Foreign media on October 13 that the first phase of the Gaza ceasefire agreement came into force last weekend.Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas)Security forces clashed on the street with a Palestinian tribal militant group in Gaza City, killing many people.

In the face of two years of Israeli strikes, Hamas¡¯s armed forces based in Gaza have been severely damaged, but are clearly not completely destroyed.

The number of people is a mystery

Prior to a new round of conflict in Pakistan in October 2023, it was estimated that Hamas had between 2.5,000 and 30,000 fighters.

Last month, Israel called Gaza City the ¡°last base¡± of Hamas, with an estimated 3,000 fighters remaining.

Israeli military sources said that in the past two years, they killed 17,000 to 23,000 Hamas members, but never produced conclusive evidence.

A report from the U.S. Conflict Monitoring Agency's "Armed Conflict Places and Incident Data" shows that from October 2023 to October 2024, the Israeli army's war report recorded approximately 8500 deaths among Hamas militants.

An Israeli classified data also shows that as of May 2025, Hamas or its ally Islamic Jihad group has confirmed about 8,900 fighters killed or potentially killed.

This means that more than 80 percent of the more than 660,000 victims in Gaza were civilians.

Data from the above-mentioned monitoring agency also showed that Hamas may have absorbed "fresh blood" in the past two years. U.S. intelligence officials estimate that there may be 10,000 to 15,000 new recruits.

European scholars say some signs, including on social media, show an increasing number of untrained young Palestinians joining Hamas¡¯s military branch, the ¡°Kassan Brigade,¡± and conducting guerrilla operations.

Although the numbers are a mystery, what is certain is that Hamas's senior leadership has been virtually emptied. The military commission before October 7, 2023 currently has only one senior commander left.

Tactical shift

Over the past two years, Hamas's style of play has changed significantly: it has become more decentralized and relies more on guerrilla warfare,"hit and run" attacks, and explosive ambushes, rather than head-on combat.

The number of cross-border rocket attacks by Hamas on Israel has dropped significantly. According to Israeli officials, most of its heavy weapons have been destroyed.

However, even in areas that the Israeli military claims have been "cleared", small-scale Hamas militants still appear from time to time. Some tunnel networks used to raid and hide hostages are still operating.

In addition to Gaza, Hamas activity has increased in the West Bank, which has been dormant for the past 15 years.

governance crisis

Hamas¡¯s control over Gaza has been eroded over the past two years.

Since 2007, Hamas has been responsible not only for military affairs, but also for the civil affairs of hospitals, police and environmental protection.

Observers believe that Hamas¡¯s ¡°civil system¡± has undergone some adjustments, such as the formation of a new uniform police force, the establishment of a new cash pay system.

However, Hamas¡¯ reserve emergency funding is almost exhausted.The Israeli military continues to strike against individuals and institutions associated with Hamas¡¯ governance with the intention of weakening its civilian control.

According to the International Crisis Organization, Hamas officials have been increasingly absent from public affairs since the outbreak of the war, both due to the chaos of the situation and due to fears that Israeli settlements will be cleared.

Officials who have served in Gaza's security forces say Hamas has almost lost control of Gaza and that the security vacuum is being filled by criminal gangs and family forces.

Meanwhile, Israel isly supporting anti-Hamas groups, further escalating internal competition.

cannot be eliminated

Observers generally believe that in the past two years, despite a sharp decline in Hamas¡¯ power, it is almost impossible for Israel to its goal of completely destroying it.

On the one hand, Hamas is not only an armed force, but also an ideology that cannot be completely destroyed.

Hamas, on the other hand, has always believed that ¡°survival itself is victory¡± and has put survival above direct confrontation.

(Editor's email: ylq@jfdaily.com)