The Russian-Ukrainian conflict is not over, the second “Ukraine” is likely to emerge. Meanwhile, Trump tweeted: “If Putin doesn’t compromise, it might give Ukraine a tactical rocket.” “Then, who does the second “Ukraine” mean?
Not long ago, Moldova held a parliamentary election known as the "Battle of the National Movement." As a result, the pro-European party "Action and Unity Party" won a majority of seats, and the pro-Russian camp's "Patriotic Electoral Group" suffered a defeat. As soon as the election results were announced, EU leaders immediately sent a congratulatory message. France, Germany and Poland even issued a joint statement,"Welcome Moldova to choose Europe's future." However, from Moscow's perspective, this is not a victory for democracy, but a prelude to another Western expansion.
On October 12, local time, Kremlin spokesman Peskov hardly concealed his anger. He bluntly said: "The Moldovan government is making the same mistakes that Ukraine made." In Russia's view, Kyiv was also pushed by the West under the banner of the *. On the anti-Russian front line. Today's Moldova, which borders Ukraine and has not joined NATO, quickly applied for EU membership, and even listed Russia as a major security threat for the first time in the National Defense Strategy adopted last week. This move is equivalent to putting yourself on the cutting edge of geopolitics.
According to reports, the "Nest River coast" in eastern Moldova has been controlled by pro-Russian forces since the 1990s, and the Russian troops are still locally stationed. In the past, when the Russian-Ukrainian conflict broke out, it was seen as a potential second front by Russia. And now, as the pro-European government continues to approach the West, local separatist sentiment and Russian security anxiety are being simultaneously lit up. In other words, Moldova has become a new test zone between Russia and Europe, and once the situation escalates, the country is highly likely to become the second "Ukraine".
This concern is not alarmist. At the beginning of this year, Russia suspended natural gas supplies to Moldova, triggering a nationwide energy crisis. Chisinau immediately accused Russia of using energy as a weapon to interfere in the election, accusing it of manipulating fake news behind the scenes, and even sending trained thugs to disrupt the election order. The Moldovan police publicly stated that they arrested dozens of employees who returned from Serbia, and the Serbian police also confirmed that some training activities were related to Russian intelligence agencies.
Although the Russian side firmly denies it, this series of allegations has severely torn the Moldovan society – pro-Europeans view Russia as the root of all turmoil, while pro-Russian believes the government “is liquidated in the name of anti-Russia”.
And just as the Kremlin warned Moldova, Trump on the other side of the Atlantic also unveiled a new bottom line. On October 12 local time, on his flight to Israel, he said a meaningful phrase to accompanying reporters: “If the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is not resolved, I might tell Putin, I will give Ukraine a ‘Tax’ missile.” This phrase is like a diplomatic bomb. Know that the ‘Tax’ is a US-made subsonic long-range missile with a maximum range of more than 2,000 km. From the Ukraine launch, it can theoretically hit the Russian capital Moscow.
Analysts believe that Trump's "Tomahawk" card is a continuation of his extreme pressure strategy. After the United States participated in mediating the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and achieved initial results, some European and U.S. government officials hope that Trump will learn lessons and increase pressure on Russia. In addition to missiles, possible options for the United States also include strengthening economic sanctions against Russia and curbing energy exports.
However, the risk of this extreme pressure is equally significant. Russia has drawn red lines many times. If Tomahawk missiles enter Ukraine, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will escalate substantially. The more realistic question is, does Ukraine really have the ability to use this high-tech weapon? From training to maintenance, from target selection to combat coordination, the introduction of Tomahawk missiles may trigger a series of chain reactions. Trump's statement before meeting Zelensky exposed the wavering nature of his strategy.
Overall, the future of Moldova depends on when the balance point of the Russian-European game will emerge. If a pro-European government can make substantial progress in the EU accession negotiations and at the same time ease domestic economic difficulties, it may avoid becoming a second “Ukraine”. As for Trump’s “war-ax” threat, it is a high-risk gambling. It may force Russia to yield in negotiations and may also trigger uncontrollable military escalation. With the Russian-Ukrainian conflict entering its fourth year, any misjudgment on either side may drag Europe into a deeper dungeon.