► Wen Observer Network Lai Jiaqi

The "shutdown" of the U.S. government led to the suspension of the release of official economic data, and its impact was not limited to the United States, but also spilled over to other countries that relied on these data.

Reuters reported on October 15 that many countries, including Japan, usually use data released by the United States to judge the trend of the world's largest economy, thereby assessing their currency, trade and inflation prospects. Now, officials from many countries are warning that if the U.S. government shutdown continues, it will become more difficult for them to formulate policies in a "data blind spot" and the risk of policy mistakes will increase, especially as countries are busy responding to the Trump administration's reshaping of global trade order.

Commissioner for Monetary Policy at the Bank of England (MPC), Catherine Mann, compared the progressive weakening of the pound, saying these policy changes could weaken the dollar¡¯s position or erode the Federal Reserve¡¯s independence, ¡°although it¡¯s not urgent, but it¡¯s indeed a ¡®white dwarf¡¯ slowly rooting the roots.¡±

Even if the data will be resumed later, this incident, coupled with recent U.S. pressures on the Federal Reserve and the dismissal of the Director of Labor Statistics, reflects deeper issues in U.S. governance and data reliability.

The American White House.

At 0:00 local time on October 1, the U.S. federal government "shut down" again after nearly seven years. Hundreds of thousands of federal employees will be forced to take unpaid leave, some public services will be suspended or delayed, and the release of economic data will be affected.

"This is a serious problem, and we want it to be resolved as soon as possible." Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda addressed the issue at a press conference at the start of the U.S. government shutdown. He pointed out that the Bank of Japan is facing a difficult choice when to resume raising interest rates, and the lack of U.S. economic data will complicate this decision.

Another Japanese official was even more strident, telling Reuters,"This is a joke.(Federal Reserve Chairman) Powell has always said that Fed policies depend on data, but now there is no data to rely on."

Catherine Mann, a member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, said that questions about U.S. data and disputes over the independence of the Federal Reserve will not directly affect the Bank of England's policy discussions like trade policy changes. After all, adjustments in trade policy will directly affect UK prices and export prospects.

However, she noted that the gradual weakening of the pound¡¯s position was a long process driven by multiple factors, and that these ¡°white ants¡± powers eroded the pound¡¯s core position a little bit. Those policy changes that could weaken the dollar¡¯s position or erode the Federal Reserve¡¯s independence, ¡°although not urgent, are indeed ¡°white ants,¡± slowly eroding the roots.¡±

The Autumn Annual Meeting of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank was held in Washington, D.C. on October 14-17, Reuters said that in a world continuously plagued by long-term challenges such as the conflict in Russia, the Middle East and climate change, President Trump¡¯s global strategy and governance performance, and the government shutdown that now leads to official economic information disruption, could be the focus of discussion.

The U.S. economy is about $30 trillion, accounting for a quarter of the global economy.While the shutdown may end at any time and the data release may be resumed at any time, this event, along with previous attempts by Trump to strengthen control of institutions outside the White House, pressure on the U.S. Federal Reserve, and the dismissal of the Director of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics for unhappy employment reports, all reflect deeper problems with U.S. governance and data reliability.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned in its latest World Economic Outlook report on 14 December that ¡°continued political pressure on policy-makers could erode public confidence in their duties.¡± Pressure on technology-makers responsible for collecting and releasing data will also weaken public and market confidence in official statistics, significantly increasing the difficulty of central banks and governments to formulate policies.

Not all data has disappeared after the U.S. government¡¯s ¡°stop-down¡±. The Federal Reserve is still gathering economic status through its vast information network because of its self-funding, uninfluenced by the government¡¯s shutdown. At the same time, private data services agencies also offer alternatives. Central banks have learned to stack these unofficial data together and are reluctant to use for short-term research.

The Trump speech.

"It is true that monthly data in the United States is discussed frequently, but it has never been a decisive factor in other central banks 'decisions." Adam Posen, director of the Peterson Institute for International Economics in the United States, said that the U.S. government shutdown and the turmoil at the Bureau of Labor Statistics have indeed "led to doubts about U.S. governance capabilities and data reliability.""This kind of suspicion is very important. It will ultimately affect countries 'reserve management and monetary decisions, and increase expectations of fluctuations in the dollar market."

Reuters pointed out that if the focus of the autumn annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank this spring was the uncertainty brought about by Trump's high tariffs and protectionist policies, then now the focus of attention of countries has shifted to how enterprises, countries and consumers adapt to the new pattern.

According to the latest IMF report, as of September, the global economic outlook had been "significantly but not significantly affected by policy shifts." The agency lowered its global growth forecast by 0.5 percentage points to 2.8% in April, but its latest forecast has been raised back to 3.2%.

However, with the appearance of "information black holes" in the U.S. data, which accounts for about one-quarter of the global economy, the global economic outlook will become more and more blurred if the shutdown continues.

Robert Kahn, global macro director at Eurasia Group, a U.S. political risk consulting firm, said that there is still a lot of scattered information available for reference, and policymakers from various countries are investing more energy in collecting micro data and market rumors,"but how to integrate this information and how the market will interpret it remain key uncertainties. The longer time drags on, the uncertainty adds up, and the higher the risk of error."

Ran Shorrer, an associate professor of economics at Pennsylvania State University, told Fortune magazine on Thursday that the biggest advantage of official statistics is its comparability, "the only one we can contrast between different years," and once this historical corner is lost, it is difficult to judge whether alternative data is still reliable when the economic environment changes.

Extended reading

American: China will paralyze the U.S. economy tomorrow but the United States cannot do anything

¡°We are still playing ordinary chess, and China has entered a high-level chess club,¡± said Lisa Tobin, former director of China affairs at the National Security Council.

Medium and heavy rare earths, superhard materials, lithium batteries... China's series of counter-measures this week caught the Trump administration off guard, triggered a plunge in US stocks, and even shocked many western media and observers. Analysts believe that China's move this time can be called a "subtle demonstration of power". By using both "carrots and sticks", on the one hand, it demonstrates its ability to "stick the neck", and on the other hand, it also releases its willingness to talk about supply chain issues.

There are Chinese scholars who directly say that these countermeasures prove that China is very confident and powerful, and also warn other countries "not to sacrifice Chinese interests for the sake of the United States". and U.S. industry people regret that, despite the implementation of restrictions on rare-earth exports, China has not yet started in the fields of biotechnology, pharmaceuticals, etc., China will be able to paralyze the U.S. economy tomorrow, and the U.S. can do nothing.

¡°A wonderful show of power.¡±

Political News Network said in an October 11 commentary article that the Chinese side introduced the broadest scope of rare earth export control measures so far. Unlike before, the new regulation not only allows China to restrict the export of rare earth raw materials and magnets, but also covers any equipment containing rare earth elements. Since all kinds of products from Apple phones, electric car engines to fighter jet sensors are inseparable from China's rare earth, this provision actually gives China a potential "veto" on most of the world's manufacturing fields.

Everett Eisenstadt, who served as deputy assistant to the president for international economic affairs in the first term of the Trump administration, said that China is showing its strength and showing the world that it has the ability to "get stuck" in key areas of global trade.

China's countermeasures once left U.S. President Trump out of control, the latter even again issued tariff threats.In the meantime, the U.S. stock fell sharply on the 10th, and the standard Pew 500 index fell by more than 2%, recording the largest single-day drop since April.

Former Trump administration officials pointed out that China's move was an "exquisite display of power" that highlighted the widening gap between China's long-term strategy and the Trump administration's more improvised strategies.

"We are still playing regular chess, and China has entered a high-level game," Lisa Tobin, the former director of China affairs at the US National Security Council, described it.

On August 26, in Inner Mongolia, the visitors attended the fifth China-Mongolia Exhibition to see the exhibition of rare-earth iron minerals in the form of meteorites.

The article pointed out that Trump has long regarded trade as the core criterion to measure the success or failure of Sino-US relations. Some former U.S. government officials believe that this perspective may lead people to ignore broader technological and security interests.

A former Trump administration official who asked for anonymity said: "Last time (when dealing with related issues), we had clearer considerations and plans on the balance between economic issues and national security issues. But now, I feel that the government is only solving the current A crisis more often, lacking more macro ideological guidance and strategic vision."

In February this year, Trump signed an executive order requiring all departments to expand domestic mineral production capacity "to the greatest extent possible." But even U.S. allies admit that it will be years before new mines are put into production.

An anonymous U.S. practitioner in the rare earths related industry admitted that the United States relies extremely heavily on other countries for resource procurement, as if it is addicted. No one knows when it will be possible to quit addiction and actually start solving the problem.

¡°To be honest, the problem has been around for 20 years and people don¡¯t even realize how bad our situation is,¡± he added.

Politico News Network noted that while China is showing its influence, it is also sending signals to ease tensions.

A spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce of China said on the 12th that China's export control is not a ban on exports, and that compliance with regulations will be permitted before the announcement of the measures, China has notified relevant countries and regions through the bilateral export control dialogue mechanism.

Mark Busch, a scholar who has provided trade policy advice to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative and the Department of Commerce, said that China is using "carrot and stick" this time. "What China means is to let us ensure the stability and security of the supply chain in a long-term, systematic manner, rather than piecemeal manner."

Without this cooperation approach, trade frictions will further escalate, according to the article, given the continued U.S. reliance on China in terms of industrial raw materials and consumer goods imports, which could have serious consequences for the U.S. economy.

¡°Rare-earth export controls are one of the key steps China may take, and they are now taking action,¡± said Cameron Johnson, a partner at Shanghai consultancy Tidalwave Solutions, ¡°China has not yet taken similar measures in the fields of medicine, biotechnology or chemistry, and if China takes action in these fields tomorrow, the U.S. economy may be paralyzed, and we can¡¯t do it.¡±

China has introduced the most extensive rare earth export control measures so far.

"There is a fundamental difference in the perception of competition between China and the United States."

A new round of trade tensions between the US and China was expected by many Westerners, after all, there are reports that the US-China summit is expected to be held soon.

However, the New York Times issued an article on October 11 pointing out that in China's view, the recently introduced measures are just a response to the suppression of the United States. After all, the United States says one thing and does another, while verbally claims to uphold goodwill, but in fact it continues to increase technical restrictions on China.

The article also believes that the new round of trade tensions shows that there are fundamental differences in the definitions of competition between China and the United States. In Trump's view, issues such as trade and technology can be handled separately, that is to say, the United States expects to push the two countries to reach a major trade agreement while continuously escalating its technological restrictions on China.

But in China's eyes, trade and technological issues are part of the "all-round containment of China by the United States" campaign.

At present, U.S. domestic politics is in turmoil and the government is in a stagnant state.Al the U.S. has previously pledged to gradually get rid of its dependence on rare earth in China, the prospects for achieving this goal are still far away.

"China certainly knows that Trump will respond strongly and has not underestimated him," said Wang Yiwei, a professor at the School of International Relations at Renmin University of China."But in many areas, China still has advantages."

He pointed out that China may hope to use this influence to push Trump to reach a broader agreement on other issues of Sino-US relations, rather than just the trade field.

At the same time, the article stated that this may also be China sending a message to other countries and regions such as the European Union, hoping that they will not underestimate their own strength.

¡°This move shows that China is very confident and powerful,¡± Wang said, ¡°and (other countries) don¡¯t have to fear, don¡¯t sacrifice China¡¯s interests for the sake of the United States.¡±

On October 10, U.S. President Donald Trump delivered a speech at the White House Oval Office.

The Financial Times also noted China's harsh counterattack.The media commentary on the 11th said that China's large-scale export control measures shocked the White House, and Trump's tariff threats also excited some U.S. hawks - described by a U.S. official as "like celebrating Christmas ahead."

Dennis wilder, a former CIA expert on China, said that Trump's response was just in line with China's expectations, that is, an emotional response.

"Trump feels shameless and must take action to deal with the criticism of hardliners," Wilder said. China must know how Trump will react. Raised the ante in this big gamble. Will Trump choose to fold, or keep betting?

Willy Rayne, a law firm partner and former senior Commerce official in Trump¡¯s first term, Nazak Nikahta, believes that no matter what Trump chooses, China is unlikely to retreat.

¡°Some think it¡¯s just a negotiation, but they totally misunderstood the Chinese side,¡± Nikahta said, ¡°this time China won¡¯t compromise with the threat.¡±

However, Wang Wen, dean of Renmin University of China, said that the new round of tensions will eventually be resolved through negotiations.

¡°China¡¯s countermeasures have an advantage that will eventually push the United States back to the negotiating table,¡± Wang said, adding that ¡°China has become accustomed to the American ¡®paper tiger¡¯ role.¡±

A spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of Commerce emphasized on the 12th that for a long time, the United States has generalized national security, abused export controls, adopted discriminatory practices against China, and implemented unilateral long-arm jurisdictional measures on many products such as semiconductor equipment and chips. There are more than 3,000 items on the US control list, while there are only more than 900 items on the China export control list. The United States has been using the minimum content rule of export control for a long time, as low as 0%. The relevant measures taken by the United States have seriously damaged the legitimate rights and interests of enterprises, seriously impacted the international economic and trade order, and seriously undermined the security and stability of the global production and supply chain.

The spokesman reiterated that the threat of high tariffs is not the right way to deal with China. For the tariff war, China's position is consistent, we are not willing to fight, but we are not afraid to fight. China urges the United States to correct the wrong practices as soon as possible, take the key consensus of the two heads of state call as the lead, safeguard the difficult consultation results, continue to play the role of the Sino-U.S. economic and trade consultation mechanism, on the basis of mutual respect and equal consultation, solve their concerns through dialogue, properly manage differences, safeguard Sino-U.S. economic and trade relations stability, healthy and sustainable development.