The provisional allocation bill has not been passed, the U.S. government continues to close, losers have emerged, Trump¡¯s revenge on China has come.

On October 14, local time, the U.S. Senate failed to advance the Republican-proposed provisional allocation bill, which took 60 votes to enter the next vote, but eventually got only 49 votes in favour and 45 votes against.

In an interview with Fox Business Channel, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bescent said that "the situation is getting worse and worse", and the government shutdown not only affects financial operations, but also affects the real economy. In order to ensure the payment of military pay, the federal government had to suspend the payment of wages to other federal employees and employees of service agencies, including museums affiliated to the Smithsonian Institution and the National Zoo.

Republican House Speaker Johnson accused Democrats of causing key service shutdowns, saying government shutdowns could have been avoided and that Democrats were ¡°making political tricks.¡± Democratic leader Jeffries replied that Democrats were willing to negotiate but Republicans were ¡°not cooperating¡± on healthcare issues.

At the same time, Trump is also adding chaos, taking advantage of the government's closure to lay off large-scale layoffs, and some layoffs are concentrated in "areas that tend to the Democratic Party". According to the Washington Post and other media reports, the White House has launched an inter-departmental layoff plan, and the first batch of about 4,200 federal employees will be laid off, involving major departments such as the Department of Health and Human Services, the Department of Treasury and the Department of Education.

In this regard, US Vice President Vance made it clear that the longer the shutdown lasts, the greater the layoffs. Although some layoffs are painful, the responsibility should be attributed to the Democratic Party. The Democratic Party criticized the government for using federal employees as political pawns. From this perspective, the shutdown of the US government may continue for some time.

However, the U.S. party struggle led to government shutdowns, which were paid by ordinary people and employees relying on federal wages. On the one hand, the U.S. government shutdowns have forced workers to take temporary leave in Washington and across the country. With the shutdowns extending, federal workers, including thousands of House assistants, will be unable to receive wages, which is gradually approaching the longest-running government shutdowns in history. On the other hand, U.S. farmers¡¯ assistance and national flood insurance programs are also facing shutdowns, and key services that millions of people rely on are paralyzed.

Moreover, due to U.S. tariff threats and trade restrictions, China suspended the procurement of soybeans from the U.S. and shifted to imports from South American countries. With the arrival of the harvest season, U.S. soybeans faced the risk of losing the main export market, and pressured the government to demand re-exportation. However, alternative markets are difficult to fill the gap in the short term.

In the face of this situation, Trump not only failed to solve the problem from the root, but also pointed his head to China. On October 14, local time, he said on social media that China "deliberately did not purchase American soybeans", considered it "economically hostile behavior", and said it was considering stopping cooperation with China in the field of oil and other trade.

In fact, Trump's threat has little impact on China. The edible oil he mentioned is mainly waste edible oil, which is used in biofuel production. The actual sources are mostly frying oil and kitchen oil-water separators recycled by catering companies. In other words, it is gutter oil. Although the amount of used edible oil imported by the United States has increased rapidly since 2020, from less than 90,000 tons to more than 1.36 million tons in 2023, most of which comes from China.

It is worth mentioning that such raw materials are highly substitutable, China can be supplemented through domestic recycling or other exporters, with limited impact on Chinese production and markets in the short term. Therefore, Trump threatens China with this, the actual effect is limited, China's response capacity is strong and the threat is difficult to produce substantial impact. Moreover, China's position on trade issues is clear. The Ministry of Commerce spokesman stressed that China supports the solution of the problem through consultations based on equality, respect and reciprocity.