As we all know, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has been fighting for several years since it broke out in 2022. The two sides have come and gone, and no one has gained the absolute upper hand. Many people trace back to the root causes and always like to say that Ukraine's desire to join NATO is the trigger, or Russia's security concerns. But there is an interesting saying: if Russia hadn't hosted the 2014 Sochi Winter Olympics, maybe this conflict wouldn't have happened at all.
This sounds like a bit of a joke, but think carefully, and it really makes sense. not that the Olympics directly caused the war, but that time is too coincidental, just when the Ukrainian domestic disorder became a pot, Russia because of the Olympics, could not or did not want to interfere with the big flag, and the result has led to the situation step by step to the abyss.
At the end of 2013, Ukraine President Yanukovych had originally negotiated an association agreement with the European Union, and was about to sign it. However, he suddenly changed his mind and said he would not sign it, and turned around to sign a preferential natural gas agreement with Russia. When this happened, the pro-European people in western Ukraine exploded. They feel that Yanukovych is too pro-Russian, pulling the country towards Russia, and losing the opportunity to cooperate with Europe.
Starting in November, mass protests began in Kiev's Independence Square, initially with students and intellectuals, and then more ordinary people joined. The protests lasted for months, and the government tried to suppress but did not suppress. By February 2014, things grew, the protests turned into violent conflict, police and protesters confronted, many people were killed and wounded. On February 22, parliament directly dismissed Yanukovych, and he ran to Russia.
What is Russia doing at this time? Busy with the Sochi Winter Olympics. From the opening on February 7th to the closing on February 23rd, the eyes of the whole world are fixed there. Russia spent more than US$50 billion to host the Olympics, setting a historical record for the Winter Olympics. Putin wants to use this to showcase the country's strength and enhance its international image. During the Olympics, Russian troops did mobilize a lot, but officials said it was for security and counter-terrorism, not against Ukraine. As a result, Russia did not send troops to Ukraine to help Yanukovych stabilize the situation.
If there were no such thing as the Olympics, would Russia directly send troops to intervene? Many people think it will because Russia has a criminal record. For example, in 2022, there was chaos in Kazakhstan. The rise in natural gas prices triggered nationwide protests. The government asked the Collective Security Treaty Organization for help. Russia took the lead in sending troops. Thousands of soldiers brought the situation under control within a few days and quickly withdrew. That time in Kazakhstan, Russia acted quickly, accurately and ruthlessly, and did not let the matter escalate.
Compared with Ukraine, the time is too sensitive. Yanukovych stepped down just at the end of the Olympics. If Russia sent troops, there would be a stir in the international community. Political figures and media from various countries who came to participate in the Olympics are all in Sochi. Russia does not want to cause a scandal at the grand event it hosts.
Putin then publicly said that Ukraine's affairs are internal and Russia will not interfere. but afterwards, this is a bit unstable, because once the Olympics ended, Russia took action on Crimea.
On March 1, the Russian parliament approved the use of troops, and armed militants soon took control of the parliament and airport of Crimea. On March 16, the referendum, the majority supported joining Russia, and on March 18, Putin signed a bill to incorporate Crimea into Russia. This series of actions, the international community denies, the European Union and the United States immediately sanctioned Russia, frozen assets, and banned travel.
For if there were no Olympics, Russia might have intervened in the mess in Ukraine sooner, helped Yanukovych to suppress the protests, or at least not let him fall so easily. Yanukovych was pro-Russian, and after he left, the new pro-European government immediately abolished the official status of Russian, the pro-Russian regions in the east did not work, Donetsk and Lugansk began to fight for independence and armed confrontation.
This sowed the seeds of civil war, which lasted from 2014 to 2022 when Russia fully invaded. Russia's logic is that Ukraine's pro-West will threaten its own security, especially if Ukraine joins NATO, NATO troops can go directly to Russia's doorstep. Putin said that NATO's eastward expansion is Russia's red line that Ukraine cannot cross.
But backwards, this was not a unilateral decision of the Olympics. The Ukrainian interior was severely divided, the east and south were closely bound to the Russian cultural economy, and the west was more pro-European. Language, culture, history were different, and the pro-Russian and pro-European factions had long been in conflict. Yanukovych's policy intensified this, he came to power on the east votes, but ignored the demands of the west.
The EU agreement was rejected in 2013 because Russia threatened to raise gas prices, and the Ukrainian economy could not do without Russian energy. As a result, the protest broke out, and western countries fueled the flames behind it, providing financial and media support. Although they denied it, the evidence showed that NGOs and politicians were involved.
The Olympics gave Russia temporary restraint, but also gave the West an opportunity. After the new government took office, it immediately signed an agreement with the EU, and NATO also strengthened cooperation. Russia feels pushed into a corner, and Crimea is the first step in counterattack. The place was historically Russian. Khrushchev allocated it to Ukraine in 1954, and most of the residents are Russian.
The results of the referendum show that more than 95% support joining Russia. Although the West says it is illegal, Russia doesn't care. After the civil war in the east, Russia was accused of supporting the rebels and providing weapons and personnel. Although Putin has always denied it, UN reports and intelligence show evidence. From 2014 to 2021, the conflict killed more than 14,000 people and displaced millions.
Fast forward to 2022, Russia has gathered more than 100,000 troops on the border, and the full-scale war will start on February 24. The rationale is "de-Nazification" and protection of eastern Russians, but it is essentially geostrategic. If Ukraine completely turns to the West, Russia's Black Sea outlet and buffer zone will be gone.
Up to now, Russia has controlled Crimea and parts of the eastern land, but it has paid a huge price. The casualties of soldiers are estimated to exceed 500,000, and the economy has been dragged down by sanctions. Ukraine is even worse, with cities destroyed and its economy regressing for decades, relying on Western aid to support it. The European Union and the United States have given hundreds of billions of aid, with weapons ranging from Javelin missiles to F-16 aircraft, but they are also struggling to cope with it.
After Trump took office, he said that he would end the war within 24 hours. Although it didn't happen, he was pushing negotiations. After taking office in January 2025, Trump had a phone call with Putin and met in Alaska in August. However, on September 18, Trump said that Putin had disappointed him and considered increasing sanctions. Peace can't be reached because the territorial issue is stuck. Russia wants the four eastern states, but Ukraine does not recognize them.
Now on the battlefield, Russia is slowly advancing in the east, recently taking 91 square miles of land, but Ukraine has counterattacked with drones and missiles, even hitting Russia. According to the latest news on September 19, Russian drones invaded Polish airspace. NATO responded urgently, but did not escalate.
Maybe Russia sent troops to stabilize Yanukovych early, Ukraine continued pro-Russia, there would be no Crimean crisis, and there would be no invasion in 2022.
But there are also those who say that the contradictions broke out early and late, the Olympics just delayed. Ukraine’s geographical position is too deadly, trapped between Russia and Europe, everyone wants to pull. Russia feels NATO’s expansion to the east began in 1999, Poland and the Baltic countries joined, and now it’s the turn of Ukraine, can’t stand.
International relations are a game of interests and there are no eternal friends. Russia and the United States were once at war, but now Trump wants to talk about peace, and Russia is also showing kindness. China is neutral on this matter and calls for peace, but also strengthens its own strength. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has proved that relying on others is not enough, you have to be tough on yourself.