Preliminary

Below is a summary of the latest information on the conflict in Russia and the statements of U.S. Secretary of Defence Hegel:

Statements and possible actions of the U.S. Defense Minister

- U.S. Defense Secretary Hagerseth said after the NATO meeting in Brussels that if the Russia-Ukraine conflict cannot be ended in the short term, the United States and its allies will take necessary measures to make Russia pay the price for its continued aggression.

-He stressed that the United States and its allies believe that the most effective deterrent to contain Russia is through NATO and Ukraine's self-defense capabilities.

2. Trump's tough attitude and the Tomahawk missile program

Trump has recently repeatedly expressed disappointment with Putin and threatened to provide Ukraine with "Tax" cruise missiles, which could escalate the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.

- The Russian Federation Security Council Vice Chairman Medvedev warned that providing Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine may have serious consequences, especially since nuclear warheads are difficult to distinguish from conventional warheads during flight, and Russia may be forced to take corresponding nuclear strikes.

State of the peace negotiations in Russia

The prospects for the current Russian-Ukrainian negotiations are dim, the two sides are unsettling on the battlefield, and the space for negotiations has been greatly compressed.

The analysis suggests that the short-term conflict in Ukraine may continue, and there may be a limited short-term ceasefire or partial agreement in the future, but the signing of a comprehensive peace treaty may wait until the end of 2025 or early 2026.

Position of NATO and its Allies

- NATO countries generally support Ukraine's defense capabilities and emphasize its deterrent role against Russia.The Latvian Defense Minister said that Ukraine's striking targets within Russia is a legitimate right to self-defense.

The Finnish defense minister has warned that even if the war in Ukraine is over, Russia could still pose a threat to Europe.

To sum up, the current tensions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict are escalating. The United States and its allies may take further measures to put pressure on Russia, and the prospects for Russia-Ukraine peace talks remain unclear.