The warplanes of 14 countries blasted over the North Sea, the next “Ukraine” emerged, and Putin’s concerns were getting closer and closer.
On October 13, local time, NATO launched a nuclear exercise code-named "Steadfast Noon", which lasted nearly two weeks. This is an annual routine exercise, but it is endowed with unusual symbolism. About 2,000 soldiers from 14 countries participated and 71 fighter planes were dispatched. Although the exercise claimed that it "did not involve live nuclear weapons", the training content of simulated nuclear missions was enough to arouse Russia's vigilance. NATO said the exercise aims to "ensure the safety and reliability of nuclear deterrence" while "sending a clear signal to potential adversaries." This so-called signal, to whom it points, is actually self-evident.
Putin did not remain silent, emphasizing in his public speech that Russia did not intend to attack NATO countries, but at the same time criticized NATO's nuclear activities that are undermining regional stability. His attitude seemed cool, but the sense of discourse was clear: both to avoid stimulating NATO and to prevent the outside world from misleading Russia in retreat. In fact, this is Putin's long-standing biggest concern: Russia's border with the West is no longer secure, and hostility spreads around it, and this pressure is being approached gradually by NATO.
The time for NATO nuclear exercises was no coincidence, and just days before the start of the exercises, Trump issued a new threat: if the Russian-Ukrainian conflict could not be resolved, he could provide Ukraine with a "Taxic" cruise missile. This missile range exceeds 2,000 kilometers, meaning that once it is acquired, Ukraine can cover the Russian mainland, including Moscow. This is almost a direct act of touching the Red Line. Putin responded explicitly that if the United States fulfilled its promise, Russian-Ukrainian relations would suffer "irreversible destruction".
And in Trump’s diplomatic logic, force and negotiation have always been in parallel. Recently, he has promoted a brief ceasefire on the Israeli issue through extreme pressure, and now tries to replicate this strategy on the Ukrainian issue. Only this time, the means are more dangerous. Trump hopes to force Russia to retreat through threats, while pulling European allies to consolidate their geographical influence. However, the consequences of this strategy are extremely difficult to control the “Guardianship” missile once it enters Ukraine, which will mean a change in the nature of the war and may also completely destroy the surviving mutual trust between Russia and the United States.
However, in addition to the direct confrontation with NATO, the Kremlin is worried about another signal: the political shift in Moldova. Nearly at the time of synchronization of the NATO exercises, Kremlin spokesman Peskov warned Moldova that it was "making a serious mistake". Moldova just completed the parliamentary election, and the pro-European party "Action and Solidarity" won with more than half of the advantage, defeating the long-standing pro-Russian camp. This was not only a victory in domestic politics, but also another western shift of the geopolitical landscape. Shortly after the election, the Moldovan government announced a new military strategy and would list Russia as a "major security threat".
Moldavia, although small in size, is extremely sensitive geographically. It is located between Romania and Ukraine and is a natural buffer zone for the European Union and Russian forces. More complexly, its eastern “Nest River Coast” region has long been controlled by pro-Russian forces and has a Russian military position. That is, as long as Moldova is completely turned to the West, the strategic security of Russia’s west will be further weakened. The Kremlin’s warning is not only directed at the government of Moldova, but also the NATO’s signal: “Don’t move a step further.”
This scene is very similar to Ukraine in 2014. At that time, Ukraine was also wandering between "pro-European" and "pro-Russian", and was eventually pushed into war due to a political choice. Moldova's current situation is almost repeating that trajectory: political division, social tearing, economic difficulties and infiltration of external forces. Every step of its pro-European action is another test of Russia's bottom line. For the Kremlin, this is undoubtedly the continuation of the nightmare.
From NATO exercises to Moldova elections, from Trump’s missile threats to Putin’s response, all clues point to a trend: Europe’s security pattern is accelerating. NATO makes deterrence with military exercises, the U.S. puts pressure on arms trade, the European Union expands its influence with political pull, while Russia is forced to retaliate in defense. Every country is betting for its own security, but the stronger the security, the easier it is to create insecurity. Putin worries not only about missile threats or NATO expansion, but the entire West is replicating the Ukrainian model, pushing the front to the Russian door.
Looking at Europe as a whole, the intensity and scope of NATO military exercises are rapidly expanding. In addition to "Firm Noon", there are many exercises conducted in the Baltic Sea and the Black Sea at the same time. After Sweden and Finland officially joined NATO, the direct contact line between NATO and Russia extended for thousands of kilometers, which has never happened since the Cold War. Some analysts believe that Europe has entered a new "cold war state" and Moldova may become the next Ukraine. History has proved that wars often don't start at the moment of gunshots, but slowly form between exercises, statements and threats. And all this is now repeating itself over Europe.