Trump’s rumor of imposing 100% tariffs just came out, and the world was shouting “the tariff war is coming again.” but today we must say: from China’s escalation of rare earth control in October 2025, to the U.S. reintroduction of the software ban, this game has long jumped out of the category of “earn a few more money” – it is a life-deadline that will determine the next half-century, who will formulate global technology, industry, and trade rules.
Do you think China and the United States are competing for import and export quotas? Wrong. When China says that "products containing 0.1% of China's rare earths are banned from being sold to the United States," and when the United States is stuck with EDA software, it is essentially saying: "Follow my rules, or don't play." Whoever wins will make the world follow his own standards. This is the real key.
The tariff card cheats yourself first: it is Americans who suffer from a 100% tax increase
As soon as Trump announced that he would impose a 100% tariff, the whole world felt that the tariff war in 2018 was coming again, but this time the situation was different.
At the time of the last round of tariffs, U.S. consumers had already borne 22% of the cost, and if the new tariffs were to land, by the end of the year this proportion would rise to 55%, while enterprises would only be borne 22%.
The Yale University also calculated that this year, an average U.S. household spends more than $2,400, a pair of shoes, a pair of clothes could increase by 40% and 38%, respectively, and the most money-free households burden the most – which is a trade war, obviously taxing their own people.
What's even more ironic is that the United States 'own inflation is no longer able to withstand it. In August, the core PCE price index rose 2.9% year-on-year, and Goldman Sachs said tariffs would have to push this figure to 3%. In July, the producer price index surged 0.9% month-on-month, the largest increase in three years.
Merchants have long passed on tariff costs to consumers, and even local products have followed suit. Those categories with import dependence exceeding 50% have risen the most crazily. But does the United States really dare to decouple from China? An F-35 needs 400 kilograms of rare earths, and a nuclear submarine needs 4.6 tons. 90% of the processing links of these rare earths are in China's hands, and heavy rare earths depend entirely on China.
China just upgraded controls in October, "including 0.1% of China's rare earth products are not allowed to sell to the United States", as a result of the U.S. military F-35's block 4 upgrading directly pushed to 2031, when the six-generation Chinese aircraft should be loaded.
The weakness becomes hard: China has blocked the road of "stuck neck"
The United States originally thought that it could rely on software to block China's neck. As a result, at the Bay Core Exhibition on October 15, Xinkai Company directly came up with hard tools-two completely self-made EDA software that could replace all the products of international giants such as Synopsis Technology.
Don't think this thing is inconspicuous. Chip design can't be played without EDA. In the past, 70% of China's market was occupied by foreign companies. Now domestic ones can not only keep up, but also be better than them: 100 people can draw schematics online at the same time. Diagram, 20 people work together to design PCB, which is 30% more efficient than foreign ones, and the development cycle can be 40% shorter. More than 20,000 engineers have tried it and said it works.
More importantly, this software is compatible with all domestic operating systems and databases, and the ecosystem is set up. If the United States wants to cut off EDA, there is no way.
The United States in November to embark on a software ban, but China has already been prepared, Ikea technology and the Internet of Beethoven in June will gather together to investigate, Beethoven's CAx tools can handle the structure, electromagnetic various simulations, can also use the data management platform, just fill the manufacturing enterprises "soft vulnerability".
Now China's core industrial software market can rise 19.1% in five years, from 3.18 billion to 76.5 billion, the U.S. ban in turn became a catalyst for domestic substitution.
Looking at rare earths, China not only controls exports, but also bans technology. The United States has invested 400 million yuan in MPMaterials to build production capacity, and it will be able to produce 1,000 tons of neodymium iron boron magnets in 2025, which is less than 1% of China's production in 2018. Heavy rare earth separation is even difficult to understand commercial production.
In the past, the United States took the technology card for us, and now China has blocked the "roads" in key areas, and the situation of attacking has completely turned around.
No cards to play: No one listens to American rules
The foundation of the competition between China and the United States has never been the profit of import and export, but "whose rules have to be followed". In the past, the United States relied on technological monopoly to have the final say, but now the cards in its hand are useless.
As soon as they called for a software ban, China's EDA broke through; if they wanted to replace rare earth, money would be spent on production capacity, and allies would not be trustworthy-Australia's mines would have to be sent to China for refining, and Japan's magnets cannot be made without China's technology.
What is even more ruthless is China's counterattack. In October, it launched 10 moves in just 72 hours. Qualcomm was directly investigated by antitrust because it failed to declare its secret acquisition of Autotalks.
You know, 46% of Qualcomm's revenue depends on the Chinese market. In 2015, it was fined 6 billion yuan. Now, according to the new anti-monopoly law, it can fined up to 10% of its sales in China. Billions of tickets are waiting. Does it dare to bow?
Giants such as Nvidia and Google are also on the investigation list. What China uses legal means to beat is actually the rule hegemony of the United States: in the past, you said who could enter the market and what technology to use, but now you have to follow our rules.
The United States wants to draw allies to form a small circle, but companies are not stupid. If Qualcomm loses the China market, its revenue will be cut in half;Lynas uses US subsidies to build a factory, but it will still be inseparable from China's refining technology.
Goldman Sachs soon understood that the U.S. raised taxes and imposed bans for half a day, saying that it ultimately disrupted the global supply chain, and ultimately left its own people to bear the cost.
When China can set standards in key areas such as EDA, rare earths, and industrial software, and when the United States either fails to play or beats itself, the winner or loss of this rule battle will be obvious-it's not that the United States has no cards to play, it's that no one listens to its old rules.
This difficulty has long been not a matter of "who earns more", but in the next half a century, who will determine the rule of life and death.
The United States also holds on to the old method of tariffs and prohibitions, and China has completely broken down in science and technology, industry, and rules.
As long as the F-35 upgrade cannot catch up with China's six-generation aircraft, as long as U.S. companies have to adhere to China's anti-monopoly rules, we will understand that the increase of taxes 100% is really nothing, losing the right to formulate rules is the most deadly.
Source of information:
Science and Technology Daily-Break the monopoly! National EDA design software was released. What are the highlights?
Gansu Market Supervision-From rare earths to Qualcomm, China has hit 10 punches in a row in 72 hours! US media: This is more deadly than tariffs