Many political commentators in Japan, represented by Shiro Tazaki, were wrong, the financial capital that hoped that Shinjiro Koizumi's prudent fiscal policies would buy stocks in advance, and the Japanese media that conducted a large number of opinion polls showing Koizumi's lead were wrong. 183:164! In the second round of voting in the presidential election of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan, Takashi, who was originally not favored, defeated Shinjiro Koizumi and was elected as the first female president of the Liberal Democratic Party since its founding.

On the 10th, the president of the Self-Democratic Party, CaoÊÐÔçÃç, spoke to the press conference after meeting with the party's headquarters with the party's leader,Õ«ÌÙÌú·ò.

However, the crackdown within the governing group inevitably emerged on the day of the election of the new president of the Democratic Party. Less than a week later, on October 10, the Democratic Party failed to respond positively to the party's demands and evaded the strategy of questioning, eventually causing the 26-year history of the Democratic Union to declare the breakdown on October 10. After pushing the Democratic Party to the opposite side, the situation of the Prime Minister of the Democratic Party was rapidly turned down. In order to become the first female prime minister in Japan's history, the Democratic Party had to pay a very high price to pull up a few right-wing political parties with a seated starting capital.

On October 14, the self-government party convened a two-chamber parliamentary plea meeting, and CaoÊÐÔçÃç explained to the party's parliamentary members the party's departure from the ruling coalition, saying that "to take responsibility for this, apologize to everyone".

On October 10, the new president of the Japanese self-government party, CaoÊÐÔçÃç (right) and the leader of the Japanese self-government party, Ziyu Tifov, held talks in the Japanese parliament.

Mutation of choice.

Just a year ago, High Market Early Smooth also showed very strong competitiveness in the presidential election, pressing the small spring out of the second round of voting, how did it this year, facing the same opponent, but she became the black horse to pursue?

The reason lies in the 2024 House election. The reason why Fumio Kishida resigned as prime minister early at that time was because of the sentiment in Japan to punish the Liberal Democratic Party, which caused a black gold scandal. The core figure in the black gold scandal is actually Shinzo Abe, who has been assassinated and passed away. Although Takashi Saami is not a member of the Abe faction, he benefits more from Abe politically.

In the two presidential elections, the high-market prime minister has always played the flag of the inheritance of Abe's politics. The Abe's members are naturally the high-market prime minister's iron-barrel. But after experiencing the two reversal elections with the punishment involving black money political lawmakers as the main axis, the self-government party's seats in both houses have been reduced, and the Abe's lawmakers have been dropped. In this case, the high-market prime minister's iron-barrel must be reduced compared to last year.

According to the electoral system of the Democratic Party, in the first round, each member of the National Assembly voted 1 point, 295 members of the National Assembly voted a total of 295 points, while the national party votes collected in advance were also a total of 295 points, i.e. the proportion of votes to members of the National Assembly votes was 1:1. If no candidate received more than half of the score in the first round of voting and entered the second round of voting, the choice of the grassroots public opinion can only rely on the local party representatives voting at the election site, the total of 47 in Japan's 47 metropolitan counties, but the count of votes remained unchanged, and the proportion of votes to members of the National Assembly votes changed to 295:47. In this case,

Many media described this Liberal Democratic Party presidential election as "the resurrection of the loser in the 2024 presidential election." All five candidates participated in the last election, and all of them ranked among the top seven in the first round. However, this view ignores the political background and operating mechanism of the Liberal Democratic Party.

From the political ¡°left-and-right¡± theory, the self-government party with ¡°middle-right conservation¡± as the mainstream can probably be said to be the ¡°middle-right¡± mark. In the second round of last year¡¯s presidential election, the confrontation between Shapramou and High-Stock EarlyMoney, like the confrontation between middle-right liberals and right-wing conservatives. Both sides are behind the three former prime ministers, namely Shapramou, the middle-right liberal, Shapramou, and the right-wing conservatives. Though Shapramou appears to be somewhat left-handed in the self-government party, from the overall spectrum of Japanese politics, Shapramou still does not lose the bottom of the self-government party

Liberal Democratic Party President Takashi Saami spoke at a meeting of members of the Liberal Democratic Party and House on October 14. Photo from Japanese media

And this year, not only is Xiao Jinglong is closer to the "middle-right" candidate than Xiao Jinglong, the new festival is closer to the "middle-right" in this "middle-right" to the "middle-right" confrontation, Xiao Jinglong should have gained a greater advantage compared to last year's Xiao Jinglong, after all, the "middle-right" Xiao Jinglong is easier to meet and absorb the votes of other candidates elected in the first round.

According to the model of "Fumio Kishida + Yoshihide Suga vs Taro Aso", as long as Shinjiro Koizumi accepts all of Lin Fangzheng's parliamentary votes, he can get more than half of the 152 votes. Even if all the young and strong members led by Takayuki Kobayashi vote for Takashi Saami, the "center-right" Toshiki Shigeki can still win some of the votes in the first round. If the election situation develops according to this trend, Shinjiro Koizumi will basically be invincible.

The variable appears precisely in the votes of members. In the second round of parliamentary votes, Koizumi did not even hold on to the basic goal of 152 votes and only won 145 votes. On the contrary, it was Takashi Saami who won 149 votes in one fell swoop and successfully attacked. After the election results were released, not only was 85-year-old Taro Aso appointed as vice president of the Liberal Democratic Party, but his brother-in-law Shunichi Suzuki also took over as secretary-general of the Liberal Democratic Party, who was second only to the president. Taro Aso, who has always regarded himself as a "king maker", has certainly contributed to Takashi's election victory, but the Aso faction, which has only 43 members and 50 old Abe faction members, is still not enough to win Takashi's president.

The real driving force behind Takashi's victory in the election was the drastic changes in Japanese public opinion after Trump took office again as US president. In the 2024 House of Representatives election, the Liberal Democratic Party, which lost 56 seats, is naturally the biggest loser, and the winner is the centrist party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, which gained 50 seats. By the Senate election in July this year, the seats of the Constitutional Democratic Party remained unchanged, and the biggest winner was already the far-right populist participating party that followed Trump's example of proposing "Japanese First." Trump's suppression of Japan by holding high the stick of tariffs not only did not trigger opposition among Japanese populists, but inspired them to set off a wave of populism in Japan.

Takaichi sanae, who knew that he was at a disadvantage in the presidential election, paid attention to this trend, and then regarded catering to populism as the key to reversal. The maliciously edited video storm of deer abuse by foreigners not only appeared in Takaichi sanae's campaign speech, but even the reason why Takaichi sanae openly proposed to strictly control foreigners in Japan. The victory of the far-right party in the Senate election and the populist enthusiasm for sanae takaichi in the online world made the originally hesitant members panic, fearing that voting for their opponents would be attacked by populists, and finally made a "choice against their will".

"Making trouble at home"

The self-government party, despite losing control over the two houses of the House of Commons, hasined the ruling party¡¯s position by relying on and cooperating with the Communist Party for 26 years. For the ruling party, ¡°do not be troubled¡± is the basic principle of governing. Unfortunately, the above principle is ineffective for the high market that needs miracles. She has taken a radical struggle without concern for the consequences, putting forward a contradictory policy that attracts the eye. On the one hand, she wants to expand military spending to meet the nationalist¡¯s strong military dreams, and on the other hand, to reduce taxes to favor the people. In order to rationalize her strict foreigners¡¯ claims, she even wants to incite hatred against foreigners.

The reason why scholars and political commentators who are well versed in the operation of Japanese politics is surprised is that, according to common sense, for national stability, the Liberal Democratic Party needs to cooperate with opposition parties in the National Assembly, especially the House of Representatives. Even if Shinjiro Koizumi, who is still inexperienced, is not the most suitable candidate for prime minister, he is still more suitable than Koichi Haraimu to unite with other parties. If he comes to power, he is likely to maintain the situation of co-governance of the LDP behind the scenes. In a certain sense, the collective failure of this prediction is just that everyone did not expect that the Liberal Democratic Party would complete the transition in a "collective suicide" manner.

On the day that takaichi sanae was elected as the new president, huge cracks within the ruling group inevitably emerged. Around a series of right-leaning policies put forward by takaichi sanae during the election campaign, Komeito Party, as a long-term ruling partner of the Liberal Democratic Party, raised three questions and asked takaichi sanae to answer them as soon as possible: First, whether money can be banned from interfering in politics; Second, whether it is possible to guarantee that you will not visit the Yasukuni Shrine after taking office as prime minister; Third, whether the legitimate rights and interests of foreigners can be protected. These three questions point directly to Takaichi sanae's signature policy, and Takaichi sanae's practice of not responding positively to the demands of friendly parties and blindly avoiding doubts eventually led to the breakdown of the ruling coalition.

In fact, there is no shortage of sober politicians within the Liberal Democratic Party. On the same day that Takashi Hayami self-destructed the ruling coalition, Shigeru Ishiba, a rare "learned man" among previous Japanese prime ministers, expressed his prime minister's views on the 80th anniversary of the war, pointing out with profound meaning that it was the narrow nationalism allowed by the government that pushed Japan into that doomed war.

A series of far-right policies, including promoting hatred of foreigners, have destroyed the ruling coalition between the Liberal Democratic Party and the Komeito Party. If Japanese politics continues to overly cater to narrow nationalism, who can guarantee that Shigeru Ishiba's views will not become prophecy?

(Author: Deputy researcher at the Department of World History of Sichuan University, Director of the Chinese Japan Society, part-time researcher at the Japan Korean Research Institute at the National and Regional Research Record Center of the Ministry of Education)

Published in 2025.10.20 total 1208th edition of China News Weekly

Magazine title: Gao Shi Zao Miao's "Opening the Door Black"

Author: Li Yong Fool

Edited by:Ðì·½Çå