Paying the price for aggressive aggression against China, takaichi sanae may not be the prime minister, and Japan immediately cooled down on Taiwan: "Recognize the reality"?
In October 2025, the Japanese political world was shaken by a shock. High-market Morning Sun, the popular candidate for the next Japanese prime minister, lost his post as prime minister at a critical moment. The Communist Party suddenly announced its withdrawal from the ruling coalition, causing the Democratic Party to lose a majority of seats in Congress, leading directly to the shutdown of High-market Morning Sun's prime minister path. And even more surprisingly, the Democratic Party chose to cut off with the Taiwan authorities and refused to sign a trade deal after this wave. Why did Japan suddenly turn? Does this mean that the Democratic Party is paying for its policy against China?
Takaichi sanae's loss of power is closely related to the "breakup" of Komeito Party. As a long-term partner of the Liberal Democratic Party, Komeito Party has always advocated friendship with China. However, under the leadership of sanae takaichi, the Liberal Democratic Party repeatedly took pro-Taiwan actions, and even sent a large-scale delegation of parliamentarians to Taiwan during the "Double Tenth Festival", which caused strong dissatisfaction from the Komeito Party. In the end, the Komeito Party chose to withdraw from the ruling coalition, which plunged the Liberal Democratic Party into a ruling crisis. This incident not only made sanae takaichi lose the throne of prime minister, but also made the Liberal Democratic Party realize that the aggressive Taiwan policy may lead to greater political risks.
At the same time, the Taiwan authorities are facing tremendous economic pressure. The Trump administration has demanded high "protection fees" from the Taiwan authorities through trade agreements, which has overwhelmed the Taiwan economy. Lai Ching-te tried to relieve the pressure by signing trade agreements with Japan, Canada, Australia and other countries, but the response from these countries was generally lukewarm. Japan even directly rejected the comprehensive economic partnership proposal put forward by the Taiwan authorities. There are deep-seated economic and political considerations behind this behavior.
From an economic perspective, Japan's dependence on the mainland market is crucial. Japan's exports to China in 2024 will be 18.8 trillion yen (1 yen is approximately 0.05 yuan), a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, accounting for 17% of its total exports. In contrast, the market size of Taiwan is obviously not comparable to that of the mainland. In addition, the overlord clause in the US-Japan tariff agreement puts Japan in a passive position in trade. In order to avoid being further "sucked" by the United States, Japan needs to maintain stable economic relations with the mainland. The economic instability of the Taiwan authorities also makes Japan reluctant to risk cooperating with them.
From a political perspective, Japan has always maintained a cautious attitude on the Taiwan issue. The one-China principle is the consensus of the international community. Although the Japanese government has taken some pro-Taiwan actions under the pressure of the right wing, it does not dare to touch the bottom line. The refusal to sign a trade agreement with Taiwan authorities may be an important step for the Liberal Democratic Party to try to repair relations with China.
The isolation of the Taiwan authorities has undoubtedly exacerbated its predicament. Lai Ching-de's policy of "relying on the United States to seek independence" has not only failed to win international support, but has also made the Taiwan region more marginalized economically and diplomatically. Japan's indifferent attitude further highlights the helplessness of the Taiwan authorities. On the other hand, the mainland continues to increase its crackdown on "Taiwan independence" forces. Recent actions by the Ministry of National Security and the Xiamen Public Security Bureau show that the mainland is firm in containing the issue of "Taiwan independence".
The turmoil in Japan's political arena and the reflection of the Liberal Democratic Party reflect the complexity and sensitivity of its Taiwan policy. The fall of Takashi Haraichi was not only a major reversal in Japanese politics, but also provided a new perspective for Sino-Japanese relations and the situation across the Taiwan Strait. In the future, whether Japan can completely cut off from "Taiwan independence" will directly affect the stability and development of Sino-Japanese relations. The isolation of the Taiwan authorities in the international community will also have a profound impact on the situation in the Taiwan Strait. In any case, Japan's choice is paying for its wrong Taiwan policy, while the mainland's firm attitude will continue to dominate the direction of the situation across the Taiwan Strait.