At the moment, the Israeli conflict has entered the phase of a ceasefire, the detainees are gradually being released, and on the 13th, when Trump visited Israel, he made it clear that the Israeli war "has ended".

However, just as the smoke of the Pakistan-Israel conflict gradually dissipated, the long-lasting Russian-Ukrainian conflict came with three heavy news that the already tense situation may escalate further and may even trigger a wider chain reaction.

The British officers were taken away.

On the 12th, Russian media quoted military reports as saying that the Russian military launched a precision assault on the Churguev refinery in Kharkiv during the night, which killed more than 60 Ukrainian personnel and injured a large number of people.

What attracted more attention is that the Russian media clearly pointed out that the casualties included British officers and Ukrainian staff officers. Shortly after the attack, these injured senior personnel were urgently "carried" on helicopters by medical personnel and sent to Kharkiv's Ukrainian rear hospital for treatment.

Russian media further disclosed the background of the operation: Since last Wednesday, Ukrainian troops and foreign personnel have gathered at the Chuguyev Refinery. They secretly filled oil storage tanks and transformed them into temporary fuel supply points, suspected to be preparing for the follow-up. Prepare for a large-scale breakout operation. After the Russian army discovered this abnormality through reconnaissance satellites and ground intelligence networks, it quickly formulated a raid plan and finally launched the attack in the form of night air strikes.

So far, Ukraine has not made any response to this matter, and the British government has remained silent. But this news is not groundless. The international community has long speculated that Western military personnel are involved in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Although Ukraine, the United States and the West have always denied that there are active-duty soldiers directly participating in the war, all parties are well aware that there are a large number of Western personnel with military backgrounds in Ukraine-they either directly participate in the war as "mercenaries" or as "military advisers". "guide the Ukrainian army's operations in the name of" advisers ". Russia has repeatedly criticized the United States and the West for this before, believing that this is an in-depth intervention in the situation between Russia and Ukraine and a serious violation of the principle of neutrality.

It is worth noting that the assault took place in the context of intense Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy facilities. Recently, oil bases, refineries and other critical facilities in Russia were successively attacked by Ukrainian drones, causing several explosions and fires.

In the early morning of the 11th, Ukrainian long-range drones traveled thousands of miles for 1,400 kilometers and successfully attacked an oil refinery in Ufa, Russia, causing damage to key production equipment.

On the 13th, a report in the British "Financial Times" revealed the truth behind the Ukrainian army's precise strikes: In the past few months, the United States has been assisting Ukraine in launching long-range strikes on Russian energy facilities. The core method is to share intelligence to weaken Russia's economic strength. The U.S. intelligence support is not a simple transfer of information, but forms a complete "intelligence-strike-evaluation" closed loop-through satellite reconnaissance and signal interception to find out the air defense blind spots and power nodes of Russian refineries, and help Ukrainian drones plan The optimal flight path, determine flight altitude and attack timing to ensure that it can avoid detection by advanced air defense systems such as the S-400.

More dramatically, on October 1, the U.S. side officially announced that Trump had approved intelligence agencies and the Pentagon to provide relevant intelligence to Ukraine.In combination with the information disclosed by British media, U.S. intelligence support is likely to have been secretly carried out long before, and the public statement of October is more like a proactive ¡°stack¡± after ¡°do not hide¡±.

Russia warns that "everyone may suffer"

In addition to intelligence support, another U.S. move is pushing the situation to a more dangerous edge¡ªthe discussion of providing Ukraine with a ¡°strike ax¡± cruise missile has entered the final phase.

In the past week, the news about the Tomahawk missile continued to ferment: Ukraine confirmed that it was continuing to negotiate with the United States on this matter, while Trump publicly declared that he was "close to making a decision" and even openly pointed out that the range of the Tomahawk missile could cover Moscow. This weapon with a range of more than 1,600 kilometers and precision strike capabilities will completely change the current firepower balance if it enters the Ukrainian battlefield.

Russia quickly responded tough. The Kremlin first stated its position, saying that the Tomahawk missile could not change the war situation and that the Russian military already had a mature response plan, but at the same time warned that this move would lead to a complete deterioration of US-Russia relations and trigger "unpredictable and serious consequences."

On the 13th, Russian Security Council Vice Chairman Dmitry Medvedev made a more direct statement. He publicly issued a warning that the United States 'provision of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine "may cause everyone to suffer, especially Trump himself."

Medvedev emphasized a key risk point: ¡°Tax¡± missiles are a multifunctional weapon that can carry nuclear warheads. Once the Ukrainian army gets the missile and launches it, the Russian side can not determine in a short time whether the missile in the flight has a nuclear warhead, nor is it difficult to accurately determine the actual launcher ¨C after all, Ukraine does not have nuclear weapons, if the missile has a nuclear warhead, the source of the launch instructions most likely point to the United States.

This concern is not without foundation. Trump has revealed that if it decides to provide Tomahawk missiles, the United States will not directly deliver them to Ukraine, but will purchase them from the United States through NATO countries and then transfer them to Ukraine. This "transfer" operation may seem to allow the United States to evade direct responsibility, but it will invisibly drag NATO into the whirlpool of risks.

Russia has clearly suggested that if the situation arises, the response will be limited not only to Ukraine, but also to NATO countries such as the United States and the Federal Republic of Germany.Medvedev¡¯s warning that ¡°everyone could suffer¡± is based precisely on the prediction of this chain reaction.

Why is the Pentagon silent?

Just as the United States and Russia were competing fiercely over the Tomahawk missile, a piece of news revealed by Ukraine called into question the effectiveness of Western aid to Ukraine.

On the 13th, Romanenko, former deputy chief of staff of the General Staff of Ukraine, publicly stated that the actual interception rate of the Patriot air defense missile system assisted by the United States to Ukraine is dropping significantly, currently only about 6%. Earlier this year, the system's actual interception success rate in Ukraine reached 42%, a cliff-like decline in just a few months.

Roman Anarchy analyzes the two main reasons behind it. First, the Russian military¡¯s approach to attack has completed an upgraded iteration. In addition to continuously increasing airstrikes, the Russian military has recently frequently deployed cutting-edge weapons such as the ¡°Iskander-M¡± ballistic missiles and the ¡°Kinghead¡± high-speed hypersonic missiles, which fly fast and have strong defense capabilities, and the interception range of the ¡°Patriot¡± system is difficult to effectively cover.

Second, Western aid to Ukraine has loosened, and Ukraine's "Patriot" missile inventory has been seriously insufficient and cannot form a dense interception network; At the same time, the Russian army has figured out the deployment rules of the "Patriot" through long-term reconnaissance, and will deliberately avoid its dense defense areas during air strikes, further reducing the success rate of interception.

To this crucial message, the U.S. Pentagon chose the rare silence, neither denied nor responded, an attitude interpreted by the outside as a default on the effectiveness of aid to Ukraine.

After the Ukrainian army intensively attacked Russian energy facilities, Russia has urgently deployed the S-350 air defense system and the "Pantsir-S1" integrated artillery system around key targets such as oil refineries, while strengthening electronic jamming, which has previously caused Ukrainian The hit rate of military drones has dropped significantly.

From the raid on the Chuguyev refinery, to the game of the "Tomahawk" missile, to the failure of the "Patriot" system, the confrontational dimension of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is constantly escalating. The deep involvement of the United States and the West did not bring the expected advantages, but instead allowed the risk boundaries of conflicts to continue to expand; Russia's countermeasures are becoming more and more precise, and the continued stalemate between the two sides will only make the situation slide in a more dangerous direction.

The ceasefire in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has made people see the possibility of peace, but new developments on the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield have sounded the alarm. War will always bring destruction and suffering. No matter how military means are escalated, it is ordinary people who will ultimately bear the price. It is hoped that all parties can curb the escalation of conflicts in time, return to the track of dialogue and negotiation, and let peace come to this war-torn land at an early date.

Source of information:

Details of U.S. assistance in Ukraine's crackdown on Russian energy facilities disclosed: World Wide Web-Foreign media broke out! Senior U.S. officials confirm that the U.S. has long since left

Russia warns U.S.-U.A. of ¡°strike-axis¡± missile risks: Xinhua-Russia Security Conference Vice-President warns U.S. to provide ¡°strike-axis¡± missile consequences

The interception rate of the "Patriot" air defense system drops: CCTV News-Former Ukrainian deputy chief of staff talks about changes in the interception rate of the "Patriot" system

Russian military assault on Harkov state refinery: reference news - Russian media reports Russian military assault on Ukrainian gathering points