Trump has also played a new card in the energy field, but this time it does not seem to be so successful.
On October 15, local time, Trump told reporters at the White House that Indian Prime Minister Modi had promised him to stop buying Russian oil, adding a meaningful phrase: “Now is the time for China to take the same action.”
However, this seemingly heavy statement suffered triple blows in the following 24 hours: India's vague response that neither confirmed nor denied, China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs's uncompromising tough stance, and Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak's calmness to "continue to cooperate with friendly partners."
Trump's performance at the press conference was complacent. He vowed to tell reporters: "Modi will no longer buy oil from Russia, but he cannot stop it immediately. This requires a process."
Meanwhile, it was as if he had successfully cut off a major source of energy revenue in Russia.
However, the subsequent statement of the Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs is quite interesting. The spokesman only said that "the consistent priority of the government is to protect the interests of Indian consumers in the volatile energy environment", and mentioned that "including appropriate broadening and diversification of energy sources".
The statement neither confirms nor directly denies Trump’s assertions, and uses a standard diplomatic statement.
India’s trade secretary, Rajesh Agavall, said India is currently buying $120 to $13 billion worth of crude oil and natural gas annually from the United States, with “nearly doubling the space.”
This appears to fit the United States, and the fact suggests India’s increased purchase of U.S. oil is the prerequisite for “price competitiveness”, leaving a large turnaround.
In response to Trump's call, China Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian gave a clear response at a regular press conference on October 16:"It is legitimate and legal for China to carry out normal economic, trade and energy cooperation with countries around the world, including Russia. The US approach is typical unilateral bullying and economic coercion."
"Unilateral bullying" and "economic coercion", these words accurately reveal the essence of the problem. Lin Jian further emphasized: "If China's legitimate rights and interests are damaged, China will resolutely counter it." This statement is consistent with China's Ministry of Commerce's recent "fight and accompany it to the end; Talk, open the door" position is completely consistent.
As one of the world’s largest energy importers, China has full autonomy in determining its own energy procurement strategy without looking at the face of any country.
Moreover, the energy cooperation between China and Russia has already formed a solid strategic partnership, which cannot be shaken by Trump's few words.
In the face of Trump’s remarks, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak responded with a slight depreciation: “Russia continues to work with its friendly partners.”
He also pointed out in particular that “Russian energy is in demand in the global market, from an economic point of view, it is advantageous and reasonable to buy Russian energy”, which directly shatters the naivety of Trump’s strategy, the Putin administration will stand on the side of partners such as China.
In fact, India has become the largest buyer of discounted Russian seaborne oil after the Russia-Ukraine conflict, increasing Russia's share of Indian oil imports from less than 1% to about 35%. This trade relationship based on mutual benefit is far stronger than political pressure.
Trump’s pressure on India and China to stop buying Russian oil appears to be to cut off Russian war funding, but behind it are more complex geostrategic considerations.
On the one hand, the United States has always hoped to exclude Russia from the global energy market and weaken its international influence.
On the other hand, the United States is also happy to see its energy exports occupy a larger market share. While Trump announced that India would stop purchasing Russian oil, he did not forget to mention that the United States could supply it with energy, which is the best proof.
However, the Trump administration seems to have ignored basic market laws, and the fundamental driving force of energy trade is economic interests rather than political loyalty.
India’s massive purchase of Russian oil is mainly due to its highly competitive discount prices.China’s energy cooperation with Russia is deeply rooted in long-term strategic cooperation and geographical proximity.