On the evening of 14 to the morning of 15 October, the Afghan Taliban regime launched a massive attack on the border post in the Kuram region of the northwestern province of Keïber-Pushto in Pakistan, using heavy weapons and even T-55 tanks, killing at least nine Pakistani soldiers, capturing many, and collapsing a key checkpoint.
This deliberate provocation is widely viewed as retaliation for Pakistan’s previous cross-border strikes against the “Pakistan Taliban” (TTP) camp – and the “Bata” is the terrorist group hiding in Afghanistan, which has long been hostile to Israel.
However, the Taliban clearly grossly misjudged their adversaries with nuclear weapons and a full suite of land, sea and air equipment. In the face of provocation, Pakistan, with a population of 240 million, did not stop at the ground counterattack, but sacrificed an iron fist in the air-the JF-17 "Fierce Dragon" fighter jet jointly developed by China and Pakistan was equipped with precision-guided munitions and launched a thunderous strike against Afghanistan in the early morning of 15th.
The scope and intensity of the air strikes are far greater than before: the border town of Spin Boldak in Kandahar Province, many outposts in Ghazna, the headquarters of the 4th Taliban Battalion and the 6th Frontier Brigade, and even many military facilities in the capital Kabul were precisely bombed.
At about 3 pm local time on the 15th in Kabul, there were several loud noises in the city center and thick smoke soared into the sky. Taliban spokesman Mujahid hastily declared that "the tanker caught fire", but witnesses clearly heard at least three explosions, and the wreckage of the drone was scattered in residential buildings. The international media even directly quoted Pakistani news: "This is a comprehensive response to the Taliban's provocation."
What is even more fatal is that Pakistan announced that Abdul Haq Wasik, the acting Taliban director of the General Intelligence Directorate, was killed in an airstrike-this person had long sheltered "Bata" and was a key Pakistani target for clearance.
As the main force of the Pakistani air force, its loaded Thunderstorm-6 flying guided bombs and CM-400 supersonic anti-radiation missiles form a defeat strike on the Taliban positions without air defense capabilities.
Videos circulated on social media showed that the T-55 tank was instantly exploded under the guidance of a drone; the gunfire and airstrikes at the border post turned into burning ground.
The Pakistani army even planted the national flag 3 kilometers away in Afghanistan, destroyed more than 20 Taliban strongholds, and systematically bombed outposts after seizing weapons, demonstrating its determination to "punitive counterattack."
The military adventure of the Taliban is the bad result of strategic misjudgment.In the first place, overestimating its own combat strength.Despite the inheritance of the US military's remaining billions of dollars of equipment, the Taliban lacks a modern command system and air defense capabilities, in the face of the F-16 "Dragon" and combat drones, the Pakistani Air Force is no different than "naked run".
Second, underestimate Pakistan's bottom line. Pakistan has long made it clear that it will never tolerate Afghan territory being used as a springboard for anti-Pakistani terrorist activities. This time, "Atta" and "Bata" attacked together and touched the red line of sovereignty.
Third, the wrong judgment of the international environment. Just before the outbreak of the conflict, the Afghan Foreign Minister just ended his visit to India, and the two sides announced the establishment of mutual embassies and the resumption of Chabahar port cooperation.
India's role in this round of game is delicate. New Delhi took advantage of the hostile relationship between the Taliban and Pakistan to quickly repair relations and tried to open up the "Indo-Iraq-Afghanistan Corridor" through Chabahar Port, bypassing Pakistan and going directly to Central Asia. However, the United States imposed sanctions on Chabahar Port at the end of September, which frustrated India's strategy.
Ironically, India pulled the Taliban on one side and was accused of covertly supporting the Baluchist separatist forces with the "Bata", playing the "agent war" trick. However, the October 15 airstrikes proved that diplomatic speculation was difficult to cover up military vulnerability in the face of real combat force.
In the afternoon, the Taliban urged an emergency ceasefire; Pakistan, despite a tough response, agreed to a 48-hour temporary ceasefire starting at 18:00 on the same day, leaving a window for dialogue.
This turning point is extremely ironic-the Taliban, who had clamored that "only 10% of the force was used" a few hours ago, were forced to bow their heads a few hours later. The legitimacy of the Taliban's regime is inherently fragile. If the capital is bombed and senior officials are killed due to provocations of strong neighbors, it may cause internal turmoil.
The four-party game between China, Pakistan, India and Afghanistan clearly emerges at this moment: China adheres to the principle of "Afghan-led" and urges reconciliation, but resolutely opposes any behavior that damages the security of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor; Pakistan defends its core interests by force and demonstrates its determination that "nuclear powers cannot be ignored";
India is trying to profit, but it is limited by the United States, Russia and China; The Taliban swayed from side to side under the anxiety of survival. They wanted to use India to check and balance Pakistan, but did not dare to completely offend China and Russia.
After this role, the Durand line no longer has any vague space. Pakistan has drawn a red line with the "Dragon" trail: who refuses TTP, who provokes sovereignty, who has to bear the price of the accurate strike.
If the Taliban continue to play with fire, the next air strike may not be just a fig leaf of "tanker fire". After all, in South Asian chess, true power is never written by slogans, but by steel and fire.