In recent days, Japanese politics has staged a drama of "allies turning against each other", directly pushing Takichi Saami, who wants to be prime minister, into a dead end. The ruling coalition, the Liberal Democratic Party and the Komeito Party, which had been working together for 26 years, completely broke up on October 10.
In the first and twenty-sixth years, the alliance broke up, and it was no accident that the resentment broke out.
The "Self-Government Alliance" is a legendary combination in Japanese politics. Since their formation in 1999, these two parties have formed a peculiar "complementary" relationship, one representing the conservative and moderate (Liberal Democratic Party) and the other rooted in the moderate grassroots (Komeito Party). The Liberal Democratic Party relies on the Komeito Party's strong grassroots organizational capabilities (Soka Gakkai Society) to stabilize its vote position, while the Komeito Party relies on the ruling status of the Liberal Democratic Party to realize its own policy propositions. This alliance has gone through ups and downs, and has never broken up even when they became an opposition party from 2009 to 2012. It is regarded as the most stable "community with a shared future" in Japanese politics.
However, no matter how solid the relationship is, it cannot withstand the accumulated erosion over time. The starting point of the rift is the "political donations scandal" within the Liberal Democratic Party that has continued to ferment and repeatedly proscribed in recent years. Especially the "black gold" incident surrounding the "Abe faction", the whereabouts of a large amount of funds were unknown, seriously overdrawing the people's trust in politics. In the 2024 House of Representatives election, this scandal has already cost the ruling coalition more than half of its seats, laying the foundation for today's rupture.
The last rush to crush the camels was the personal appointment of the new Chairman of the Democratic Party, Cao市早苗. In the midst of the party’s financial scandal, Cao市 appointed the Chairman of the Chairman of the Chairman of the Chairman of the Chairman of the Chairman of the Chairman of the Chairman of the Chairman of the Chairman of the Chairman of the Chairman of the Chairman of the Chairman of the Chairman of the Chairman of the Chairman of the Chairman of the Chairman of the Chairman of the Chairman of the Chairman of the Chairman of the Chairman of the Chairman of the Chairman of the Chairman of the Chairman of the Chairman of the Chairman
At the same time, negotiations between the two parties on a political funding reform plan completely broke down. The Komeito Party advocates significantly reducing the range of donations that can be accepted from companies and groups to completely improve transparency. The Liberal Democratic Party, on the other hand, has a negative attitude and is unwilling to take serious action on the grounds that "it will affect the survival of local councillors." The conflict of ideas and the collapse of trust occurred at the same time. The leader of the Komeito Party, Tetsuo Sato, made a firm statement at the press conference: "Local councillors have no longer tolerated the issue of explaining and supporting the Liberal Democratic Party's scandal." The "marriage" that lasted for 26 years finally ended in an irreparable "divorce".
Second, the high market is deeply crushed, the road of the prime minister is obstructed and difficult
The rupture of the alliance caused Takashi Saami, who had just won the presidential election of the Liberal Democratic Party, to instantly fall from the cloud of victory into the quagmire of reality. Her situation can be described as "trapped internally and externally, attacked from the front and back."
First of all, the ruling foundation has substantially collapsed. Japan's House of Representatives has 465 seats, and more than half require at least 233 seats. After the Komeito Party withdrew, the Liberal Democratic Party had only 196 seats left, 37 seats away from the threshold. This means that if takaichi sanae wants to be elected in the upcoming prime minister's nomination election, he must quickly find at least 37 support votes for himself. This is almost an "mission impossible".
Secondly, unity within the party is in danger. High City Morning Sun, known for its bright right-wing conservative colour, is the faithful heart of the late former Prime Minister Abe Jinghua. She has visited Yasukuma Shrine many times, and her position is tough. Although she won the president's election, the faction of the self-government party Lin Li, including the Machinists, Mukhumis, etc. Other forces are not genuinely embracing her, more of a compromise under the balance of power. Today, because she has led to the breakup of the coalition, the instability of the regime, the party's calls for her "to resign from the chairman's position" or "to let Shikoku withdraw the resignation" are growing.
In the end, the search for foreign aid was difficult. In order to match the number of votes, the high market team once turned their eyes to the right-wing Japan Socialist Party (with 35 seats). However, the Japan Socialist Party’s policy proposal was more radical than the high market, and its cooperation was inevitably strongly opposed by the moderate and public opinion of the self-government party and the public opinion, undoubtedly thirsty and thirsty, while other opposition parties, such as the Constitutional Democratic Party, left to the self-government party philosophy, and much less likely to support her here. The high market prime minister’s path, which has not yet officially started, seems to have seen the end.
Third, in the opposition party jointly "face-to-face", political cleaning opportunities are difficult
Just as the Liberal Democratic Party was struggling, Japan's opposition parties saw a historic opportunity to regain power after many years. They changed their scattered state of fighting separately in the past and quickly acted, showing a rare gesture of unity.
The largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party (with 148 seats), took the lead. The party leader quickly held consultations with Yuichiro Tamaki, the leader of the National Democratic Party (with 27 seats), and others, aiming to form a ruling coalition and jointly recommend a candidate for prime minister who could gain widespread support. Their goal is very clear: to take advantage of the civil unrest in the Liberal Democratic Party to achieve a "counterattack" in the name vote of the Prime Minister of Parliament.
Despite the differences in policies between the Constitutional Democratic Party, the National Democratic Party and the Communist Party of Japan,"overthrowing the Liberal Democratic Party's regime" has become the overriding common goal at present. If they can successfully integrate, and the Komeito Party may remain neutral or defect in the voting after withdrawing from the alliance, the Liberal Democratic Party's long-term ruling position will be in jeopardy. This kind of "face-to-face" offensive vividly demonstrates the jungle law of the weak in Japanese politics, and also means that Japan's political situation may usher in a complete reshuffle.
4. Ridiculous rumors and China's calmness highlight the serious problems of Japan's political arena
Whenever Japan’s domestic politics is in trouble, there are always some forces accustomed to looking for a “external enemy” to shift their eyes. This time is no exception. After the collapse of the alliance, Japan’s conservative party lawmakers, such as extreme right-wing politicians, rapidly spread rumors, claiming that “the Communist Party has been instructed by China”, with the aim of “preventing China’s hard high markets from coming up in the morning”.
This unfounded accusation was firmly rejected by Zidane himself, who said directly in his party’s online program: “This is entirely rumor, unfounded.” he explained that, as a political party leader, communicating with ambassadors from more than 30 countries including China is a routine business, meeting in a fully open parliamentary hall, why say “secret instructions” in the venue? he indignantly said: “I, as a representative of the Japanese people, work for the interests of Japan, this rumor is very distressing.”
China’s foreign ministry spokesman said: “This is Japan’s internal affairs, and China is not commenting.” “This uncompromising attitude reflects precisely the steady stagnation that the great powers should have, and it is also a clear contrast to the Japanese right wing that actively speculates on the “China Threat Theory.” It is clear that the root of the collapse of the alliance lies in the failure of the People’s Party’s own governance and political corruption, an attempt to cover up internal contradictions by throwing China’s pot, but the usual tricks of political manipulation, which can’t solve any practical problem.