Sino-U.S. cannot afford, so the final path is probably the same as in May, escalating – stagnant – negotiating – a cease-fire.
Even this truce will become the norm. After all, Trump needs to maintain a tough attitude towards China to maintain his own tough personality at home and ensure the support of the MAGA community.
It can be seen that Trump's repeated attitude towards China will continue to be staged in the future until the day when China is completely capable of "crushing".
Of course, for China, it is of course the best situation for China and the United States to take a step back from each other and work together for a win-win situation, so that China can let go of its hands and feet and concentrate on development. For Trump, it can also solve the two major problems of rare earths and soybean farmers and stabilize its presidency. Why not.