The “Russian-Arab Summit” scheduled for October 2025 in Moscow was delayed due to the impasse in the Gaza ceasefire negotiations, and most Arab countries cancelled the trip due to security instability.
It was a highly unusual diplomatic move. A figure who was facing the Russian army on the battlefield, after the Russian-hosted summit was completely shut down, chose to go alone and take the initiative to meet Putin. Instead, it was a courteous visit, rather than a strategic bet with a code and a heavy pressure.
The purpose of Julani's trip is clear: to restart political and military cooperation with Russia. His public statement characterized this as "the beginning of a new era of Syrian-Russian relations", but what is more noteworthy is that the reason why this visit has not been cancelled shows that for Syria, even if other Arab countries are absent and Russia is in a diplomatic embarrassing period, it can't wait any longer.
For a newly established interim government that has not been widely recognized internationally, "who stands on" is far more important than "which side it stands on".
Having lost the mountains of the West, why did Julian have to go to Moscow?
Julian was armed by the opposition and fought with the Assad regime for years, and during the most intense years of the civil war, his camp was defeated by Russian airstrikes.
But the post-war reality is in sight.The U.S. troops have basically evacuated from northern Syria, leaving a large power vacuum.Israel’s strikes on Syrian targets have never stopped, especially in the fact that several precision strikes have been launched across the border since Julian took office, trying to contain Iranian forces and warning any new forces that could threaten its security in the north.
In the face of continuous airstrikes, a crumbling economy, crumbling food and fuel supply lines, and an unformed formal army, Julian’s hopes for Western “support” have almost disappeared.The U.S. Europe is no longer concerned about the distribution of power in Syria, nor is it intended to provide its national building resources.
In such a vacuum, Julian has no choice.Russia, although once an opponent on the battlefield, still has military force, bases and intelligence networks in Syria, and more importantly, it is one of the few countries willing to maintain influence in the Middle East.
For Julani, instead of betting on an unreliable future ally, it is better to stabilize a realistic, if not credible, opponent.
Exchange stability between base and gendarmerie: Julani's "meeting gift"
According to sources inside the Syrian diplomatic system, the Syrian side has prepared three “major cooperation proposals”:
First, reaffirming Russia’s military positions at two military bases in Tartus and Hemeim. These two bases are the Russian military’s most important naval and air bases in the Middle East and have continued to operate over the past decade. Though the fall of the Assad regime has caused the legal basis to be blurred, Julian actively put forward the “renewal” signal, widely interpreted as a sovereign exchange compromise.
The second is the invitation to re-deploy Russian gendarmerie troops at the Syrian border and key areas in the north.Julani said the move was intended to "restrain Israeli cross-border operations", but a more genuine motive may be to use the Russian gendarmerie as a temporary stabilization force to fill the unfinished armed gaps in the country.
The third item is a request for technical and financial assistance for post-war reconstruction. Although the new Syrian regime has taken control of most of the northern administrative regions, water, electricity, medical care, roads, and ports have been almost completely paralyzed. Jurani hopes that Russia will provide rapid support in equipment, engineering teams and fuel, and is even willing to open up resource development rights and port management rights for this purpose.
In other words, the Syrian side is greatly transferring its sovereignty space in exchange for a realistic and feasible survival guarantee. The former "independent revolutionary regime" had to complete a realistic self-castration before the regime was stable.
The Assad issue was put on the table: but the Kremlin only gave a silent veto
In the deal, the most sensitive proposal was hidden under “political issues.”Julani also carried a political request: asking Russia to extradite former President Assad back to Syria to accept a search warrant issued by a Syrian court in September.
Julian believes that only the lawful disposal of the “ex-regime head” can get the new government free from the labels of the past civil war and fulfill its political commitments to the anti-Assad faction at home.
On the eve of Julian’s arrival in Russia, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov publicly stated, “The Assad family is safe in Moscow and will not repeat Gaddafi’s fate.”
From the perspective of Russia, Assad is not only a "political asset" invested for more than a decade, but also a symbol of his strategic credibility in the Middle East. Once extradition is agreed, it will be widely interpreted as Russia abandoning its former ally, which will undermine its proxy policies in Iran, Venezuela and even Africa.
Putin will not give up the “immagine of a refugee” he has created on the global stage for the political liquidation needs of a new regime that is not yet stable.
Reality concessions: Behind Julani's "watching God's will" is actual submission
Faced with Russian rejection, Julian tried to reclaim the right to speak at a press conference, saying: “The trial of Assad is Syria’s solemn promise to the people, but how it will be implemented depends on the real conditions.”
These words are euphemistic, but in fact they are an open concession. Julani knew that if he insisted on Assad's extradition, he would immediately encounter retaliation from Moscow withdrawing its military support or even turning to support competing forces. At present, he cannot bear the consequences of this showdown.
As a result, Assad became a "ceremonial accusation" that must be mentioned but not allowed to be truly fulfilled. It exists in the domestic political lexicon and in the "sunken topic" of international diplomacy.
Giuliani demonstrated his political stance by applying for extradition, while masquerading his inability to act with “realistic compromises,” a typical double-track linguistic – speaking domestically and speaking to the Russian side.
The "new era" of cooperation is still based on the remains of the old pattern
The picture of Julian shaking his hand with Putin is officially defined as the opening of a new era of Syrian-Russian cooperation. But essentially, this is only an update of the version of the old allies withdrawal, the new power. The Russian army is still stationed, the garrison patrol the old, the base continues to operate, the only change is that the people who came to sign the contract changed the name.
Syria, on the other hand, is looking for a survival gap between verbal sovereignty and realistic dependence. While claiming to liquidate the former dynasty, he had to continue the military arrangements of the old protectors.
Assad has been captured by the high cabinet, not handed over or mentioned anymore.He still lives in Moscow, and his shadow is still a red line that cannot be crossed in Julian's diplomatic language.