It has been quite a long time since the Madrid talks ended, and the outside world was generally expected that the Trump administration would release a meeting signal to China, or intend to draw a stop to the Sino-U.S. trade dispute. However, before the expected easing stance was formed, the U.S. side led to break some kind of silence formed after the Sino-U.S. talks, and was eager to take a series of restrictive measures against China. In the face of this behavior of the U.S. side, China then took strong countermeasures.
It stands to reason that Trump clearly knows that he didn't have the upper hand in the trade war. Why did Trump suddenly turn his face? At the same time, the CEO of Pfizer in the United States said that China is five times that of the United States, and it is necessary to cooperate with China.
So in this context, where will Sino-US relations go?
It's not surprising that Trump suddenly turned his face: he misjudged China's hardness in calculating political accounts
After the Madrid talks, the outside world originally thought that the Sino-US trade dispute could be slowed down. Unexpectedly, the Trump administration tore up that "tacit understanding" first-at the end of September, it suddenly increased the export restrictions on Chinese enterprises and made a "penetrating rule". Originally, there were about 3,000 restricted Chinese enterprises, but now it has directly expanded to thousands, even other subsidiaries.
The Chinese side was also unambiguous, and immediately countered: not only tightened the control of rare earth exports, but also froze the assets of 12 U.S. military-industrial enterprises in China in accordance with the Anti-Foreign Sanctions Act, even the executives of these 10 enterprises were directly prevented from entering.
This time, Trump was in a hurry and publicly said that China was "full of hostility", but everyone with a discerning eye knows that the United States has not taken advantage of the trade war for so long.
Trump's turn of the face is not a momentary impulse at all. On the surface, he wants to block China by technological blockade, in fact, he counts two accounts.
One is domestic political accounts-he is now facing trouble such as a government shutdown. Being tough on China has always been his old way to divert domestic conflicts. Calling China "hostility" can give cake to his supporters, making him appear tough enough.
The other is a misjudgment account-the United States probably thinks that China will be afraid of the expansion of the "entity list", but it didn't expect China to be prepared.
You must know that China controls 90% of the world's rare earth separation and processing and 93% of magnet manufacturing. Once the new rules on rare earth came out, they directly hit the key points of the U.S. automobile and technology supply chain. This is something Trump did not expect."tough spot".
What is even more shocking is that even Wu Zibao, a professor at the University of Fudan, has made it clear: the US side is "make the mistake first, China will counteract", and Trump blames on China only by knocking it back.
Pfizer CEO said that "China is five times the size of the United States": it just shows the contradiction of U.S. policies
Just as Trump shouted “hostile,” the CEO of Pfizer struck the U.S. embarrassment with a phrase: “Chinese pharmaceutical companies recruit patients to clinical trials two to five times faster than the U.S. and must work with China.”
In the pharmaceutical industry, clinical trials are the key to the listing of new drugs, China's population base is large, medical network efficiency is high, American pharmaceutical companies can not bypass China.
He dared to say this, because China's market and resources have become the "necessary items" of large American enterprises, and the first thing that hurts is the United States itself.
The most ironic thing about this is that the U.S. government is imposing various restrictions in the front, but companies are rushing to cooperate behind. This is a completely different logic.
Rarely speaking, the U.S. Treasury Department is willing to "take all necessary measures", while looking forward to talks with China, even Trump said that the tariffs will not come into effect before November.This is all behind the pressure of enterprises - such as Lockheed Martin military-industrial enterprises, the business in China after the sanctions stopped; technology companies have no Chinese rare earth, chips, new energy vehicles can not be made.
The experts of Albright Stonebridge Group also saw clearly: the United States was standing on the "edge of the cliff" again, but this time both sides had seen the consequences, and no one could bear it if it really collapsed. Pfizer's "5 times" is actually a reminder to the U.S. government: Don't go against market rules.
How will Sino-US relations go? Competition on the edge of the cliff, but there is a high probability of "fighting without breaking"
The Trump administration for a while threatened to increase tariffs, for a while again said "everything will go well"; China has not softened, the Ministry of Commerce directly said "cannot want to talk on the one hand, while engaging in threats of intimidation", clearly stated that will not sacrifice their interests in order to negotiate.
This straightening looks messy, in fact, is regular – it is difficult to completely ease in the short term, but it will not really tear off the face.
First of all, the "struggle" aspect, the strength of the technology field must continue. the United States is afraid of China's breakthrough in science and technology, and will then engage in "entity list" expansion, export control this set; China has also been prepared, with rare-earth counter control is "U.S. approach to the United States", as in the course of the U.S. card China chip, precisely hit the soft ribs of the United States.
Moreover, China's counter-measures are becoming more and more organized. From sanctioning military industrial enterprises to controlling strategic resources, they are all based on the law, and the United States has no choice.
However, "fighting" belongs to "fighting", and it is unrealistic to completely decouple. Professor Wang Yiwei of Renmin University of China is right: China has long understood Trump's "trading routine" and grasped the weakness of the United States-in the short term, the United States can't do without China's supply chain and market.
Pfizer's example is just the tip of the iceberg. From new energy to medicine, the interests of American companies have long been tied to China.
In the long run, China-U.S. relations will be stuck at the "fight and not break" balance.In fact, the initiative has been on the side of the United States, and China has made the attitude very clear: it is possible to talk, but it must remove those unreasonable restrictions and bring out the sincerity.
If Trump still clings to the old method of "extreme pressure", he will only continue to hit the wall; but if he can really listen to the voices of companies and relax some restrictions, there is still room for relaxation on both sides.
After all, there is no winner in the trade war, which is a fact that even the U.S. Treasury Secretary has to admit-otherwise, he wouldn't be tough while clinging to the communication channels.
In the final analysis, there is both competition and inescapable cooperation between China and the United States. How to move forward in the future depends on whether the U.S. government chooses to stand with public opinion and the market, or continues to fight hard with China.
Source of information:
Straits Network-CNN: The current tension between China and the United States could have been avoided, and the chief culprit is the Trump administration's expansion of the "entity list"
Observer. com-CEO of Pfizer: China is five times the size of the United States. We have to cooperate