One wave is unsettled, another wave rises again.
As the peace process in Russia and Ukraine is in a standstill, the conflict on the battlefield continues to escalate.
Trump's ambiguous attitude on whether to provide "Tomahawk" missiles to Ukraine makes Ukraine and Europe unpredictable. Recently, Russia has taken a tougher and dangerous boycott against the possible supply of "tomahawk" by the United States to Ukraine, indicating that if the United States supplies bombs, Russia will violently react. Medvedev, Vice Chairman of the Russian Federal Security Council, said that the "Tomahawk" can be equipped with a nuclear-active dual-use warhead and is difficult to distinguish from the launcher. Russia will regard its launch as a U.S. nuclear strike against Russia and will use nuclear weapons in response.
However, it is justified to speculate how the situation in Russia and Ukraine will develop, and how the United States will intervene, Three major events have occurred in the United States.
First thing, 51:44!The latest U.S. voting results come out, and the “shutdown” crisis continues to escalate.
On October 15, local time, The U.S. Senate once again failed to move forward with the Republican provisional appropriations bill by a vote of 51-44. It is reported that 60 votes are needed to advance the bill, which will provide funding for the government until the end of November.The US government’s “closure” crisis will continue.
It is reported that this is the 9th round of voting on the provisional appropriations bill in the U.S. Senate. During this period, the Democratic and Republican parties each introduced proposals but failed to pass them. The Democrats insisted that the bill should include medical insurance clauses, while the Republicans demanded that the Democrats first "light the green light". both parties accused the other party of "stopping the government" and not willing to compromise.Senate Republican leader Thun said Democratic demands were “high,” or hoped the government would “stop” for weeks to come. House Republican Speaker Johnson said the government “stop” or set the longest record in U.S. history.
It is worth noting that among the current 100 seats in the U.S. Senate, 53 are Republicans, 45 are Democrats, and 2 are independents. To pass the Republican appropriation bill, at least seven Democratic lawmakers need the support of it. However, in the latest vote, two Republicans did not vote in favor, and no Democratic Party agreed, which shows that there is also dissatisfaction within the Republican Party. It is extremely difficult for all parties to gather 60 votes to pass the bill.
Then the problem comes. The U.S. government has been "shut down" for more than half a month, but it has actually caused the government to shut down for more than ten days, and there is even the possibility of continuing to shut down? There is only one core answer to this question, and that is party strife in the United States.
This time the U.S. government shut down, directly due to the two parties in the health insurance expenditure related legislation big differences. The Democratic party wanted to "bind" the federal subsidy extension of the "parity price medical law" with the Republican provisional allocation law voting, the two parties did not concession to the negotiation impasse, the allocation is not available, the government shutdown. The bill is the result of Obama's medical reform, when the Congress passed in 2010 buried the "hidden danger" for the government's large-scale shutdown.
Beyond that, Trump showed a tough stance in this crisis. He even issued a tough warning, claiming that he would use the government's "shutdown" to cut government employees and cut spending that he regarded as "Democratic projects."At a government meeting last week, he stated without hesitation: These projects are not expected among Republicans at all.Trump's move, undoubtedly in the current tense situation again and again spilled oil, the Democratic side will make reasonable efforts, step-by-step.
However, The government's "stop-down" bitter fruit has begun to really appear, and the American people have become the real losers in the case of the two parties' continued game.
The US "Wall Street Journal" reported that the government's "shutdown" has caused many troubles: the federal government's loans to small businesses have stalled; most employees of the US Securities and Exchange Commission have taken unpaid leave, making it difficult for the company to issue securities; air traffic controllers, etc. are unpaid, and airport delays are aggravated, there are many absences from other unpaid positions, and work bottlenecks may arise in open departments.
Representative Dave Ming called the day tight, and the Oxford Institute of Economics Nancy said the long-term "stop" or hit U.S. consumer spending.
The U.S. Pentagon confirmed: In order to ensure the timely payment of military pay, about $8 billion in scientific research funds have been temporarily spent.The essence of this practice is an expedient measure of "dismantling the east and making up for the west". If the U.S. government's "shutdown" crisis continues, the payment of military pay will be a problem, and Trump will have nowhere to "tear down the wall" for emergency. The failure to pay U.S. military pay on time may lead to military instability and social unrest, which Trump wants to avoid. The issue of military pay has become a means for the Democratic Party to put pressure on the Trump administration. How to deal with the crisis and lift the government's "shutdown" dilemma is a major challenge for Trump.
However, at a time of escalating domestic crisis in the United States, Trump was still busy launching military operations abroad.
Second, three US bombers circled over Venezuela for three hours, signaling an escalation of the conflict.
While Trump has repeatedly claimed he should win the Nobel Peace Prize and has declared he has ended at least seven conflicts, he has continued to exert military pressure on Venezuela under the pretext of a war on drugs.On 15th, Trump publicly announced that under his authority, according to relevant intelligence, the U.S. military has taken military action in international waters near Venezuela to strike a ship allegedly carrying “prohibited goods.” The ship was eventually sunk, killing six people on board.
The U.S. military has publicly expressed its intention to expand the scale and scope of military operations. When the regional situation was extremely tense, the US military sent three bombers to wander in the airspace around Venezuela for a long time (3 hours). According to US media reports, on October 15, local time, three B-52H strategic bombers of the US Air Force circled near the coast of Venezuela for several hours. This move was obviously a deterrent military operation against Venezuela, not ordinary training.
It is reported that three U.S. military B-52H bombers with call signs BUNNY01, BUNNY02 and BUNNY03 left Barksdale Air Force Base in Louisiana on the early morning of the 15th and flew to what Venezuela calls the Mectia Flight Information Region (FIR) airspace and began to hover there.。Data showed that the B-52H bombers circled there for about two hours before leaving. The US bomber flew openly so close to Caracas, apparently trying to send a deterrent signal to Venezuela. Trump has always wanted to subvert the Maduro regime and has used various means to interfere, but has never succeeded. Trump wants to use this war on drugs to subvert the Maduro regime directly through military pressure. Judging from the recent actions of the United States, it is indeed creating an atmosphere of military conflict.
According to reliable information, In the early morning of the 15th local time, three U.S. military B-52H strategic bombers with call sign BUNNY01-03 took off from the Louisiana Air Force Base, entered what Venezuela calls the Metia Flight Information Region, circled for about two hours, and left.According to the analysis, this move is an open deterrence carried out by the US military near Caracas, aiming at putting pressure on the Venezuelan government. Trump had tried many times to overthrow Maduro's regime when he was in power, but none of them succeeded. This time, the U.S. bomber was unusually close to Venezuela's airspace, which was regarded as a new trend of pressure in the name of "anti-drug action", and a series of recent military deployments by the U.S. showed that it was deliberately creating regional tensions.
It's not over yet. After sinking the ship, the U.S. military immediately launched a live-fire exercise in the Caribbean Sea. This move was intended to cooperate with the Trump administration's action to "combat criminal groups" and demonstrate that although its military activities in Latin America have just started, they already have a strong deterrent meaning, indicating that The future situation in Latin America may fall into turmoil again.
At the same time, while the US military fought undeclared war, new changes have quietly taken place in US-Russia relations.
Third thing, the situation has changed again?Russia: Putin's letter to Trump
On the 15th, Russia handed over to the United States a batch of documents relating to the assassination of former President Kennedy and a letter from Putin to Trump.
Previously, at the request of Luna, a member of the U.S. House of Representatives, Russian Ambassador to the United States Darchiyev met with her and delivered letters and documents to her. Earlier in the day, Luna "announced" that she would receive 350 pages of documents, and then she confirmed that she had received the documents, He also expressed his gratitude to Russia, saying that Russia's move has "great historical significance".
Luna revealed that in the 1990s, the United States made a request to obtain relevant documents and materials, but it was rejected. This is the first time that the United States has had the opportunity to access these materials. Previously, Trump made a promise to thoroughly investigate the Kennedy assassination. On January 23rd this year, he formally signed an executive order calling for the declassification of related files.In March, the National Archives and Records Administration of the United States released the relevant archives.
As for Putin's letter to Trump, Russia did not disclose the contents of the letter. The exchange of letters between the presidents of the United States and Russia may bring some easing effect to the current tense US-Russia relations.
Overall, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has not yet been completely resolved, and the direction of relations between the United States and Russia is still the core factor affecting the future development of the situation between Russia and Ukraine. Next, we might as well wait and see what direction the situation will evolve.