World Wide Web news showed that after two consecutive days of fierce exchanges of fire, the Pakistan Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement saying: At the request of the Afghan government, the two countries have agreed to a temporary ceasefire for 48 hours to "seek a solution to the problem."
Behind this sudden ceasefire was the fierce air strike of the Pakistan Air Force that lasted all day yesterday.
According to Russian satellite networks and other media reports, on the 15th, Pakistan again deployed JF-17 and F-16 fighter jets to carry out precise strikes on several targets throughout Afghanistan, including the capital Kabul, the Taliban headquarters in Kandahar, the border town of Spinborak.
Images circulated on social media showed a massive explosion in Kabul during the day, smoke leaked, and local residents shouted “Pakistani fighter jets broke the line of defense.”
According to Pakistani statistics, the air strikes accurately destroyed the military bases of the 4th Battalion and 6th Border Brigade in Kandahar Province, as well as the battalion-level headquarters of Spin-Bodak.
It is also that the Afghan Taliban intelligence chief Abdul Hak Vasik was killed in the airstrike, and if true, it would be a heavy blow to the Taliban's top level.
In this regard, the Pakistani military pointed out that the operation was aimed at the Pakistani Taliban forces in Afghanistan (hereinafter referred to as "Bata") and the Afghan Taliban forces that sheltered them.
In the statement, the Pakistani side intentionally used "Afghan Taliban authorities" rather than "government", suggesting reservations about its legitimacy.
The Afghan Taliban also tried to mitigate the impact of the strike, with spokesman Zabiura Mujahid claiming the Kabul explosion was a “oil tanker accident,” but on-site videos and multiple sources pointed to airstrikes.
Instead, this response exposed the plight of the Taliban: in the face of Pakistan's air superiority, they were neither able to intercept nor bear the accusation of "incompetence" by public opinion.
Therefore, only a few hours after the air strike, the Afghan Taliban voluntarily demanded a ceasefire.
Pakistan has demonstrated by a “surgical strike” that its air force can go deep into the heart of Afghanistan at any time.
Pakistan relies on air superiority to carry out "dimensionality reduction strikes": JF-17 Xiaolong is equipped with Thunderstone-6 gliding guided bombs, F-16 performs escort missions, and drones are responsible for reconnaissance and knife replenishment.
This combination is uninhabited in Afghanistan, where there is no air defense system.
The Afghan Taliban, despite the “herence” left by the U.S. troops during their withdrawal – 40,000 khmer military vehicles, anti-mining anti-volcanic vehicles, M113 armored vehicles, and a large number of single-soldat weapons and night vision instruments – are mainly used for ground guerrilla combat.
In the face of air strikes, Taliban troops can only be passively beaten, and there are even rumors of "tanks captured" (although unconfirmed).
The Arab side had publicly demonstrated the so-called seized Pakistani rifles, military uniforms and other "war merchandise", but was questioned as a means of propaganda, because in the video only light weapons were seen, and no heavy equipment such as main battle tanks were seen.
However, ground warfare remains Afghanistan's trump card.
Pakistan is well aware that once it penetrates into the territory of Afghanistan, it may repeat the similarity of the USSR "Imperial graveyard".Therefore, the Pakistani army chose to "see well and collect", to pressure air strikes rather than occupation, both to avoid falling into the dirt and to maximize the deterrent effect.
The 48-hour ceasefire is the result of weighing the pros and cons between the two sides.
This kind of confrontation is consuming on both sides: Pakistan's economy can't support a long-term war, and Afghanistan's reconstruction process will be completely interrupted.
But ceasefire ≠ reconciliation. The core contradictions between the two sides remain unresolved:
- Responsibility struggle against terrorism: Pakistan demands that the Albanian side completely clear Bata, while Afghanistan insists on “no interference in internal affairs.”
Since 2025, Bata has launched more than 200 terrorist attacks in Pakistan, killing more than 460 people and even killing 14 field-level officers.
Just before this round of conflict, Bata ambushed a Pakistani convoy in Gulham area, killing 16 soldiers. This has also become the fuse of this round of conflict. This stalemate eventually turned into a military showdown.
Border security mechanisms: How do the two sides in lack of mutual trust build a border control system together?The historically controversial “Duland Line” is still a time bomb.
3. Regional powers intervene: India's close relationship with Afghanistan is a thorn in Pakistan's throat, and the U.S. policy towards Afghanistan is also subject to variables.
If negotiations break down within 48 hours, the conflict could escalate into a "limited war"-Pakistan continues to use air strikes to strike high-value targets, while Afghanistan creates instability in Pakistan through proxy wars.
That means that the two countries will enter a new round of "war of attrition."
Afghanistan used to sink the British Empire, the Soviet Union and the United States, but the Pakistani airstrikes revealed a new reality: when the opponent has air control and precision combat capabilities, the barriers to the "mountain guerrilla" are disappearing.
The Taliban need to reassess: how to deal with the escalation of "asymmetric warfare" without being able to seize air supremacy?
For Pakistan, this war has verified the actual combat capability of Chinese and Pakistani equipment. The cooperation between JF-17 Xiaolong and domestically produced guided bombs is not only low-cost, but also avoids being subject to Western arms export terms (such as restrictions on the use of F-16).
When the ceasefire agreement was signed, the smoke in Kabul was not yet scattered.The Afghan Taliban bowed their heads at the negotiating table, not because they lost the will to fight, but because they found that the Pakistani air force was strong.
And Pakistan is clearly aware that bombs can only be used in exchange for a temporary compromise and can’t blow up lasting peace – unless the two sides are willing at the negotiating table to really unlock the dead end that has been entangled for a century.