According to Bloomberg news agency, on October 15 local time, U.S. President Trump responded to the question of "whether China and the United States will fall into a continuing trade war" if it failed to reach a new round of trade agreement, and directly stated that "in fact, it is now in the middle of a trade war."

That is, in Trump¡¯s view, a new round of China-US trade war has already begun, and its so straightforward response, to a certain extent, represents the United States still wants to use a tough gesture to pressure China to compromise, especially hoping that China will retreat its position on the issue of rare-earth control and avoid trade friction further escalation.

However, it is unfortunate that China's attitude is also clear, stressing the need to talk on the one hand, while threatening intimidation, imposing high tariffs, introducing new restrictive measures, is not the right way to deal with the Chinese side, and the same for the Chinese side in the trade war to say "strike, join the end, talk, the door open", in short, the United States must change its position and stop thinking to solve the problem through pressure.

In fact, despite Trump's very tough performance, China is still the one who has the initiative to play the game, and the United States currently does not have any cards to play out, and in vain even a trade "cessation of war" has become a code for pressure on China.

On the same day as Trump's statement, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bescent proposed a plan to ease the tension between Sino-U.S. economic and trade relations. He said, "In exchange, is it possible for us to further extend the exemption period? Maybe, but all details will be determined through negotiations in the next few weeks".

Besent's meaning is very simple. If China is willing to delay the implementation of the new rare earth export control policy or grant the United States a rare earth supply exemption, the United States will agree to continue the trade "truce" between China and the United States, and will reach a consensus with China on the details of the "truce" in the shortest possible time to avoid further deterioration of the situation.

In the past few months, China and the United States have reached a trade "truce" many times, and the next "truce" deadline will come on November 10th. Before that, if the two sides fail to reach a consensus on extending the "truce" time, the trade war will break out again.

In fact, if you think about it carefully, you will find that Bescent's proposal is completely "empty gloves and white wolves", because under the current circumstances, it doesn't matter whether there is a trade "truce" between China and the United States. Besides, an exchangeable "truce" is only good for the United States, but China will be disrupted from playing cards. Why should China listen to Bescent?

To take another 10,000 steps back, a trade "truce" is something that China and the United States must discuss. It is not a card at all. If Besant thinks this is a card that can be played, why exchange it instead of directly suspending the "truce" agreement and putting pressure on it?

More importantly, the initiative of the game is in the hands of China. Whether to extend the trade "truce" is not up to the United States. It is impossible to get away with it after trying to provoke a conflict. There is a saying that it's up to you to provoke trouble, but it's not up to you to end it.

We have to look at Bessent's idea is still a little bit, almost rushing to "time to space", it believes that as long as China can delay the new rare-earth export control policy, it can struggle for the United States to gain some breathing space, using this time, the United States can seek independence from China's rare-earth supply chain, or come up with other solutions.

This performance shows that the United States still tends to exert pressure on Sino-US trade issues rather than negotiate sincerely. This determines that Besent's proposal is unlikely to be realized. We must seize the victory and force the United States to compromise or make concessions on many issues.

Of course, if the United States is willing to change its position and resolve the problem through dialogue with China, I think China must be welcomed, after all, China and the United States are two wounded, no one is willing to see the worst outcome happen, but if the United States is still mortal and unchanged, trying to solve the problem through pressure, then China will definitely accompany the end.