On October 10, Trump suddenly released a heavy news: To impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods exported to the United States。 Once this news was released, the three major U.S. stock indexes plummeted, and the market was in an uproar. Just as the outside world speculated whether China would fight back tough, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs set the tone with only one sentence: "I don't want to fight, but I'm not afraid of it."
A few days later, the situation suddenly turned straight, and the foreign media burst into the “pot”: Not only did China not rush to the challenge, but it quietly showed a trump card-rare earth export controlWhat is the real intention of China this time?Why is Trump suddenly “soft” after a high-profile scream?Behind this seemingly sharp confrontation, Is there a deeper game logic?
In August 2025, China imposed new restrictions on rare earth smelting quotas. At first, the outside world didn't pay much attention, but in September, when data came out, it was discovered that China's rare earth exports fell 30% year-on-year. This step was quickly seen by experts as a "warm-up" for the next round of countermeasures.
By the beginning of October, the Ministry of Commerce of China issued six announcements to clearly include rare earth-related technologies, equipment and materials together in the export control list, and both the exporters and recipients must be approved. This means that even if the United States wants to circumvent imports of rare earth from third countries, it will be difficult.
Also on October 10, Trump spoke on social media: From November 1, tariffs will be imposed on up to 100% of Chinese goods, and the overall tax rate will reach 130%.He also warned that tariffs would be put into effect in advance if China continues to “contract.”
From this, the foreign media immediately began to hype “China and the United States will completely disconnect” and “the global supply chain will be subverted”. but just when everyone thought the situation was impossible to fix, China’s response was unusually cold, only repeated that familiar statement: The door is open, the door is open, the door is open, the door is open.”
On October 12, the U.S. Trade Representative Griler suddenly "grabbed" the media, saying that China had not informed in advance of the content of rare earth export controls, the U.S. side knew through public channels, and also tried several times to contact the Chinese side but was "delayed call".
As soon as these words came out, foreign media immediately followed up the report, and some even used "China avoids communication" to exaggerate the atmosphere. However, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs quickly showed its attitude: the counter-measures had already been notified to the US through the bilateral communication mechanism, and everything was carried out in accordance with laws and regulations.
The controversy over “who breaks the agreement first” seems to have an answer as well. On September 12, the U.S. Department of Commerce included 23 China high-tech companies in the export control list, covering many important fields such as semiconductors and aerospace。
In just half a month, 19 new enterprises were added, and the so-called "transparency rules" were introduced, and even subsidiaries and holding companies of enterprises were sanctioned.
China certainly won't sit still. Just the day before Trump announced the tax increase, China also added a special port service fee for American ships, and extended the scope of application to ships with more than 25% of the US shares or flying the American flag. This is equivalent to opening up a new counter-measure battlefield in the shipping field. China's response is not a simple reciprocal counterattack, but a step-by-step and precise shot.
This is not the first time that China has played the "material card." As early as July last year, China implemented export controls on gallium and germanium. These two metals are irreplaceable key materials in fields such as 5G chips, infrared optics, and optical fiber communications.High-tech equipment in the United States cannot be separated from these materials.
Looking forward, rare earth has long been included in China’s strategic material management category. More than 60% of the world’s rare earth processing links are done in China.This is not a coincidence, but a systematic global industrial chain layout.
These regulatory measures are not “one cut”, but are regulated by “approval licensing”. That is, not not not to sell, but you have to apply, I am not approved, lots, to whom I say to sell. This is like installing a “valve” on the supply chain, which can control the flow and flow according to the situation.
This style of play can not only intensify contradictions, but also firmly hold the initiative. Foreign media also admitted that China's response strategy this time was "calm and fatal".The British "Financial Times" quoted Russian experts as saying that China did not seek direct confrontation, but attacked the weakest link of its opponents by precisely controlling the upstream supply chain of high-tech manufacturing.
This is a typical strategy for asymmetric games. The Trump administration's calculations are not difficult to understand. The domestic economy is in a downturn, monetary policy is weak, and election pressure is high. He urgently needs an external opponent to shift focus. Moreover, he knows well that creating tension on the eve of the APEC summit can force China to make concessions and gain bargaining chips for negotiations.
But I didn't expect that China would not buy this at all. On October 13, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin Jian directly named the name at a regular press conference: " Not only did the United States not reflect on itself, but threatened with high tariffs. This is not the right way to deal with China.”
The 14 words hit the nail on the head and directly exposed the United States '"double standards". Where does China's confidence come from? The first is a complete industrial chain and manufacturing system. Data shows that China's manufacturing industry has achieved full chain coverage, and most key materials such as artificial diamond, rare earth, gallium, and germanium come from China. Like artificial diamond powder, China accounts for more than 80% of the world's production, and the United States relies on China for 77% of imports.
These seemingly ordinary "industrial dust" are the gateway to the chip industry.In addition, the diversified layout of the Chinese market is also in motion. In 2023, China's exports to emerging markets grew by 11.3% and the countries along the "Belt and Road" became the new export growth pole.The dependence of Chinese enterprises on the dollar is weakening, and the rate of settlement of the RMB is gradually rising, and the trend of de-dollarization is becoming increasingly evident.
This means that the U.S. market is no longer the only option. China’s third card is the rich response experience to the trade war. Since the U.S. trade friction began in 2018, China has accumulated strategic reserves through several rounds of real warfare. From precisely fighting U.S. soybeans, cars, to controlling the export of critical materials, China has taken every step very steadily.
This is not an emotional counterattack, but an institutionalized, legal and compliant operation. Trump's "reciprocal tariff" policy is not only aimed at China, but also affects more than 180 countries around the world. The European Union, Japan, South Korea, Mexico and Canada are all affected. The German Chamber of Commerce and Industry even issued a warning: The global industrial chain may not be able to survive the second trade war。
But Trump doesn't seem to care. He cares most about the vote, is the "win-face". The door to the Sino-U.S. negotiations has never been closed. On May 10-11, the Sino-U.S. held high-level economic and trade talks in Geneva and agreed to establish a consultation mechanism. On July 28, the two sides met again in Stockholm and also reached a partial consensus to suspend part of reciprocal tariffs.
Unfortunately, these achievements, after September, were completely destroyed by U.S. sanctions operations. The U.S. speaks, fights, how to believe? Today's situation is already clear. In the hand, there are a number of cards, in the heart, in the face of the extreme pressure of the U.S., China chooses to rationalize, restrain and institutional counter-reaction. Who is creating a crisis, who is in a stable situation, the international community is clear.
Behind this escalation of the US-China trade war, not only tariffs and rare-earth disputes, but the deep competition of supply chain speech, science and technology development dominance. Through precise measures, China not only overcame external pressure, but also steadfastly in the global game.
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