Literally Goranduo
Edited | Goranduo
Statement: The content of this article is written based on authoritative materials and combined with personal opinions. The source of the literature and screenshots have been marked at the end of the article. Please know.
When Trump once again waved the trade stick, the market did not shake, diplomacy did not panic, and the media no longer exclaimed that "a trade war is coming." The reason is simple, this is no longer 2018.
On October 14, Trump once again pointed to China, vowing to end the trade of consuming oil and other things, on the grounds that "China does not intentionally buy American soybeans". but the Chinese side with only one word, let the US media understand, this time, the initiative is not in the hands of the United States.
Trump’s statement was not complicated. He wrote on his own social platform: “China refuses to buy our agricultural products, which is an economic hostility. If I be re-elected, I will consider ending the oil trade with China.
This seems to be a tough word, but in reality it is a flaw. Firstly, the “eating oil” imported by the United States from China is not a general civilian oil, but rather Waste edible oil (UCO)It is mainly used for biofuels, with an annual trade value of only $1.1 billion.
Secondly, Trump's so-called "termination of trade" is nothing more than a knife on an imported category that is already on the margins. In contrast, China has completely stopped importing soybeans from the United States as early as early as the beginning of 2025. This figure will reach 27 million tons in 2024, worth US$12.8 billion。
On October 15, China's Foreign Ministry spokesman, Lin Cheng, said at a routine press conference: "China's position is consistent and clear, there are no winners in the trade war and the tariff war, and it does not meet the interests of either party, and the two sides should negotiate on the basis of equality, respect and reciprocity to resolve relevant issues."
There is no loud confrontation or emotional catharsis in this sentence, but Accurately conveyed two key signals, not proactively provoking, but never compromising。 CNN immediately commented that China's response was "calm and powerful" and "the counter-measures were reasonable".
Why did Trump choose this time to fire? The reasons are not complicated. In 2025, agricultural states in the United States are experiencing a structural crisis. As China turns to Brazil and Argentina to purchase soybeans, American farmers are facing unprecedented pressure.
Soybean prices fell by 40% from a 2022 high, and farm bankruptcy in the Midwest rose by 35%. North Dakota's storage capacity was forced to urgently expand to 7 million bushels just to accommodate slow-moving soybeans.
And these agricultural states are Trump's hardcore ticket warehouses. Facing the pressure of the midterm elections, Trump needs an outlet. He can't tell farmers that it was his intensification of the trade war four years ago that led to today's situation.
He was more reluctant to admit that in today’s global supply chain restructuring, U.S. soybeans have been replaced by cheaper and more stable South American products.
But this time,China not only failed to respond to Trump's "end of eaten oil trade" threat, but on the same day, at the dinner of the National Committee on US-China relations with Ambassador Xi Jinping in the United States, re-accentuated the three consensus: the trade war has no winners, insists on mutual respect and win-win cooperation, and calls for China-US relations to return to the right track.
The Ministry of Commerce has already stated its attitude: "Fight, accompany to the end; Talk, the door is open." This "silent response" is the most effective counterattack against Trump's personal political operation.
Because China understands that this is not a real trade dispute, but a crisis public relations of Trump. Within the United States, Trump's strategy has also been questioned.
Finance Minister Bescent said in an interview with the media recently that "the situation has greatly eased" and that imposing a 100% tariff on China "may not happen", and stressed that "the South Korea meeting will still be held as scheduled".
This statement sends a clear signal, The White House does not intend to regard Trump's remarks as an official position。More importantly, There are clear differences within the United States.。
The Hawks remain tough, but pragmatists begin to warn that if the conflict escalates again, China’s countermeasures will be far more accurate and deadly than ever before.
In fact, China's counter-made toolbox has long been prepared properly. Rare land export controlsChina controls 85% of the world’s rare earth processing capacity, with heavy rare earth accounting for up to 99.9%. These resources are the lifeblood of U.S. high-end manufacturing.
From F-35 fighter jets to Tesla batteries, from iPhone chips to artificial intelligence servers, without rare earths, it is a broken link. This control measure will officially take effect from December 1, 2025.
The American think tank RAND Corporation believes that China's countermeasures "imitate the logic of U.S. sanctions," but pay more attention to rules. CNN commented: "This is not a provocation, but a reciprocal response. Trump uses economic threats like a Mafia boss, but China is no longer the passive trading partner."
The United States is still trying to maintain its dominance in global technology and supply chains, forcing China to make concessions through tariffs, chip bans, and investment restrictions, but China has chosen to respond to this with strategic determination, structural transformation, and precision countermeasures.
Since 2023, the proportion of China's exports to the United States in GDP has dropped from 4% in 2018 to 2%, and the economy's "dual circulation" strategy is gradually being implemented. In other words, China no longer relies on the United States, but the United States still relies on China’s resources and markets.
Trump's threat is actually a bluffing "blank bomb". Like his threats to Iran, his border wall promises to Mexico, and his shared bill to NATO, Trump's style is consistent, voice and stage fright。
The American media even created an abbreviation "TACO"-Trump Always Chickens Out. And this time, it was no exception.
What is really worthy of vigilance is not Trump's remarks, but the continuous swing of the US domestic strategy towards China.On the one hand, high-level U.S. officials continue to send signals of moderation in an attempt to maintain technical exchanges and market access.
On the other hand, the Chinese side is constantly testing the bottom line, trying to make concessions in exchange for threats.This "two-handed strategy" instead exposes the anxiety and powerlessness of the US side.
China's strategic path has long been clear. does not proactively create friction, but will never accept coercion. diplomatically maintain reason, economically accelerate the transformation, and militarily steadily enhance scientific and technological autonomy.
Trump can keep shouting, but China only needs one word to let the world know who is really in charge of the pace.
Source: The United States threatens not to buy China's "cooking oil"? Expert: No practical significance Global Network Source: Global Times Author: Ding Yazhi 2025-10-1606:48
CNN: The current tensions between China and the United States could have been avoided. The chief culprit is the Trump administration's expansion of the "entity list" Source: Observer 2025-10-15 17:44:56