Japan's political arena has been making a lot of trouble recently, like a political series that is constantly turning around: a resigned prime minister is still embarrassing to "work overtime" in his post, and a female political star who has just won the highest position in the party can't wait for the prime minister's "accession to the throne" moment.
It’s not a coincidence, it looks like a “moderate transition” to power replacement, but it’s really driven by the failure of political mechanisms and the collapse of coalition trust.
When the system itself begins to "drag its feet", it is difficult for individuals to move no matter how much they toss. The question now is, can Japan still withstand the next political shock?
The Passive Long Life.
The role of Sharpomo is like a player stuck by the "stop-key."He wanted to land decently, and as a result was stuck in place by the institutional process.
In 2024, he took office under the reformist label, carrying a symbolic meaning of “change of air.” But the new wind just blown a year less, and the summer 2025 Senate elections poured cold water on him.
The question arose afterwards: the Democratic Party chose a "complete version" of the voting process, and it took 12 days to elect a new president.
Instead, he refused to go, rather than the mechanism did not give him a chance to step down.
Watching his days in office exceed those of his predecessors day by day, Shi Po's "passive retention" has become an irony: a prime minister who has long been rejected by voters has become the "fastest growing term in history" thanks to lengthy procedures and failed political negotiations.
Behind the failure to step down, what is exposed is not someone's ambition, but the dullness of the whole system. It's not that there is no procedure in Japanese politics, but that the procedure itself has become a "blocking point" that hinders efficiency.
Gaoshi Zaomiao's dilemma of paying homage
While Ishiba "couldn't get down", sanae takaichi "couldn't get up" either. This transfer of power seems to be stuck in the middle when passing the baton.
On October 4th, she won the presidential election of the Liberal Democratic Party and became the first female leader in the history of the party. This should have been a historic breakthrough, and she should have taken advantage of the trend to become Japan's first female prime minister. But reality is like a basin of cold water, poured thoroughly.
High City’s line is clear: she is a disciple of Abe and advocates constitutional reform, strong army, and pro-America. These positions are popular among conservatives, but also make her room for cooperation with moderates and other political parties increasingly narrow.
Her first move was to have private talks with the leader of the National Democratic Party, but did not have the first time to visit her old partner, the Communist Party.
This may seem like a simple political arrangement, but it is regarded as "contempt for allies." As a result, on October 10, the Komeito Party directly announced its withdrawal from the ruling coalition, catching her off guard.
Not only that, she also appointed Tanichi Hagio, who was under investigation, to a key position, which made the entire ruling structure even worse.
If you only see her election victory, it may not be comprehensive enough.The real problem is that she hasn’t yet taken the seat of prime minister, and the political mine has stepped a circle.
At one time, the self-democratic party fell to 196 seats in the House of Representatives, and it was still less than half of the majority, and as soon as the public party left, the whole power puzzle dispersed.
Coalition government is unable to
The withdrawal of the Komeito Party was like a domino, which quickly triggered a chain reaction. Gao tried his best to make relations with other political parties, but the opposition party was not vegetarian.
The old leaders of the Constitutional Democratic Party, the National Democratic Party, the Japanese Conservative Party, suddenly began to sit on a table and conspire to “jointly nominate prime minister candidates.”
If it is said that before the high-market early morning can still rely on the traditional advantages of the self-government party steadily rise to power, then now, she is like playing a puzzle, and the result is half found to lack a few key pieces.
In order to succeed, she must not only pull two or three parties in, but also promise a lot of "exchange conditions".
If she compromises, she will be questioned by her own camp for "abandoning the principle"; if she does not compromise, she will be dragged into a deadlock by other parties. Looking at it from this point of view, her path of courting prime minister is even more difficult than choosing a party leader.
Political mechanism stuck is more than just a "Japanese phenomenon"
Japan now looks like a “short-term chaos”, but has actually entered the stage of structural failure.
You can look at this issue from two levels. One is that people's livelihood policies are directly affected: the 2025 fiscal year is coming to an end, and policies such as gasoline tax exemptions and high school tuition exemptions that should have been implemented long ago have all been shelved in the quagmire of the political situation.
The other is the diplomatic vacuum: Trump is about to visit Japan, and the APEC and ASEAN summits are also filled, but who will represent Japan?
If these problems are just "delayed online", then the fragmentation of Japanese political parties is more like "systematic reloading".
The number of seats of far-right participating parties in the Senate has skyrocketed, and the boundaries between them and traditional political parties have become increasingly blurred. Multi-party competition sounds like a deepening of *, but at the executive level, it is more like a spike in governance costs.
It looks like “inspiring pluralism,” but really pushing it is a build-up of people’s emotions about traditional political disappointment. Every political party is emphasizing its “uncompromising” and the result is that no one can compromise, and policies are naturally difficult to advance.
A country's "political stagnation" is also a signal of regional unrest
Don’t see this political impasse confined to Tokio’s Yokohama, with its volatility spreading throughout East Asia.
First, regional cooperation is affected. China, Japan and South Korea often have frictions because of historical, trade, security and other issues, and Japan's political instability will discount its participation in regional multilateral platforms.
For example, at this year’s APEC meeting, it would be difficult for Japan to make a clear voice on regional issues if the prime minister candidate was not determined.
Moreover, it is not a good thing for China-Japan relations, either.If the high-ranking prime minister came to power, it is highly likely that he would continue to make strong statements on China-related issues in order to stabilize right-wing voters.
Japanese politicians are not unfamiliar to this operation of "internal affairs pulling out foreign aid."If she ruled in a weak coalition government, the motivation to shift pressure to the outside is stronger.
In the end, Japan itself may fall into the circle of “short-lived governments”, with a new prime minister unable to sustain even a full cycle of rule, and the credibility of diplomatic negotiations will be greatly reduced.
It is too one-sided to say that it is "ineffective politics", and there is a sense of powerlessness behind it that it is difficult to establish a new path after the failure of the old mechanism. It's not that Japan doesn't want to reform, but that under the multiple attacks of aging system, split political parties and voter anxiety, the path of reform is getting narrower and narrower.
ended
Shigeru Ishiba can't go, takaichi sanae can't get up, and Japanese politics is like a train stuck halfway. It can't move forward and it's difficult to retreat. It's not so much the dilemma of individuals as the whole system is "stuck". Politics is not as simple as actors changing lines. The weak mechanism is what really worries people.
For neighbors, a Japan with an uncertain direction and a chaotic rhythm is actually harder to cope with than a strong and anticipated opponent.The future is uncertain, but the political ecology of Japan is at a turning point.
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