Have you read the news recently? Pakistan and Afghanistan are fighting on the border again. This is the second exchange of fire in a week, and the scene is even more intense than the last time. On the evening of October 14th, gunfire and explosions didn't stop on the border in northwest Pakistan. The Pakistani army directly fought head-on with Afghan armed men and the Pakistani Taliban (that is, Bata), and the two sides fought fiercely.
The report of the Pakistani military found that they said this was an active counterattack, which not only destroyed several posts on the Afghan side, but also tanks and so-called "foreign terrorist training camps", but also killed a lot of militants.
However, the Afghan side is rather vague. It only admits that there is indeed a conflict, does not mention specific casualties, and only emphasizes that "it will resolutely defend the territory." Typically, everyone has their own reasons, and no one is willing to give in. Actually, this is not the first conflict recently. There was already a round of confrontation late at night on October 11th, and that time it was even harder.
The Pakistani military said at the time that the armistice killed 200 militants, on its side also 23 people killed, 29 people were wounded, and also briefly occupied 21 posts in Afghanistan, which is "significant war." but the affirmation of the Afghan side is completely different, they say that they killed 58 people on the Pakistani side, on their side 9 dead and 16 wounded, in their mouths saying "will to dialogue to resolve", the gun in their hands has not stopped, the war reports on both sides are almost half a point.
To say the most about this is the two foolish “Taliban brothers” – the Afghan Taliban (Ata) and the Pakistani Taliban (Bata). don’t think they are both called “Taliban” and are “relatives” of the same race, but the relationship is now tighter than the plastic sisters.
Let's talk about the Afghan Taliban (Atta) first, which is the current "talker" in Afghanistan. They started in 1994. After the U.S. troops withdrew from Afghanistan in 2021, they directly returned to power. On the surface, they have been carrying the "anti-American banner" and look quite tough. But actually? They are having a hard time now. The biggest worry is that the overseas assets of nearly 10 billion U.S. dollars have been frozen. If they want to unfreeze them, they have to look at the face of the United States. A typical example is that "you know that daily necessities and rice are expensive when you are in charge."
Looking at the Pakistan Taliban (Bata), this is a "thorn next door." They only emerged in 2007 and have been active in northwest Pakistan. They are "born with the same roots" as Atta. However, they specifically picked on Pakistan to do things, bombed outposts and attacked, and made Pakistan miserable. What was even more irritating was that they couldn't defeat the Pakistan army, so they ran to Afghanistan and hid in Atta's territory, making Pakistan stomping its feet angrily.
The most interesting thing is Atta's attitude. After taking power, they released many Bata members. As a result, Bata turned around and turned against Pakistan and continued to carry out attacks. However, due to tribal blood and religious identity, Ata was unwilling to completely cut off from Bata, so he "turned a blind eye" and pushed Pakistan to the point where he could not bear it. If you don't care, I will do it myself.
Pakistan is so tough this time, not only because Bata is "cross-border peek-and-seek", but more importantly, Bata is also hooking up with India! Think about it, Pakistan and India are old rivals to begin with. After Bata ran to Afghanistan, not only did he not restrain himself, he also colluded with Indian forces. This is equivalent to stabbing a knife in the back of Pakistan. Who could tolerate it?
There has been a rumor before that Pakistan airstrikes Bata hiding in Kabul and Paktika province, this time directly at the border, is essentially the outbreak of the total outbreak of Ata "tolerance" Bata. The conflict escalated, the most unfortunate is the people of the border, Tolham port in Nanjinghar province of Afghanistan was closed directly, a large number of freight trucks in the row was stuck, goods could not enter or ship out, people first suffered.
Someone may ask, why does not ATA just drive BATA out? it is easy to say it is difficult to do, there is too much "humanity and world" involved, and it is more useful than national boundaries. In the eyes of the PUSTU tribe, family and bloodline are more important than anything, ATA and BATA are of the same origin, and there are relatives between many members, what can be said to be broken?
In addition, the terrain of the border area is too complicated, the canyon is crossed, the language is connected, and the appearance of the people is almost the same, Bata hides in the mountains at any rate, Atta does not want to catch, let alone take the initiative to clean up.
Moreover, historically, Pakistan once supported Atta and wanted to rely on Atta to exchange for peace on the border. As a result, Atta wanted to be the master of the country after taking power and no longer wanted to listen to Pakistan's command. The former "ally" became an "uncontrollable neighbor." This historical issue also complicated the situation.
Of course, there is another "malicious" role in this muddy water-the United States. The United States is not idle, taking Afghanistan's nearly 10 billion U.S. dollars of overseas assets as a bargaining chip to tempt Atta to compromise. For a while, it said, "It's ok to unfreeze assets, but you have to cooperate with my request", and for a while, it said, "Don't want to get the money without reform", which confused Atta.
On the other hand, the United States is still fanning the flames behind its scenes, trying to drag Pakistan, Central Asian countries, even China and Russia into chaos through the contradiction between Bata and Atta. Think about it, Central Asia is a key area of geopolitics. If the United States can disrupt this place, it can contain the development of China and Russia. This abacus is too precise.
In the face of this situation, the attitude of the parties is also interesting. on the Pakistani side, President Zardari and Prime Minister Shabaz both expressed, hard-hearted response to "provocation", in the question of sovereignty, clearly pushed by the operation of Bata and Ata to the corner of the wall, this time is iron-hearted to counter.
Atta is the typical "mouth hard and soft", on the other hand to "defend the territorial integrity", and on the other hand shouted "will to dialogue to resolve", is actually caught in the middle of domestic pressure and U.S. code. not to confront Pakistan, appear to have no face; really confront, and afraid of the United States to freeze assets, also to worry about the domestic situation is unstable, is simply "the belly of the enemy."
China's attitude is very clear-it will not recognize or interfere. The core of not recognizing the Atta interim government is that they can't stand their extreme religionism and refusal to reform. After all, it is difficult for a government that is unwilling to make progress and does not respect human rights to gain recognition from the international community.
And China also knows that this is too complicated, and it will only cause trouble, rather than keep an eye on the conspiracy of the United States. So how will the situation go next? In the short term, the conflict will definitely not stop. From 11 to 14 two times a week, the two sides are dead and wounded but do not separate the victory, the border friction will only interrupt the continuation, today you bomb me a post, tomorrow I re-attack, it is difficult to have a substantial breakthrough.
In the long run, the key to reconciliation lies in the tribe. As long as the tribal blood ties are still there and the terrain has not changed, Atta cannot be completely cut from Bata, and Pakistan can only "fight for a while and rest for a while" and fall into a cycle of "strike-flee-strike again", trying to completely solve Bata. The problem is too difficult.