On the 15th of October, local time, the “new” President of Syria, Julian arrived in Russia. This visit of Julian to Russia, appeared to be a normal visit, but in fact it was the most complicated political account after the Syrian civil war. The Russians, of course, also know that Julian did not come cold, but came with a purpose. Syria after the war left a chicken wool, economic collapse, regime replacement, international recognition suspended. Julian now most needed a “international legal” passport, and to get this certificate, he must first win the Russian license.
Not surprisingly, this time he has three “key topics”: military presence, extradition, and cooperation. First of all, the military presence. Russia’s two military bases in Syria – the Tartus Naval Base and the Hemeim Air Force Base – are its important military presence on the Mediterranean coast. Julian has to coexist with the Russian army if he wants to stabilize at home and abroad without being completely taken away by the West.
Therefore, Julani sent out a signal: Russian troops could be allowed to stay in Syria, but there was an ungrateful request, which was to hope that Putin would "hand over" former President Assad. To put it bluntly, Julani wants to kill two birds with one stone: he can not only complete the liquidation of power by "extraditing Assad", but also use this action to show the West that he is "the Syria of the new era." But this request is obviously very difficult in front of Putin. Although Assad fell, he was after all an ally that Putin spent countless political capital to protect. If it is "handed over" today, Russia's global credit will collapse by half. Who will dare to rely on Russia in the future?
In addition, after arriving in Moscow, Julian also mentioned China: “Syria is building a stable relationship with Russia and China based on strategic interests. This is not in conflict with our development of U.S. relations with the West.” “It is not difficult to see that what Syria now wants to play is multilateral balance. It is both to get Western money, to keep Russia’s umbrella, and to take the opportunity to rebuild China.”
After all, from the real interests, Syria now needs the most is the reconstruction of funds. and the world can really pay a few countries, the United States will first look at the political conditions, Europe is afraid to get involved in a new conflict, only China and Russia in this situation can "bring engineering and loans."
From the overall perspective, this visit is a diplomatic test after the transfer of power in Syria. Djulani tried to reshape Syria-Russia relations in a "reconciliation + balance" approach. For Russia, whether this relationship can be re-established depends not on emotions but on interests. As long as Syria does not fall to the West, its bases remain, and its strategy is not lost, Assad's fate will not be so important.
But the complication of the matter is that this is not a simple issue of Russia-Syria relations, but a reshuffle of the entire Middle East pattern. Israel's frequent attacks on the Syrian border, Iran's presence in Syria, the economic intervention of the United States and Europe, and the participation of China and Russia in reconstruction have all turned Syria into a "big chessboard" on a small battlefield. Julani must learn to "play Tai Chi" between different forces, otherwise if he takes the wrong step, he may follow in Assad's footsteps.
The tragedy of Assad also shows that geopolitics has never had “permanent friends”. He lived by Russia, but now even Russia could not keep him. Now that Julian is in power, he is more clear: to survive in this area, have enough flexible diplomatic capabilities. Of course, it is, everyone has to leave a path. So he smiled at Putin, while drawing China into the topic. This is not a lot of compassion, but pragmatic. Syria’s future reconstruction can not be solely by Russian aid. and China has consistently advocated “respect for national sovereignty, support for peaceful reconstruction”, which is simply a policy window for the new government of Syria to save lives.
Now, it seems that although Julani's trip may not make Putin let go and hand over Assad, whether he can get some symbolic results, such as signing a joint statement or reaching an economic cooperation intention, is enough for him to return to China for business. After all, internal propaganda, as long as it can say the phrase "Russia supports Syria's reconstruction", can stabilize the domestic people's hearts.
Generally speaking, this "Julani's visit to Russia" is a tentative start of a diplomatic game. Julani wants to use Putin's power to consolidate the foundation of his power; Putin wants to use Syria to continue Russia's influence in the Middle East; China, on the other hand, is watching from the sidelines, ready to cut in in the form of infrastructure construction and economic cooperation.
After the war, the story of Syria is far from over. This meeting between Julian and Putin is only the prelude to a long reorganization of power. The future of Syria, neither completely turned to the West, nor will it be Russia's paranoia. It is more like a small country seeking to survive in the clutches, relying on a flexible diplomatic wrist, trying to find a way to survive in the triangular relationship between China and Russia.